203 posts categorized "Sports"

07/08/2011

Falmouth Stakes, Cherry Hinton Stakes, Newmarket July Festival Day 2 Assessed Market Prices & Odds

After a very successful day on Thursday we tackle the Falmouth Stakes at G1 level and The Cherry Hinton at Group 2 level for Fridays Newmarket July Festival action along with other races from Ascot & York. For the best value win bets, place bets and lay bets just follow these ratings and bet accordingly by following the assessed odds for each runner to identify the best value in each race.

Newmarket 3.00 - 1m 90K G1 3yo+f&m
No1 Antara        14.00
No2 First City        25.00
No3 I'm A Dreamer    9.50
No4 Lily Of The Valley    5.50
No5 River Jetez        6.50
No6 Sahpresa        8.30
No7 Timepiece        23.00
No8 Joviality        11.00
No9 Maqaasid        8.30
No10 Masaya        51.00
No11 Memory        15.00

Newmarket 2.25 - 6f 34K G2 2yof
No1 Betty Fontaine    55.00
No2 Caledonia Lady    19.00
No3 Gamilati        8.20   
No4 Illaunglass        17.50
No5 Inetrobil        10.30
No6 Miss Work Of Art    25.50
No7 My Propeller    3.60
No8 Pink Sapphire    29.00
No9 Ruselliana        14.00
No10 Sajwah        22.00
No11 Shumoos        5.50

York 2.35 - 6f 29K G3 3yo+f&m
No1 Anne Of Kiev    11.00
No2 Dever Dream        19.00
No3 Dubai Media        31.00
No4 Picadilly Filly    13.00
No5 Puff        5.70
No6 Rose Blossom    11.00
No7 Sioux Rising    8.50
No8 Swiss Diva        6.10
No9 Ladies Are Forever    8.00
No10 Show Rainbow    13.00

Ascot 3.25 - 6f110y 6.4K C4 2yo
No1 Red Seventy        4.00
No2 Sixx        3.80
No3 Abshir Zian        13.50
No4 Bellechance        17.00
No5 Poetic Dancer    2.85

York 4.20 - 7f 7.4K C3 3yo 0-95
No1 Zenella        4.40
No2 Rigoletto        7.20
No3 Glady's Gal        13.00
No4 Firebeam        6.50
No5 Ashva        7.50
No6 Robert The Painter    28.00
No7 Fieldgunner Kirkup    16.00
No8 Iceblast        13.00
No9 Fityaan        20.00
No10 City Legend    15.00

For more high quality betting information for AUS, UK & USA horse racing daily for FREE visit www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

07/07/2011

Newmarket July Festival Day 1 UK Horse Racing Assessed Markets

The Newmarket July Festival starts on Thursday for UK horse racing enthusiasts with a high quality card at Newmarket supported by good quality betting meetings at Folkestone and Warwick during the day that we have also assessed and handicapped for this post. Ratings for a total of 12 races are listed below. Each horse is rated to our value price point in a market set to approximately 100%.

Newmarket 1.20 - 13f 28K G3 3yo
14.00 - No1 Census
38.00 - No2 Crimson Knight
5.50 - No3 Hurricane Higgins
6.20 - No4 Marked Marvel
3.50 - No5 Solar sky
3.30 - No6 Zain Al Boldan

Newmarket 1.50 - 6f 34K G2 2yoc&g
25.00 - No1 Bannock
13.00 - No2 Church Music
4.00 - No3 Frederick Engels
51.00 - No4 Kenny Powers
6.00 - No5 North Star Boy
6.50 - No6 Right To Dream
3.70 - No7 Roman soldier
21.00 - No8 Sans Loi

Newmarket 3.00 - 12f 45K G2 3yo+
16.00 - No1 Afsare
7.50 - No2 Campanolo*ist
9.50 - No4 Laaheeb
5.20 - No5 Redwood
15.00 - No6 Tedspread
6.00 - No7 Crystal Capella
10.50 - No8 Myplacelater
9.50 - No9 Buthelizi
8.00 - No10 Dordogne

