Newmarket 4.20 - Wootton Bassett Form Line Clearly Stands Out

FORJAAT - little bit surprised that this one is at odds of 10.00 on Betfair with 100 minutes of betting left, 4th favorite, well bred for pure speed by Iffraaj out of a Danzero mare who has produced her best prodgeny at 5f-6f, comes into this 1st up from a spell and won 1st up having 1st career start as a Juvenile last season, then franked that debut win 2nd to Wootton Bassett at 2nd career start btn only 2l, franked that big merit effort 3rd start bolting up by 5l at Nottingham, had race won a long way from home, sign of a good horse, off the boil last 2 starts when put up in class. Dettori booking adds big confidence, yard not in the worst form, hidden merit in their runners this month. Drawn well to get one of the runs of the race stalking the leaderr, ticks plenty of boxes. Sensational value in both win and place markets trading at 10.50 and 3.30.

BETTING ADVICE
Newmarket 4.20 FORJATT - 2 units win @ 10.50, 5 units place @ 3.20

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Newmarket 3.45 - Formlines Clear Cut, Good Confidence Betting Race

Enough depth in the prices to back to 2 horses here to win with good confidence.

ASTROPHYSICAL JET - warranted favorite at 4.30 on Betfair, hit new peaks end of last prep in sprinting ranks winning 2 Group 3 races on end, lightly raced, scope for more, astute yard, clear cut top elect and warrants backing at 4.20.

SOLE POWER - has the best piece of individual form defeating Starspangledbanner in the Nunthorpe last year at 100/1. Not sure it can reproduce that level but if it does it wins. Warrants minor specking at 12.00 in support of Astrophysical Jet.

BETTING ADVICE
ASTROPHYSICAL JET - 4 units @ 4.30
SOLE POWER - 1 unit @ 12.00

Goodwood 3.30 - Good Value Betting Affair

The secret here may be to lean towards the lightly raced improvers who have the potential for the most scope of their exposed form from last season.

VERY GOOD DAY looked a good type in the making last season when running 3rd to Rewilding having its 2nd career start making good ground late over 11f, broke its maiden in good style next start franking the form. Likely to have come on significantly over the winter. Well supported early on the exchanges 14.50 into 11.00, good value still exists.

MONTPARNASSE looks well placed 2nd up this season on the back of running 2nd to Montaff over 2m at Ripon in C2 company last start, natural improvement for fitness will see him improve again here, offers up good value at 6.00 in the win market.

BETTING ADVICE
VERY GOOD DAY - 2 units win @ 11.00
MONTPARNASSE - 2 units win @ 6.00

Seymour Race 1 On Saturday, Put In Take Out Scenario

Race 1 at Seymour in Victoria on Saturday (Victorian secondary meeting) shapes as what our analysts call a "put in take out race". The top elect Who's Bad looks well above average and the only seen real danger Offertory is at big enough odds to speck just incase the top elects doesnt fire, both get the best trips in the race.

Here is what our analysts have to say about their respective chances.

Seymour R1 No13 Who's Bad - ticks just about every box possible here, Freedman trained, very well bred, very well drawn under the pace scenario to secure the run of the race stalking the other seen chance Offertory who looks the potential leader to us, big effort 1st up drawing away with Fort Chauvel for a ding duel down the stretch btn 1.5l shifted about when fitness gave away final 50m, better for the run and likely to improve again, put a big 5l margin back to 3rd that day, clearly the strongest form ref in the race, we have it rated clearly on top at 2.50, back with big confidence if that price is bet.

Seymour R1 No8 Offertory - deceivingly well bred for speed by Keep The Faith out of the former stakes performed race mare Venus Was Her Name, 2 trials in prep for this nothing to write home about but trial prior to debut prep has big hidden merit associated to it, likely leader here without having to do too much work, warrants specking if the prepost price of 30/1 is anything to go buy, if something can beat Who's Bad well this may be it at big odds, specking only.

So the bets are.......

Seymour R1 No13 Who's Bad - 7 units win, No8 Offertory 1 unit win

If by chance Offertory is offered up at 4.00+ for the place it then becomes a very big value PLACE BET of mild confidence.

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Vivid Vixen Too Short, Caulfield R6, Value Elsewhere

Race 6 at Caulfield sees Vivid Vixen absolutely stifling the betting at the short odds of 2.10, we feel it is unders and worth specking others to beat it who have realistic claims at good odds.

Here is what our analysts have to say about the two seen value elects.

