LINGFIELD 2.10 - PERFECT TRIBUTE SET FOR NEW CAREER PEAK UP TO 7F
Very good value exists in the G3 fillies race at Lingfield on Saturday in the form of the Dubawi 3yo Perfect Tribute, last start she hit a new career peak 2nd up winning at Ascot over 6f at Listed level, she is bred for this slightly longer trip being out of an Invincible Spirit mare who was unraced but her dam is non other than the high class Ballet Society (Sadler's Wells) who has produced all her best progeny at 10f+. Perfect Tribute was doing her best work on the line in her last start win also suggesting scope for more up to 7f, the overall depth of that Listed win is also above par knocking off Margot Did and Libranno back in 3rd and 4th.
Hard to deny at the very good odds of 13.00 being bet on Betfair early, an each way betting proposition that we feel will firm closer to post time.
So the bet is......
Lingfield 2.10 No8 Perfect Tribute - 2 units win and 2 units place
Plenty of value to be had on the good card put together for the Goodwood Handicap meeting at Morphettville on Sunday. The first 4 races in particyular offer up plenty of strong betting races with double figured odds horses chance in most races.
Here is what our analysts have to say about the first 4 races on the card.
Morphettville R1 - Very tricky race to be confident about, the 2 that make the most appeal are Light Touch & Sport Chic, Light touch was 2nd to Manhattan Maid last start but its trial win prior suggests it is better than that 1st up effort, natural scope for more, capable of turning the tables. Sport Chic is a very well bred 1st starter by Redoute's Choice out of the stakes winning Red Ransom mare Cinque with D Oliver up for this debut run in Listed company. Light Touch is 7.50 & Sport Chic is 15.00 in early fixed odds markets on Saturday.
Morphettville R2 No2 Fashion & No8 Dubai Me Diamonds - decent confidence betting race for us, especially considering the value on offer about these top 2 choices, Heath Conners seems to have found the secret to FASHION now, the very well bred Encosta De Lago 3yo filly broke her maiden by a big margin at Ballarat 2 back then franked that win winning in Open 3yof company at Flemington over 1400m, showed big promise as a 2yo with close 2nd to Skilled before that horse won the Champagne and ran 2nd to Yosei in the Sires Produce, definitely up to winning this on those form refs, DUBAI ME DIAMONDS looked very smart last prep when knocking off Always Discreet by 3l with a further 8l to 3rd, she is 2 from 2 this prep and capable of hitting a new peak here, if so it shakes this at double figure odds. Fashion can be backed at 6.00 in early fixed odds markets and Dubai Me Diamonds can be backed at 12.00, back both to win for a result across the race.
Morphettville R3 No5 Conduction & No13 Protector - very big confidence betting race that offers up great value, CONDUCTION is the clear cut top elect on the back of its high merit 2nd to Simply Boogie last start over this track and distance, they streeted their foes that day and not all of the beaten brigade could be that far below their true form, the top 2 simply hit new peaks and Conduction should hold that level here, if it does it wins, the major seen danger is the Stratum gelding drawn down on the rail to secure a good trip in the form of Protector, its win at Balaklava 2 back suggests it has considerable scope for more and last start it was well below par at Oakbank, looked as though it didnt handle the track that day and performance too far below par to be true, on debut finished 3rd to Toorak Toff and Lone Rock, that effort also hinted at above average ability, Conduction is 5.00 in early fixed odds markets, the major bet, Protector is 13.00 in early fixed odds markets, back in support of top elect.