Newmarket 3.35 - 6f 7.7K C3 2yo
6.00 - No1 Hadaj
3.40 - No2 Harbour Watch
3.70 - No3 Burwaaz
5.40 - No4 Citizen's Character
18.00 - No5 Bellechance
30.00 - No6 Dawn Lightning

Newmarket 4.05 - 8f 8K C3 3yo
6.60 - No1 Casual Glimpse
2.30 - No2 Fury
5.60 - No3 Cai Sheen
10.50 - No4 Bridgefield
7.00 - No5 Slim Shadey

Folkestone 2.05 - 7f 1.7K C6 3yo
2.30 - No1 Perfect Cracker
18.00 - No2 Samanda
14.00 - No3 Semmsu
121.00 - No4 Trust Me Boy
7.00 - No5 Celestyna
14.00 - No6 Elusive Diva
4.60 - No7 Swift Bird

Folkestone 2.40 - 5f 3.1K C5 2yof
12.00 - No1 Almirah
9.60 - No2 Dine Out
30.00 - No3 Especially Red
11.00 - No4 Misred Melissa
61.00 - No5 Monessa
1.40 - No6 Pearl Diva

Folkestone 3.15 - 5f 2.3K C5 3yo+ 0-70
7.20 - No1 Make My Dream
3.30 - No2 Your Gifted
5.80 - No3 Athwaab
6.50 - No4 Musical Bridge
5.80 - No5 Commandingpresence
11.00 - No6 Durgan

Folkestone 4.20 - 12f 2.3K C5 3yo 0-70
4.30 - No1 Brezza Di Mare
6.60 - No2 Dare To Bare
4.00 - No3 Fire Fighter
4.30 - No4 Astromagick
6.60 - No5 Drumadoon

Folkestone 4.50 - 9f149y 2.3K C5 3yo+f 0-70
4.70 - No1 Sweet Secret
4.20 - No2 Choral Festival
6.00 - No3 Woop Woop
5.20 - No4 Chatterer
11.00 - No5 Full Bloom
19.00 - No6 Lady Barastar
14.00 - No7 Out Of The Storm

Warwick 3.55 7f26y 5.1K C4 3yo+ 0-80
4.70 - No1 No Poppy
7.60 - No2 Queen Of Cash
11.00 - No3 Camache Queen
8.00 - No4 Poyle Judy
4.20 - No5 Saskia's Dream
8.00 - No6 Mrs Greeley
25.00 - No7 Herminella
16.00 - No8 Ellie In The Pink

Warwick 5.35 5f 2.5K 3yo 0-75 6.00par
5.70 - No1 Scarlet Rocks
10.00 - No2 Sugar Beet
4.60 - No3 Midnight Rider
14.00 - No4 Liberty Green
4.00 - No5 Farlow
8.80 - No6 Whitecrest
55.00 - No7 Brian Sprout
18.00 - No8 Porthgwidden Beach

For more high quality betting information for AUS, UK & USA horse racing daily for FREE visit www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

07/01/2011

Wodonga Race Notes - Saturday 2 July 2011

Notes from our analysts for the Wodonga race meeting scheduled in Australia on Saturday 2 July 2011, plenty of good value betting prospects to be had.

Wodonga R1
No6 Vacherin (1) - 2 trial wins in prep for debut suggest above this level, well bred by Antonius Pius, 3rdd dam high class French multiple black type winner, alley a minor concern drawn in 12 but booking of good hoop Luke Currie a bonus, overly average type of 2yo maiden for the tag, every chance.

Wodonga R2
No4 Notius (3) - looks overly hard to beat drawn a perfect gate on the back of deceivingly strong maiden placings suggesting minimum 1 level above class required to win here.
No7 Ed's Folly (1) - shocking gate but trial 2nd in prep for return and 2nd up 1.7l 4th last prep both suggest potentially above the level required to win here, blinkers go on 1st time, back if at odds.

