Rohlindi To Keep Family Speed Tradition Alive At Bath In The 4.10

The 4.10 at Bath on Thursday does shape as a fairly weak maiden fillies Class 4 race with only 4 horses set to face the judge, one that does look well above the required level to win is the Red Ransom filly Rohlindi.

Here is what our analysts have to say about its chances.

Bath 4.10 No4 Rohlindi - playing this race from a value perspective, 2 major seen chances here in the form of Rohlindi and Vicona, leaning is towards Rohlindi who is by Red Ransom of the Waajib mare Rohita who has produced many decent sprinters in her time at stud including 2 stakes performed sprinters, looking at the past sires Rohita it becomes clearly evident Rohlindi is the best credentialled she has produced in terms of breeding being by Red Ransom, clearly a superior sire who has become a noted speed influence in the Southern Hemisphere, Rohlindi comes out of the inform Clive Cox yard and if she is anywhere near as good as some of her half relations she will win this weak maiden by a margin, the race favorite and 2nd pick Vicona has a good speed pedigree too but her debut ewffort is questionable despite dropping back here in trip to a more suitable distance (coleader 1.5f out on debut over 7f), they have it between them and Rohlindi clearly better value at 6.00 on Betfair early in the win market.

So the bet is.....

Bath 4.10 No4 Rohlindi - 2 unit win bet, 2 unit place bet (only 2 place dividends)

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Godolphin Can Get Off The Mark In The 2.40

The Godolphin is yet to have a flat winner for the start of the 2011 UK flat turf season and all that looks set to change in the 2.40 at Bath on Thursday. They have engaged the Rock Hard Ten filly Sahafh and she does look very well placed to break maiden status over the 8f trip.

Here is what our analysts have to say about her chances.

Bath 2.40 No6 Sahafh - some good depth in the form of this race with a lot of these long term looking capable of winning above the advertised class here, the one that makes most appeal is the Rock Hard Ten 3yo filly from the Godolphin camp Sahafh, her first 2 career starts were both full of merit before she lost her way in the 2nd half of last season, on debut she was strong to the line when 3rd at Newbury over 7f btn 4.5l behind 2 very smart types in Cape Dollar and Zanazzi, those she beat further back also add big depth to the form out of the race, at her 2nd career start she hit the front in deep stretch before being run down by Musharakaat who was strong behind White Moonstone and Masaya at its next few starts, she is drawn well down in the 3 alley and Dettori is booked, the yard has only sent 3 runners to the track this flat season in the UK so far but the query is if they have started this season slow, if Sahafh is ready for this 1st up assignment she will prove hard to hold out. Currently she is 6.00 in the win market and 2.90 in the place market on Betfair (only 2 dividends place market), we have it rated on the 4.40 line as top elect so good value exists.

So the bet is

Bath 2.40 No6 Sahafh - 2 unit win bet, 2 unit place bet

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Gee Major Well Placed At Bath In The 2.10

Thursday UK racing sees us cover meetings from Bath, Brighton, Southwell and Tipperary on what looks a strong day of betting action with plenty of winners to be had.

We start off early in the 2.10 at Bath and are rather keen on the chances of the Nicky Vaughan trained Gee Major who has an affinity for this track, distance and conditions.

This is what our analysts have to say about its chances.

Bath 2.10 No1 Gee Major - lightly raced Reset 4yo gelding out of the Weldnaas mare Polly Golightly, comes into this having first start for the new season and does look well placed in a very weak race, penny finally dropped mid season last year when striking blow to win at 33/1 over this track and distance defeating Lady Of Garmoran, showed further improvement next start making it a 2 times when drawing away with Belle Park holding sway over that rival also over this track and distance, put big margins back through the field that day and despite being a loqw quality affair the depth out of that race is better than any of the others engaged here, only lightly raced, has good scope for more, the Reset breed tend to improve from 3 to 4 years of age, both wins came on firm tracks last season and gets that again here, deserved top weight but still well weighted considering the scope for further improvement it holds, drawn a decent gate to secure a good trip, ticks plenty of the right boxes and a very good price on Betfair being offered up at odds of 6.40, also great place betting value likely to bet around 2.20 to 2.40.