Morphettville R4 No14 Paris Memory & No16 Maraaseem - potentially a massive value betting race and level of confidence vs value is good, the 3 major chances in our assessment are all progeny of the leading sire in the country Redoute's Choice, one of them is the favorite Platinum Passion but the value is with the other two that leading sire has engaged here being Paris Memory and Maraaseem, Paris Memory is out of the Bluebird mare Forget Paris and she is a half sister to 2 stakes winners one of them being Twiglet who herself has produced 3 stakes winners including the high class Easy rocking & Fairy King Prawn, Corey Brown is booked and from the 1 alley she is assured a good ground saving trip, she has always hinted at above average ability including early on when splitting 2 high class fillies in a trial at Cranbourne between Rostova and Absolute Faith, she then won 1st up that prep knocking off Livia with Zantelagh btn 5l+ further back, she won 1st up this prep hinting at a good staying preperation and then franked that winning 3rd up knocking off the potentially smart Sheahan with a big margin back to 3rd which was Street Belle, a form line can be taken through that horse directly back to Platinum Passion giving Paris Memory a 3.5kg pull at the weights over Platinum Passion, plenty to like, priced up in early fixed odds markets at 31.00, big overs, the other one by Redoute's Choice worth backing is the David Hayes trained 3yo filly Maraaseem, her 3rd up win 2 starts ago suggested she is getting back to the form she hinted at last preperation when she chased home Brazilian Pulse to finish 2l 6th in the Wakeful Stakes at G2 level, a repeat of that form puts it in this up to its ears, currently on offer at 34.00 in early fixed odds markets. So back both No14 Paris Memory at 31.00 for the win & No16 Maraaseem at 34.00 for the win, both can also be backed for the place on offer at 8.50 & 9.50 respectively in early fixed odds markets at www.tabonline.com.au
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05/06/2011
Lingfield 1.35 No1 Arabian Star - very hard to go past the chances of Arabian Star if it can reproduce its 2yo form from last season, 1st up was flat behind Ivan Vasilevich when 5th btn 3.2l, must forgive that run as prior form is well above the level required to win here inc 2 back when nosed out by Buthelezi over 8f at Doncaster, snatched up 1f out when making headway and had to be switched hitting the line hard the final 100y once momentum kicked back in. Form refs out of that race super strong for this. Get in very well weighted under the set weights format of the race. Trades at 4.70 on Betfair in early markets. We have it rated a 2.60 chance. Good overs, bet with decent confidence.
For more high quality bets on a daily basis go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au covering AUS, UK & USA horse racing.
A good lead can be taken with the series of 5 trainer interviews put together by by the guys at www.sportingbet.com.au for the upcoming feature Australian Group races on the weekend covering the Gold Coast on Saturday (Hollindale Cup meeting) & Morphettville on Sunday (Goodwood Handicap meeting).
We will be providing detailed betting advice for both of these meetings. Gold Coast preview live on Friday evening and Morphettville preview live on Saturday evening at www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au
Horse Racing - Hollindale Stakes Preview - Wayne Hawkes
Horse Racing - GOODWOOD HCP Day Preview - Mark Kavanagh
Horse Racing - GOODWOOD HCP Day Preview - Simon Zahra
Horse Racing - GOODWOOD HCP Day Preview - David Hayes
Horse Racing - GOODWOOD HCP Day Preview - Nigel Blackiston
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The main South Australian meeting for the weekend is on Sunday at Morphettville including the running of the South Australian Derby and the Goodwood Handicap. We will be covering that meeting in full on www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au. We are still playing in South Australia at Gawler on Saturday though on what is shaping up as a good value betting card and one that can be specked at big odds in Race 2 on the Gawler betting card is Aroc.
Here is our analysts assessment of its form and chance in the race.
Gawler R2 No3 Aroc - no major confidence here but this one warrants specking at a likely big price, well beaten both official race starts but trial form prior winning 3 trials on end and then trial 2nd since those 2 race failures all reads relatively strong for this race, big bonus drawn the inside gate, if it can hit that trial level form it can shake this at a likely big double figure price, well bred for speed by Stratum out of a Dehere mare who in turn is out of a Rory's Jester mare who has produced a stakes winning sprinter, purely each way specking material.
So the bet is......
Gawler R2 No3 Aroc - 1 unit win and 2 units place, is being offered at 15/1 in prepost markets but we feel it will be bet closer to the 20/1 mark, minimum price required is 12/1.
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The 2011 Kentucky Derby shapes as a very good value betting affair with a wide open market suggesting plenty of chances. We have handicapped the race top to bottom and have identified 7 horses that are capable of figuring in the exotics and have identified 2 that can be backed with decent confidence in the win betting market for a result across the race.
Our predicted order of finishing is as follows....