Wodonga R3
No10 Carbon Spirit (1) - very good merit in last start 5th, got back to last and btn 5.1l on line but form of those around it very good, well bred, good scope for more naturally, well drawn
No8 Romantic Tiger (1) - good ob debut 2nd at Kilmore over 1212m, best of the on pacers, failed 2nd up, deceivingly well bred by Hold That Tiger out of the very good country sprinter Romantic Sea, bad gate the only big negative but does have very good gate speed, may cross without working too hard and prove hard to run down.
No2 Alzone

Wodonga R5
No13 Mancarifo (1) - 15+?, comes out of a very good merit 3rd at Swan Hill last start, big closing pars, scope for more only 2nd career start that day, 1st home won at Morphettville next start and 2nd home broke maiden by 5l at Ararat next start, gets a good gate
No7 Renounce (1) - 15?, placed 7 of last 8, this about weakest it has faced and every chance in this company, overly well bred by God's Own out of the high class race mare Spurn, bad gate, astute yard.

Wodonga R6
No4 Manicero - 3.20
No6 Rathbarry - 6.00
No3 Livia - 6.50
No1 Murdoch's Joy - 6.50

Wodonga R7
No9 Powerhouse - 15+??, oof/lr
No17 Beaten By The Bell - 12+??, decent merit associated to Picnic win at Corowa 2 back over 1200m, ran 0.32s quicker than Wonderling and drops 5kg compared to Wonderling dropping 1kg here, scope for more up to 1400m, drawn well, good pace profile for this race drawn in the 2 alley, may surprise at big odds.

Wodonga R8
No8 Provindential - 15+?, drawn the 1 alley, major seen chance on 1200m from across last prep, scope for more on 1st up effort btn 1.9l at Seymour over shorter vs stronger than advertised grade here, drawn the 1 alley for one of the runs of the race.
No14 Meet Barney - 15+?, well in on maiden win at Geelong 3 back over 1000m, scope for more this trip, likely good trip, gets run as 1st emergency with Onamissionfromgod an early scratching,
No5 Boy Incredible - 12-15+?, decent claims on maiden win last prep, lightly raced, deceivingly well bred, scope for more
No9 Bleaching - 12-15+?, looked good big closing pard winning 2 back, has won vs stronger, warrants respect
No3 Rab - 15+??,
No17 Till Dawn - 12-15+??

Get more high quality betting information daily at www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

05/11/2011

York 1.30 On Wednesday Full Of Value To Kick Off Dante Meeting

The York Dante festival / meeting kicks off on Wednesday for UK horse racing followers and FromTheHorsesMouth followers and the first race on the card (1.30 Infinity Tyres Stakes) shapes as a good value betting affair with a big field of 20 engaged. Our analysts have found enough depth in the market to back 4 runners here for a result across the race.

York 1.30 - Very open affair with 20 runners engaged, hard to line them up with big confidence but the value on offer about the ones we like here makes it a potential good betting affair, realistically it will take a horse of potential Group quality to win here, likely trips also become paramount with such a big field engaged. We will back a few here for a result across the race. No18 CALDERCRUIX shapes as being well placed here and gets in very well weighted vs most of the other seen major chances, off the boil towards the 2nd half of last season but its effort running 2nd to Monterosso at Newmarket over 10f reads well, a repeat of that form will see it shake this at a big price, being bet at 40.00 on the exchanges early, great value, No1 RESURGE has a big weight to carry but looked to have hit a new peak 1st up last start when 2nd to Spanish Duke btn 1l at Epsom with good margins further back adding considerable depth to the form, being bet at 30.00 early it has to be included. No10 DIESCENTRIC has only faced the starter twice and won on debut over 8f at Newmarket last season and must be respected on that form reference, it has scope to improve considerably being so lightly raced and the yard is in very good form, currently being bet at 10.00 it is worth minor support, No20 PEKAN STAR has a shocking gate but gets in very well weighted as a lightly tried son of Montjeu for the astute Roger Varian yard who is placing his horses to perfection early in the season, at 7.80 on the exchanges we must save on it.

No18 CALDERCRUIX - 1 unit win @ 40.00
No1 RESURGE - 1 unit @ 30.00
No10 DIESCENTRIC - 2 units @ 10.00
No20 PEKAN STAR - 2 units @ 7.80

Both Caldercruix and Resurge can be backed in the PLACE market at very good odds for place punters as well.