So the bet is....

Bath 2.10 No1 Gee Major - 2 units win, 4 units place

With Gee Major being priced up as a 2.20 to 2.40 chance in the PLACE BETTING market early on Betfair we are rather keen to make this a Fifty50share PLACE BET with good confidence.

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Condahussler Tries 2000m At Geelong On Friday

The 7th race on the card from Geelong on friday is a tricky little betting race with decent depth in the form. The wide gate and ability to see out a strong 2000m are the major factors against Condahussler but it does look best suited on exposed form and has scope for more.

This is what our analysts have to say about its chances.

Geelong R7 No7 Condahussler - tricky kind of affair but enough merit associated to Condahussler to make it a worthwhile betting commodity, query getting out ot this 2000m trip being by Hussonet out of a Canny Lad mare, further query is the wide gate but with no other seen leaders engaged it should be able to cross lead and dictate wirthout having to do too much work early, if so it is every chance of seeing out the 2000m trip, looked very good breaking its maiden 3 back at Werribee over 1415m and was still strong on the line holding sway over the potentially above average Fastnet Rock 3yo The Blues, put a big 5l margin back to 3rd that day as those 2 drew away from the 200m mark, good merit, next start was not disgraced when 2nd to the very smart High Chapparal 3yo Excluded who was making it 3 wins on end, although btn 4.5l held sway over some other decent types sfor 2nd suggesting it is an above average form ref, last start 2nd to Torrefy also had its positives, definite bonus having D Gauci booked who has ridden it all 4 starts this prep and is a great rider dictating from the front, he will give it every chance to see out the trip, next best in order are No5 Cartago, No9 Mauritius, No2 Gaudalcanal and No1 Whitebait, need 5.00+ for value about Condahussler in what looks an open kind of race and prepost is priced up as a 7.50 chance.

So the bet is....

Geelong R7 No7 Condahussler - 1 unit win, minimum price required 5.00

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Another Lloyd Williams Blueblood Looks To Break Maiden Status At Geelong

The production line of the Lloyd Williams / Robert Hickmott staying brigade keeps on at full steam at Geelong on Friday with the engagement of the Galileo 3yo Cottonwood in Race 3. In what looks a fairly average race for the class with little scope associated to the other runners engaged Cottonwood does look well placed.

Here is what our analysts have to say about its chances.

Geelong R3 No4 Cottonwood - in a race of limited seen chances for the class and conditions it is hard to go past the chances of Cottonwood who is 2nd up here for the Hickmott yard on the back of flashing big closing pars behind Grenada Road when 4l 4th, the 3yo Galileo gelding offers big scope for improvement off that run stepping to 2000m and on that basis looks to have every chance here, the high opinion is formed around its scope so we still need to be a bit wary of what price we take here, under the pace scenario it is likely to get back in a slowly run race which is not ideal but it does look to have the upside to overcome that factor against a field that lacks a lot of depth, next best are No3 The Zero and No9 Deity Dane. Need 2.50+ about Cottonwood.

So the bet is....

Geelong R3 No4 Cottonwood - 3 unit win bet, minimum odds 2.50.

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Potential Double Figure Odds About Vila At Geelong On Friday

Race 5 from Geelong on Friday shapes as a fairly weak MR58 race for fillies and mares and the astute Brideoake yard saddles up the maiden Canny Lad filly Vila who looks well placed at double figure odds prepost.

Here is what our analysts have to say about her chances.

Geelong R5 No8 Vila - decided to lean towards the unexposed Canny Lad 3yo filly Vila here, interesting that the astute Brideoake yard chooses a MR58 race to appear in 1st up here as it is still a maiden, we take this as a good lead into stable confidence that the horse has a level of ability which it hinted at winning a trial at Werribee over 800m prior to its debut preperation, both 2nd and 3rd home in that trial Rossan and Circle The Globe add enough depth to the form to suggest Vila is up to winning a race of this nature, decent speed in the race is likely to see it settle midfield with cover from the 9 alley and get every chance to close off over the top of them. Shapes as very good value prepost being offered up at 12.00, we have it rated a lot shorter than that on the 4.20 line of betting so it is likely this will develop into a good value betting commodity, the clear 2nd elect and major danger is No5 Glenariff.