1st #18 Uncle Mo
2nd #11 Master Of Hounds
3rd #8 Dialed In
4th #17 Soldat
5th #4 Stay Thirsty
6th #14 Shackleford
7th #15 Midnight Interlude
Our assessment of each horse from a handicapping perspective along with key race videos for the 2 win betting chances Uncle Mo and Master Of Hounds is as follows.
No18 Uncle Mo - the biggest query for Uncle Mo is the shocking alley it has drawn out near the carpark, his Breeders Cup Juvenile win was high class and still to this day the strongest form reference in this race by far, the way he repelled Boys At Tosconova and went away from the rest of the field in the stretch was the sign of a top class horse of the highest order, won a strong renewal of the Timely Writer (mild hand ride in stretch, plenty of improvement on that run) 1st up for 3yo season back on March 12 and form refs out of that race back through the likes of recent G2 winner Adios Charlie suggest it retains all of its 2yo ability and dominance, forget the Wood Memorial run last start, it was simply too bad to believe, if he can negate the wide gate and get a softish on pace trip he wins. Need 4.00+ for value.
Uncle Mo - Key Run - Breeders Cup Juvenile 2010
No11 Master Of Hounds - the simple fact that an Aidan O'Brien trained runner shows up for the Kentucky Derby has to be respected, sure to have come on significantly since finishing 2nd in the UAE Derby, good effort with margin to 3rd, finished 3rd in a good renewal of the Racing Post Trophy G1 as a 2yo at Doncaster and that was on the back of running 2nd to subsequent G1 winner Roderic o'Connor 2 starts earlier who is one of the few horses to get within 2 lengths of the mighty Frankel, drawn Ok in the 11 alley to secure one of the runs of the race, superbly bred by Kingmambo out of the very well related Sadler's Wells mare Silk And Scarlet, the big surprise horse, priced up at 31.00 in prepost markets, massive overs, warrants specking in support of top elect Uncle Mo
Master Of Hounds - Key Run - UAE Derby 2011
No8 Dialed In - prepost favorite on the back of winning the Florida Derby last start by a head over Shackleford, looks the strongest current form ref and likely for a good trip from the 8 alley but does look 1 level below the form of Uncle Mo if the real Uncle Mo shows up.
No17 Soldat - forget last start failure behind Dialed In in the Florida Derby, win the start prior by 2l in the G2 Fountain Of Youth reads completely different and on a par with Dialed In, wide gate the big query as it is at its best when making all, must be included in exotics.
No4 Stay Thirsty - has failed 2 of last 3 starts behind both Uncle Mo in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and then last start behind Dialed In, in between won the G3 Gotham suggesting is clearly better than those 2 failures suggest and also was a strong 2nd to Boys At Toscanova in the G1 Hopeful which once again contradicts the btn margin behind Uncle Mo in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, likely perfect trip from the 4 alley, has to be respected, one of the horses capable of springing a big odds upset, same owners as Uncle Mo.
No14 Shackleford - winner 3 of 5 in short career, forget failure 2 back btn 23l by Soldat, clearly better than that run suggests, got blowsed by Dialed In in the Florida Derby last start, gate creates a big query due to being at best trying to make all.
No15 Midnight Interlude - came of age last start winning the Santa Anita Derby after a facile wide margin maiden win, bred to stay the trip by War Chant out of a New Zealand bred Groom Dancer mare, stamina strong on bottom half of pedigree, astute yard who have won this race 3 times, must be respected.
Betting Advice
Win Betting
Churchill Downs R11 No18 Uncle Mo - 3 unit win bet @ 6.60+ on Betfair (may hit 7.00)
Churchill Downs R11 No11 Master Of Hounds - 1 unit win bet @ 24.00+ on Betfair (likely to drift further closer to post, European money will keep it under until then)
Exotic Betting
Bet with decent confidenceo f nailing the exotics playing with the numbers of the top 7 chances listed above.
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The G1 Kentucky Oaks is the major drawcard on Friday at Churchill Downs but a fantastic undercard of betting is the major attraction for us with the Kentucky Oaks a hard race to handicap. 5 live chances there but 3 of the other stakes races on the day offer up good confidence betting opportunities.
We will also be providing a detailed coverage of the Kentucky Derby card in an upcoming post.