For more high quality racing analysis and profitable betting tips & picks daily for USA horse racing, UK horse racing and Australian horse racing visit our website, facebook page or blog

To find out more about Fifty50Share - The premier betting service on the internet, no upfront membership fees, pay from profit, fully managed via automated betting bot technology, professional value seeking form analysis of all horse racing in Australia and The UK - then go to our main website and access TheFifty50share section

05/07/2011

Goodwood Handicap Card At Morphettville On Sunday - Analysis And Picks For The Early Races

Plenty of value to be had on the good card put together for the Goodwood Handicap meeting at Morphettville on Sunday. The first 4 races in particyular offer up plenty of strong betting races with double figured odds horses chance in most races.

After knocking off December Draw at better than 30/1 at Flemington on Saturday punters should not be gun shy about us finding more big priced winners on Sunday.

Here is what our analysts have to say about the first 4 races on the card.

Morphettville R1 - Very tricky race to be confident about, the 2 that make the most appeal are Light Touch & Sport Chic, Light touch was 2nd to Manhattan Maid last start but its trial win prior suggests it is better than that 1st up effort, natural scope for more, capable of turning the tables. Sport Chic is a very well bred 1st starter by Redoute's Choice out of the stakes winning Red Ransom mare Cinque with D Oliver up for this debut run in Listed company. Light Touch is 7.50 & Sport Chic is 15.00 in early fixed odds markets on Saturday.

Morphettville R2 No2 Fashion & No8 Dubai Me Diamonds - decent confidence betting race for us, especially considering the value on offer about these top 2 choices, Heath Conners seems to have found the secret to FASHION now, the very well bred Encosta De Lago 3yo filly broke her maiden by a big margin at Ballarat 2 back then franked that win winning in Open 3yof company at Flemington over 1400m, showed big promise as a 2yo with close 2nd to Skilled before that horse won the Champagne and ran 2nd to Yosei in the Sires Produce, definitely up to winning this on those form refs, DUBAI ME DIAMONDS looked very smart last prep when knocking off Always Discreet by 3l with a further 8l to 3rd, she is 2 from 2 this prep and capable of hitting a new peak here, if so it shakes this at double figure odds. Fashion can be backed at 6.00 in early fixed odds markets and Dubai Me Diamonds can be backed at 12.00, back both to win for a result across the race.

Morphettville R3 No5 Conduction & No13 Protector - very big confidence betting race that offers up great value, CONDUCTION is the clear cut top elect on the back of its high merit 2nd to Simply Boogie last start over this track and distance, they streeted their foes that day and not all of the beaten brigade could be that far below their true form, the top 2 simply hit new peaks and Conduction should hold that level here, if it does it wins, the major seen danger is the Stratum gelding drawn down on the rail to secure a good trip in the form of Protector, its win at Balaklava 2 back suggests it has considerable scope for more and last start it was well below par at Oakbank, looked as though it didnt handle the track that day and performance too far below par to be true, on debut finished 3rd to Toorak Toff and Lone Rock, that effort also hinted at above average ability, Conduction is 5.00 in early fixed odds markets, the major bet, Protector is 13.00 in early fixed odds markets, back in support of top elect.