So the bet is.....

Geelong R5 No8 Vila - 2 units win, min price of 4.20, if better than 2.10 in the place market then shapes as a potential Fifty50Share bet.

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Mop Can Overcome A Wide Gate At Ballarat

An above par field lines up for Race 7 at Ballarat on Thursday as part of our Australian horse racing coverage for the day. In a race where there is 5 seen chances we have a leaning towards the badly drawn Mop over the others.

We were on Mop when it won 1st up from a spell last start on slow going at Cranbourne breaking its maiden status, it only won by tight margins that day but it did all of the work on the front end whilst 2nd 3rd and 4th came from further back off a fast pace, the merit of the win defies the tight margins. Prior to that she finished 0.2l 2nd to Enzed Girl in a hot trial at Cranbourne over 800m, the depth of that trial also suggests it has bigger fish to fry down the track.

She is by Choisir out of the handy 5 time sprint winning mare Miss Macleay (Mister C), this is only her 3rd named foal and clearly the by the best credentialled sire she has been to.

The outside alley is a big query with so much speed drawn under her but she does possess very sharp gate speed which may see her able to cross them without doing too much early, winkers go on for the 1st time and they will have a better effect in hopefully making her settle and if so she may prove very hard to run down in deep stretch.

She is bound to look the winner at some stage in the stretch and at odds of 8.50 prepost she is attractively priced as a win betting proposition, remembering there is a lot of depth in this field and she has an awkward gate we really need 5/1 or 6.00+ for value.

So the bet is

Ballarat R7 No4 Mop - 1 unit win

The other seen chances in order are

No8 Walkaway, No3 Our Testament, No9 Reallen, No6 Pounce Ontha Couch.

We have left the prepost favorite Talcum out of our top 5 seen chances which means those top 5 mentioned above may reresent very good value boxed in the Trifecta.

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Margiela Drawn For Gun Trip At Ballarat

The 8th race at Ballarat on Thursday looks a golden opportunity for the David Hayes trained Margiela to break back into the winners circle. The Redoute's Choice filly is 3rd up from a spell now looking for this 1400m trip on the back of a below par effort last start when 6th to God Help Her at Sandown.

She showed 2 starts ago when 1st up that she had come back in good order, she died on her run in deep stretch that day but still battled on to only be beaten 2.7l by Bellantina who had won 2 of her past 3 by very big margins, 2nd home was Queen Delight who had won her previous 2 on end, one of them by 6l, God Help Her was back in 3rd beating Margiela only 2.3l and then God Help Her beat Margiela 3.8l when Margiela was 2nd up confirming our thought she regressed 2nd up and did not improve. With the natural scope for improvement we expect to see here 3rd up she comes right into calculations as a very well weighted highly rated runner despite being a 3yo filly vs older males.

The field she beat 1st up last preperation over 1300m on the Synthetic al Geelong adds further big depth to her profile with 6 of the next 7 home behind her winning quickly after. Some of the horses she defeated that day were White Universe, Shadowofexcellence, Golden Tabby, Absolute King, Crawfish and Prinsen.

The pace scenario suits her perfectly drawn down on the rail to secure the run of the race tracking the leaders. She will get 1st run on them in the stretch and prove hard to run down after the soft trip.

Prepost markets have her priced up at 8.50 which is a very attractive price.

We read the market as follows across the top 4 rated chances

No9 Margiela 3.50, No5 Jake Boy 4.50, No6 Sons Of God 8.00, No4 Bussan Boy 8.50

So having Margiela rated as a 3.50 chance it is likely good value will exist in the win market and if the price holds up anywhere near the prepost price of 8.50 we may be looking at 2.00+ for the place....and we know what that means. Potential good value Fifty50Share bet.