We start off with Unrivaled Belle is the G2 La Troienne
Churchill Downs R6 No8 Unrivaled Belle - won the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic end of last season holding sway over a hard closing Blind Luck, confident that wont be reversed here with Blind Luck flattening her ratings level next 3 starts whilst this one is capable of hitting that peak again, a bit of speed drawn inside it but likely to stalk the leaders waiting, if it gets cover it will prove hard to hold out in deep stretch with an obvious seen class edge over most of these. Need 3.20+ for value.
Unrivalled Belle - Key Run - Breeders Cup Ladies Classic 2010
The next high quality bet on the card comes along in the G3 Eight Belles Stakes
Churchill Downs R8 No1 Arienza - very well bred type by Giant's Causeway out of the former top class race mare Azeri, $800K yearling purchase at Keeneland Sept 09, tried over too far last start when a wilting 2nd to Joyful Victory (G2 Fantasy) who looks one of the major hopes in the Oaks later on this same card, won first 2 career starts and really liked the way it turned away Hidasta and Explosive Disco when trying a mile for the first time in 2nd career win Optional Claimer $60K company, 6 of the 7 horses it beat that day had finished 1st or 2nd at their previous start, the form ref through Explosive disco 3rd btn 7l reads very strong, start prior it finished 2nd to a picket fence winner All About Town and 2 back broke its maiden by 9l with 2nd home in that race winning next start, Arienza likely to get the run of the race drawn the inside gate and can either lead or take sit stalking on leaders heels, either way will be afforded a near perfect trip, sharp turn of foot should see it hold sway at the business end. Need 3.70+ for value.
Arienza - Key Run - Oaklawn Park Optional Claimer $60K
The 3rd good bet on the card comes up in the G2 American Turf Stakes
Churchill Downs R10 No3 Banned - 2nd up from a spell on the back of being btn 0.3l 3rd in Allowance company at Keeneland over a mile, got caught 3 deep no cover and had the toughest trip of all that day, fitness gave way, 2nd up fitter now, visually very impressive winning 2 on end on turf as a 2yo last season by 3l and 5l, both times showed a sharp turn of foot and widened the margin to the line, its 2nd win over Lil Bit O'Fun has seen the form since franked with that horse a 1l 4th to Air Support in the G3 Transylvanian at its latest start, 5th and 7th home that day also won next start and 8 of the 10 horses he beat that day were last start winners, likely for a perfect stalking trip on the leaders back with one of the runs of the race from the 3 alley, bred to handle turf by Kitten's Joy out of a Capote mare and has already shown a liking to rain effected ground when breaking its maiden on yielding ground in impressive fashion. Need 3.50+ for value.
Banned - Key Run - Keeneland Allowance $49K
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Racing in South Australia on Wednesday is at Murray Bridge. We have assessed the meeting in full and below is our advised bet analysis for each race. Overall it is not a "classic betting meeting" but some good value does exists and there is a couple of high confidence bets early on the card. The 2nd half of the card offers plenty of value but not high confidence.
1.23pm Murray Bridge R2 No10 Quick Single - failed on debut at Morphettville vs stronger, trial form prior suggests is up to this level winning a trial by 3.8l at Morphettville on slow going, bred for speed by Not A Single Doubt out of a Bluebird mare, blinkers go on 1st time, need 5.00+ for value.
1.59pm Murray Bridge R3 No8 Don's In Charge - better than 1st up effort last start suggests btn 1.4l into 6th, went too hard that day and battled on well considering, fitter now and further improvement expected 2nd up, 1st up last prep btn 2.3l 2nd by the smart type Amy's Glen who has since franked the form, repeat of that effort and it should prove hard to beat here, need 3.20+ for value.
2.41pm Murray Bridge R4 No6 Junood - forget last start failure, winkers go on 1st time, expected to improve on peak rating hit 2 starts ago when 3rd to Dubai Me Diamonds at Strathalbyn, suited by the longer trip here and beat race winners that day, more than can be said for any of the other engaged runners here, well bred by More Than Ready out of a Rainbow Quest / Sadler's Wells dam line to suggest this trip is also more suitable than the 1200m races it peak ratings have so far come in 2 and 3 starts ago, need 2.80+ for value.