Morphettville R4 No14 Paris Memory & No16 Maraaseem - potentially a massive value betting race and level of confidence vs value is good, the 3 major chances in our assessment are all progeny of the leading sire in the country Redoute's Choice, one of them is the favorite Platinum Passion but the value is with the other two that leading sire has engaged here being Paris Memory and Maraaseem, Paris Memory is out of the Bluebird mare Forget Paris and she is a half sister to 2 stakes winners one of them being Twiglet who herself has produced 3 stakes winners including the high class Easy rocking & Fairy King Prawn, Corey Brown is booked and from the 1 alley she is assured a good ground saving trip, she has always hinted at above average ability including early on when splitting 2 high class fillies in a trial at Cranbourne between Rostova and Absolute Faith, she then won 1st up that prep knocking off Livia with Zantelagh btn 5l+ further back, she won 1st up this prep hinting at a good staying preperation and then franked that winning 3rd up knocking off the potentially smart Sheahan with a big margin back to 3rd which was Street Belle, a form line can be taken through that horse directly back to Platinum Passion giving Paris Memory a 3.5kg pull at the weights over Platinum Passion, plenty to like, priced up in early fixed odds markets at 31.00, big overs, the other one by Redoute's Choice worth backing is the David Hayes trained 3yo filly Maraaseem, her 3rd up win 2 starts ago suggested she is getting back to the form she hinted at last preperation when she chased home Brazilian Pulse to finish 2l 6th in the Wakeful Stakes at G2 level, a repeat of that form puts it in this up to its ears, currently on offer at 34.00 in early fixed odds markets. So back both No14 Paris Memory at 31.00 for the win & No16 Maraaseem at 34.00 for the win, both can also be backed for the place on offer at 8.50 & 9.50 respectively in early fixed odds markets at www.tabonline.com.au

For more high quality racing analysis and profitable betting tips & picks daily for USA horse racing, UK horse racing and Australian horse racing visit our website, facebook page or blog

To find out more about Fifty50Share - The premier betting service on the internet, no upfront membership fees, pay from profit, fully managed via automated betting bot technology, professional value seeking form analysis of all horse racing in Australia and The UK - then go to our main website and access TheFifty50share section

05/06/2011

Goodwood Handicap Day At Morphettville & Hollindale Stakes Day At The Gold Coast Trainer Interviews

A good lead can be taken with the series of 5 trainer interviews put together by by the guys at www.sportingbet.com.au for the upcoming feature Australian Group races on the weekend covering the Gold Coast on Saturday (Hollindale Cup meeting) & Morphettville on Sunday (Goodwood Handicap meeting).

We will be providing detailed betting advice for both of these meetings. Gold Coast preview live on Friday evening and Morphettville preview live on Saturday evening at www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

Horse Racing - Hollindale Stakes Preview - Wayne Hawkes

 

Horse Racing - GOODWOOD HCP Day Preview - Mark Kavanagh

 

Horse Racing - GOODWOOD HCP Day Preview - Simon Zahra

 

Horse Racing - GOODWOOD HCP Day Preview - David Hayes

Horse Racing - GOODWOOD HCP Day Preview - Nigel Blackiston

 

For more high quality racing analysis and profitable betting tips & picks daily for USA horse racing, UK horse racing and Australian horse racing visit our website, facebook page or blog

To find out more about Fifty50Share - The premier betting service on the internet, no upfront membership fees, pay from profit, fully managed via automated betting bot technology, professional value seeking form analysis of all horse racing in Australia and The UK - then go to our main website and access TheFifty50share section

Speck Aroc At Big Odds

The main South Australian meeting for the weekend is on Sunday at Morphettville including the running of the South Australian Derby and the Goodwood Handicap. We will be covering that meeting in full on www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au. We are still playing in South Australia at Gawler on Saturday though on what is shaping up as a good value betting card and one that can be specked at big odds in Race 2 on the Gawler betting card is Aroc.

Here is our analysts assessment of its form and chance in the race.

Gawler R2 No3 Aroc - no major confidence here but this one warrants specking at a likely big price, well beaten both official race starts but trial form prior winning 3 trials on end and then trial 2nd since those 2 race failures all reads relatively strong for this race, big bonus drawn the inside gate, if it can hit that trial level form it can shake this at a likely big double figure price, well bred for speed by Stratum out of a Dehere mare who in turn is out of a Rory's Jester mare who has produced a stakes winning sprinter, purely each way specking material.

So the bet is......

Gawler R2 No3 Aroc - 1 unit win and 2 units place, is being offered at 15/1 in prepost markets but we feel it will be bet closer to the 20/1 mark, minimum price required is 12/1.