So the bet is

Ballarat R8 No9 Margiela - win bet above 3.50, potential place bet depending upon final odds offered, need 2.00+ to qualify for Fifty50share trading.

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Arabian Star Well Placed At Yarmouth In The 3.40

The 3.40 from Yarmouth on Tuesday shapes as a good confidence betting affair for us with the engagement of the Mick Channon trained Arabian Star. In a race where we feel there is 2 major chances there is enough merit around the form of Arabian Star to have it clearly on top.

The 3yo son of Green Desert is very well bred on the dams side being out of the Galileo mare Kassiopeia who won 1 from 9 career starts and after that win raced solely in black type races though never figuring to any major extent. Most of her half relations were best over 7f to 8f and that does suggest this 10f trip for Arabian Star today suits down to the ground.

Arabian Star's racing profile as a juvenile last season had it clearly defined as one who would be best suited over these sorts of trips the way it closed hard from off the pace producing big closing pars like clockwork. Drawn the inside gate here we expect him to settle potentially closer than usual in this small field but with a lot of on pacers engaged it is assured there will be enough pressure on the front end allowing her every chance to close off over the top in the stretch.

He hit a new career peak at the end of last prep over 8f at Doncaster when nosed out by Buthelezi in C2 company which is now looking a very strong form reference for this. With natural improvement expected he definitely rates high enough here to hold sway over the major seen danger Cadore who is more one paced and best suited on breeding over 12f.

We have ARABIAN STAR assessed as a 3.20 chance and in early Betfair markets he is priced up at 4.40 and may drift slightly further, no matter which way you look at it good value exists as a win betting proposition.

Furthermore with only 6 runners engaged we feel it is strong enough a bet for the PLACE BETTING market where only 2 place dividends apply to mark it as a Fifty50Share quality place bet. We are of the belief, "whatever beats it wins". On that basis the 2.30 on offer in the place market looks great value odds.

Fifty50Share landed 6 from 7 bets successful for the PLACE on Monday and we expect to keep that winning trot going here with ARABIAN STAR.

So the bet is.......

Yarmouth 3.40 No1 Arabian Star - 2 unit win bet, 5 unit place bet

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Market Is Right But Also Wrong For The 3.00 At Lingfield

Those that are prepared to sit tight through the first hour of UK Racing on Tuesday will be kindly rewarded with a winning collect in the Lingfield 3.00 race. Our analysts have found what looks a very good betting prospect in the market leader RUDEGIRL who has been installed the 3.00 favorite on Betfair early with the only seen danger in our assessment New Latin 2nd best priced at 3.50.

We feel there is a bigger difference between their respective chances than the market allows for bewing bet so close at 3.00 and 3.50 respectively. We have identified RUDEGIRL as a 2.35 chance here and will bet with confidence accordingly.

The Trade Fair filly is 1st up from a spell for the new season now in a new stable of Conor Dore after being trained by Nigel Tinkler in its juvenile season in 2010. Its was down the track at its last start at Doncaster over 7f but that run can totally be discounted. Its prior 3 efforts including a good win over Commended at York in C3 company and its close up 4th in a big field btn 3.5l by Stand To Attention at Fairyhouse in Ireland for a $65K purse suggest it is a good few levels above what is required to win a race of this nature.

Drawn down in the 2 alley it is likely to get one of the runs of the race either leading or stalking behind the leaders. One thing for sure is it will spend no energy from the good gate getting itself into a perfect position early.

RUDEGIRL gets a 9lb weight pull over its major foe New Latin and simply has better scope.

Clearly ticking more boxes No4 RUDEGIRL is a good value betting proposition at 2.35+ in the win market, we expect it to firm from the 3.00 on offer early on Betfair so dont be the last to get on.

So the bet is....

Lingfield 3.00 No4 Rudegirl - 4 units win @ 3.00 (likely to firm, take min price of 2.35 if getting on late)

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