3.23pm Murray Bridge R5 No7 Nosealot - lightly raced General Nediym 3yo who has shown on numerous occassions during short career it is up to and above winning at this level, 1st up effort 3rd to Shot Of Laughter suggests is in the required form, forget 2nd up run, tried over too far (1300m) and knocked up, won 1st and 2nd up last prep both times at Geelong once making all and once stalking, adaptable racing profile which is a bonus considering the wide gate, more likely to stalk here, enough positives to warrant specking at 5.00+.
4.43pm Murray Bridge R7 No3 Irish Rhapsody & No3 Astronomo - not a lot of confidence here but both of these are worth specking if realistic good value prices are bet, minor leaning is towards Irish Rhapsody, 2nd up last prep won at Mornington over 1520m then franked that form level next 2 starts 2nd to Don Columbo and 2nd to You'rejokingme, prepared to overlook 1st up effort, not suited, Astronomo has been below par all 4 runs this prep but his 2 wins on end last prep at Ballarat and Cranbourne over this same 1400m trip put him right in this if he can find that level again. Need 6.00+ about Irish Rhapsody, Need 9.00+ about Astronomo, only specking.
5.21pm Murray Bridge R8 No7 I'lltestya, No12 Golden Schnaps & No18 Coco Bel - very wide open betting affair, 20 engaged, max 16 runners, enough depth in prices here to back 3 at odds for a result across the race, confidence is decent, Illtesya got back to some sort of form last start winning at Clare over 1700m, 1st up win this prep over 1200m at Murray Bridge looks the strongest current prep form ref on any of these, drawn OK, should get a suitable trip, Golden Schnaps is drawn the 1 alley and likely will get the run of the race, good 2nd to Jeunealistic reads well from 2 starts ago, every chance it will hit that level or higher here which will see it right in the mix which makes the 25/1 prepost seem luxury odds. Also minor specking warranted on Coco Bel which is being bet at 50/1 prepost, Vic form from 14 months ago strong enough to win this and held about that level last prep winning a fairly strong race for the class at the Sapphire Coast. Back all 3 at the good odds for a result across the race.
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The G3 Starspangledbanner Athasi Stakes (3.20 from Curragh) on monday offers up very good value about the maiden performed Claiomh Solais who carries the super hot Galileo / Danehill nick, the same nick as Frankel, Roderic O'Connor and Teofilo. This one can be backed at good double figure odds each way with OK confidence of a profitable return across both markets.
Here is what our analysts have to say about her chances.
Curragh 3.20 No6 Claiomh Solais - very well bred type by Galileo out of the Danehill mare Scribonia who is a half sister to 4 stakes performers who were all at their best over 6f to 8f, she herself has produced 2 high class stakes horses already both by Galileo including dual G1 placed Gile Na Greine G3 winners / G1 placed Cuis Ghaire, this nick is also the nick that has produced Teofilo, Frankel & roderic O'Connor, the hottest nick in world wide racing at present. Comes into this having its 3rd career start back to a more suitable 7f after being one paced when 3rd over 10f last start, debut effort 3l 2nd to Sappire over 8f at the Curragh on soft ground reads very strong, this nick seems to appreciate and revel over a hard sharp 7f so dont be surprised to see this one improve leaps and bounds here having its 3rd career start and that 1st career start 2nd in a maiden suggests it has Group horse in the making written on its barn door. Warrants backing each way at the big price of 17.00 being bet on Betfair currently.
So the bet is.......
Curragh 3.20 No6 Claiomh Solais - 1 unit win, 2 units place
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The 2.50 at Beverley continues the early theme of the day being "serious chances at double figure odds". The Acclamation 3yo filly Sea Flower looks perfectly placed to find the front early and prove hard to run down.
Here is what our analysts have to say about her chances.
Beverley 2.50 No8 Sea Flower - overly well placed here going on Juvenile form from last season, finished 2nd on 3 of last 5 starts and form refs out of those races suggest clearly above the level required to win here and has obvious scope for more, has good early speed and should take up an on pace position without working too hard early drawn in the 4 alley, good speed pedigree by Acclamation out of a Tagula mare, being bet at 13.50 in early markets on Betfair, excellent each way value.
So the bet is.......
Beverley 2.50 No8 Sea Flower - 2 units win, 4 units place
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