For more high quality racing analysis and profitable betting tips & picks daily for USA horse racing, UK horse racing and Australian horse racing visit our website, facebook page or blog

To find out more about Fifty50Share - The premier betting service on the internet, no upfront membership fees, pay from profit, fully managed via automated betting bot technology, professional value seeking form analysis of all horse racing in Australia and The UK - then go to our main website and access TheFifty50share section

Kentucky Derby Analysis And Preview 2011 - Churchill Downs - USA Horse Racing

The 2011 Kentucky Derby shapes as a very good value betting affair with a wide open market suggesting plenty of chances. We have handicapped the race top to bottom and have identified 7 horses that are capable of figuring in the exotics and have identified 2 that can be backed with decent confidence in the win betting market for a result across the race.

Our predicted order of finishing is as follows....

  • 1st #18 Uncle Mo
  • 2nd #11 Master Of Hounds
  • 3rd #8 Dialed In
  • 4th #17 Soldat
  • 5th #4 Stay Thirsty
  • 6th #14 Shackleford
  • 7th #15 Midnight Interlude

Our assessment of each horse from a handicapping perspective along with key race videos for the 2 win betting chances Uncle Mo and Master Of Hounds is as follows.

No18 Uncle Mo - the biggest query for Uncle Mo is the shocking alley it has drawn out near the carpark, his Breeders Cup Juvenile win was high class and still to this day the strongest form reference in this race by far, the way he repelled Boys At Tosconova and went away from the rest of the field in the stretch was the sign of a top class horse of the highest order, won a strong renewal of the Timely Writer (mild hand ride in stretch, plenty of improvement on that run) 1st up for 3yo season back on March 12 and form refs out of that race back through the likes of recent G2 winner Adios Charlie suggest it retains all of its 2yo ability and dominance, forget the Wood Memorial run last start, it was simply too bad to believe, if he can negate the wide gate and get a softish on pace trip he wins. Need 4.00+ for value.

Uncle Mo - Key Run - Breeders Cup Juvenile 2010

 

No11 Master Of Hounds - the simple fact that an Aidan O'Brien trained runner shows up for the Kentucky Derby has to be respected, sure to have come on significantly since finishing 2nd in the UAE Derby, good effort with margin to 3rd, finished 3rd in a good renewal of the Racing Post Trophy G1 as a 2yo at Doncaster and that was on the back of running 2nd to subsequent G1 winner Roderic o'Connor 2 starts earlier who is one of the few horses to get within 2 lengths of the mighty Frankel, drawn Ok in the 11 alley to secure one of the runs of the race, superbly bred by Kingmambo out of the very well related Sadler's Wells mare Silk And Scarlet, the big surprise horse, priced up at 31.00 in prepost markets, massive overs, warrants specking in support of top elect Uncle Mo

Master Of Hounds - Key Run - UAE Derby 2011

 

No8 Dialed In - prepost favorite on the back of winning the Florida Derby last start by a head over Shackleford, looks the strongest current form ref and likely for a good trip from the 8 alley but does look 1 level below the form of Uncle Mo if the real Uncle Mo shows up.

No17 Soldat - forget last start failure behind Dialed In in the Florida Derby, win the start prior by 2l in the G2 Fountain Of Youth reads completely different and on a par with Dialed In, wide gate the big query as it is at its best when making all, must be included in exotics.

No4 Stay Thirsty - has failed 2 of last 3 starts behind both Uncle Mo in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and then last start behind Dialed In, in between won the G3 Gotham suggesting is clearly better than those 2 failures suggest and also was a strong 2nd to Boys At Toscanova in the G1 Hopeful which once again contradicts the btn margin behind Uncle Mo in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, likely perfect trip from the 4 alley, has to be respected, one of the horses capable of springing a big odds upset, same owners as Uncle Mo.

No14 Shackleford - winner 3 of 5 in short career, forget failure 2 back btn 23l by Soldat, clearly better than that run suggests, got blowsed by Dialed In in the Florida Derby last start, gate creates a big query due to being at best trying to make all.

No15 Midnight Interlude - came of age last start winning the Santa Anita Derby after a facile wide margin maiden win, bred to stay the trip by War Chant out of a New Zealand bred Groom Dancer mare, stamina strong on bottom half of pedigree, astute yard who have won this race 3 times, must be respected.

Betting Advice

Win Betting

Churchill Downs R11 No18 Uncle Mo - 3 unit win bet @ 6.60+ on Betfair (may hit 7.00)

Churchill Downs R11 No11 Master Of Hounds - 1 unit win bet @ 24.00+ on Betfair (likely to drift further closer to post, European money will keep it under until then)

Exotic Betting

Bet with decent confidenceo f nailing the exotics playing with the numbers of the top 7 chances listed above.

For more high quality racing analysis and profitable betting tips & picks daily for USA horse racing, UK horse racing and Australian horse racing visit our website, facebook page or blog

To find out more about Fifty50Share - The premier betting service on the internet, no upfront membership fees, pay from profit, fully managed via automated betting bot technology, professional value seeking form analysis of all horse racing in Australia and The UK - then go to our main website and access TheFifty50share section

05/05/2011

Kentucky Oaks Card At Chruchill Downs Offers Up 3 Good Quality Bets On Friday

The G1 Kentucky Oaks is the major drawcard on Friday at Churchill Downs but a fantastic undercard of betting is the major attraction for us with the Kentucky Oaks a hard race to handicap. 5 live chances there but 3 of the other stakes races on the day offer up good confidence betting opportunities.

We will also be providing a detailed coverage of the Kentucky Derby card in an upcoming post.

We start off with Unrivaled Belle is the G2 La Troienne

Churchill Downs R6 No8 Unrivaled Belle - won the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic end of last season holding sway over a hard closing Blind Luck, confident that wont be reversed here with Blind Luck flattening her ratings level next 3 starts whilst this one is capable of hitting that peak again, a bit of speed drawn inside it but likely to stalk the leaders waiting, if it gets cover it will prove hard to hold out in deep stretch with an obvious seen class edge over most of these. Need 3.20+ for value.

Unrivalled Belle - Key Run - Breeders Cup Ladies Classic 2010

 

The next high quality bet on the card comes along in the G3 Eight Belles Stakes

Churchill Downs R8 No1 Arienza - very well bred type by Giant's Causeway out of the former top class race mare Azeri, $800K yearling purchase at Keeneland Sept 09, tried over too far last start when a wilting 2nd to Joyful Victory (G2 Fantasy) who looks one of the major hopes in the Oaks later on this same card, won first 2 career starts and really liked the way it turned away Hidasta and Explosive Disco when trying a mile for the first time in 2nd career win Optional Claimer $60K company, 6 of the 7 horses it beat that day had finished 1st or 2nd at their previous start, the form ref through Explosive disco 3rd btn 7l reads very strong, start prior it finished 2nd to a picket fence winner All About Town and 2 back broke its maiden by 9l with 2nd home in that race winning next start, Arienza likely to get the run of the race drawn the inside gate and can either lead or take sit stalking on leaders heels, either way will be afforded a near perfect trip, sharp turn of foot should see it hold sway at the business end. Need 3.70+ for value.

Arienza - Key Run - Oaklawn Park Optional Claimer $60K

 

The 3rd good bet on the card comes up in the G2 American Turf Stakes

Churchill Downs R10 No3 Banned - 2nd up from a spell on the back of being btn 0.3l 3rd in Allowance company at Keeneland over a mile, got caught 3 deep no cover and had the toughest trip of all that day, fitness gave way, 2nd up fitter now, visually very impressive winning 2 on end on turf as a 2yo last season by 3l and 5l, both times showed a sharp turn of foot and widened the margin to the line, its 2nd win over Lil Bit O'Fun has seen the form since franked with that horse a 1l 4th to Air Support in the G3 Transylvanian at its latest start, 5th and 7th home that day also won next start and 8 of the 10 horses he beat that day were last start winners, likely for a perfect stalking trip on the leaders back with one of the runs of the race from the 3 alley, bred to handle turf by Kitten's Joy out of a Capote mare and has already shown a liking to rain effected ground when breaking its maiden on yielding ground in impressive fashion. Need 3.50+ for value.

Banned - Key Run - Keeneland Allowance $49K

 

For more high quality racing analysis and profitable betting tips & picks daily for USA horse racing, UK horse racing and Australian horse racing visit our website, facebook page or blog

To find out more about Fifty50Share - The premier betting service on the internet, no upfront membership fees, pay from profit, fully managed via automated betting bot technology, professional value seeking form analysis of all horse racing in Australia and The UK - then go to our main website and access TheFifty50share section

05/03/2011

Murray Bridge Preview For Wednesday

Racing in South Australia on Wednesday is at Murray Bridge. We have assessed the meeting in full and below is our advised bet analysis for each race. Overall it is not a "classic betting meeting" but some good value does exists and there is a couple of high confidence bets early on the card. The 2nd half of the card offers plenty of value but not high confidence.

1.23pm
Murray Bridge R2 No10 Quick Single - failed on debut at Morphettville vs stronger, trial form prior suggests is up to this level winning a trial by 3.8l at Morphettville on slow going, bred for speed by Not A Single Doubt out of a Bluebird mare, blinkers go on 1st time, need 5.00+ for value.

1.59pm
Murray Bridge R3 No8 Don's In Charge - better than 1st up effort last start suggests btn 1.4l into 6th, went too hard that day and battled on well considering, fitter now and further improvement expected 2nd up, 1st up last prep btn 2.3l 2nd by the smart type Amy's Glen who has since franked the form, repeat of that effort and it should prove hard to beat here, need 3.20+ for value.

2.41pm
Murray Bridge R4 No6 Junood - forget last start failure, winkers go on 1st time, expected to improve on peak rating hit 2 starts ago when 3rd to Dubai Me Diamonds at Strathalbyn, suited by the longer trip here and beat race winners that day, more than can be said for any of the other engaged runners here, well bred by More Than Ready out of a Rainbow Quest / Sadler's Wells dam line to suggest this trip is also more suitable than the 1200m races it peak ratings have so far come in 2 and 3 starts ago, need 2.80+ for value.

3.23pm
Murray Bridge R5 No7 Nosealot - lightly raced General Nediym 3yo who has shown on numerous occassions during short career it is up to and above winning at this level, 1st up effort 3rd to Shot Of Laughter suggests is in the required form, forget 2nd up run, tried over too far (1300m) and knocked up, won 1st and 2nd up last prep both times at Geelong once making all and once stalking, adaptable racing profile which is a bonus considering the wide gate, more likely to stalk here, enough positives to warrant specking at 5.00+.

4.43pm
Murray Bridge R7 No3 Irish Rhapsody & No3 Astronomo - not a lot of confidence here but both of these are worth specking if realistic good value prices are bet, minor leaning is towards Irish Rhapsody, 2nd up last prep won at Mornington over 1520m then franked that form level next 2 starts 2nd to Don Columbo and 2nd to You'rejokingme, prepared to overlook 1st up effort, not suited, Astronomo has been below par all 4 runs this prep but his 2 wins on end last prep at Ballarat and Cranbourne over this same 1400m trip put him right in this if he can find that level again. Need 6.00+ about Irish Rhapsody, Need 9.00+ about Astronomo, only specking.

5.21pm
Murray Bridge R8 No7 I'lltestya, No12 Golden Schnaps & No18 Coco Bel - very wide open betting affair, 20 engaged, max 16 runners, enough depth in prices here to back 3 at odds for a result across the race, confidence is decent, Illtesya got back to some sort of form last start winning at Clare over 1700m, 1st up win this prep over 1200m at Murray Bridge looks the strongest current prep form ref on any of these, drawn OK, should get a suitable trip, Golden Schnaps is drawn the 1 alley and likely will get the run of the race, good 2nd to Jeunealistic reads well from 2 starts ago, every chance it will hit that level or higher here which will see it right in the mix which makes the 25/1 prepost seem luxury odds. Also minor specking warranted on Coco Bel which is being bet at 50/1 prepost, Vic form from 14 months ago strong enough to win this and held about that level last prep winning a fairly strong race for the class at the Sapphire Coast. Back all 3 at the good odds for a result across the race.

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