Caulfield R6 No10 Boom 'N' Zoom - the short priced favorite Vivid Vixen stifles the betting market here at the prohibitive quote of 2.10 in early fixed odds markets, there is value in working around it to back this one to beat it, 5l trial win at Cranbourne over 1190m prior to 1st up effort reads well suggesting it may be set for a new peak this prep, shapes that way 1st up when chasing home Flat Chat and Testa My Patience over 1600m, made up clearly the most ground and is screaming out for this trip and maybe even 2000m now, big scope for more off that run and looks well placed through those 2 horses, hinted at above average staying ability end of 2 preps ago close 3rd to Apprehend, enough depth in the form to warrants minor backing at 12.00+ in the win market.

Caulfield R6 No1 Buccellati - as stated above Vivid Vixen too short, this one is also worth specking as 2nd elect at 8.00+ in the win betting market, its UK form prior to coming to Australia puts it well up to winning a race of this nature, 2 runs so far this prep not disgraceful btn 4.6l by Launay and 4l by Testa My Patience, potential improver 3rd up, has the class, only minor specking warranted.

So the bets are.....

Caulfield R6 No10 Boom 'N' Zoom - 1 units win, No1 Buccellati - 0.5 units win.

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Barangaroo Set To Go Bang At Caulfield

Race 5 on the card at Caulfield on Saturday is as wide open as the Sydney heads from a betting / value perspective with with 7 of the 9 engaged runners being quoted on or under 10.00 in early fixed odds markets with the corporate bookmakers around the country. We really like the value being offered about Barangaroo who is quoted an 10.00 chance in those markets.

Here is what our analsysts have to say about her chances.

Caulfield R5 No2 Barangaroo - take its last start 6th out of its form and this horse would be bordering on if not favorite for this race, 1st up she chased home Miss Gai Flyer and Obsequious over 1200m at M Valley to finish 4th, that run suggested she was looking for further, 2nd up she knocked off the potentially high class La Praline with boom juvenile of last season Psychologist back in 3rd, again over 1200m, there is enough speed on the front end here to ensure she gets every chance on this suitable track to close hard from off the pace, the 9 alley is no real query and on a form line through Obsequious we feel she can handle the 59kg, current fixed odds of 10.00 seems a luxury price, back it each way with good confidence.

So the bet is....

Caulfield R5 No2 Barangaroo - 3 unit win bet at 10.00, 5 unit place bet currently at 3.15 fixed odds QTab Fixed odds place market.

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Freedman Has Stranglehold On Race 4 At Caulfield

Lee Freedman saddles up 2 runners in the 4th race at Caulfield on Saturday in the form of SPATHA and BAPTISM. Our analysts feel they have this race between them and can both be backed to win for a result across the race.

Here is what they had to say about their respective chances......

Caulfield R4 No2 Spatha - Freedman trained Lonhro colt out of the Danehill mare Swishes who is a half sister to the high class sprinter / miler La Zagaletta who won 9 stakes races, comes into this on the back of a wide margin 5.3l win at Morphettville when having its 2nd career start, widened margin to the line and still strong, ran very good time on the day and looks definite mid level stakes class on the make, likely leader here and will prove hard to run down on the back of that last start win. Backed from 4.60 into 3.40 early with the corporates. Value at that mark. Really want no shorter.

Caulfield R4 No10 Baptism - comes out of what may be a strong form race on debut when 4th btn 1.4l by Mosheen on this track over 1000m, better suited this distance, Mosheen came out and ran 2nd in the Golden Slipper next start, gate no help but very well bred and has to be specked in the win market trading at 13.00+.

So the suggested betting across the 2 runners is

Caulfield R4 No2 Spatha - 3 units win, No10 Baptism - 1 unit win

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Money For Breitling Adds To Confidence

The astute Smerdon yard looks to have picked out the perfect race for their Lonhro 3yo Breitling to resume in on Saturday in Race 3 at Caulfield. Our analysts have identified as the clear cut top pick and currently good value is on offer at the odds of 4.40 being bet by the corporates after firming from 6.00 early.

Here is what our analysts have to say about its chances.

Caulfield R3 No4 Breitling - Smerdon trained Lonhro 3yo who is 1st up from a spell here and form refs put it clearly on top at the weights, drawn to secure the run of the race stalking the leaders under a solid tempo on the rail, 2nd career start last prep reversed the ledger vs Soul scoring by 1.8l over this track and distance, form refs further back out of that race give it a big advantage at the weights here vs the likes of Curtana and others engaged here, has been the market mover since the market opened back from 6.00 early into 4.40 and still firming on Friday afternoon, anything better than 3.20 offers up good value, expected to firm further, take the odds now.

So the bet is....

Caulfield R3 No4 Breitling - 3 unit win bet at current odds of 4.40, expected to firm, rated at 3.20.

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2000 Guineas Full Of Class But Not A Great Betting Race

The Qipco 2000 Guineas is run on Saturday at Newmarket (3.10) as the 1st 3yo classic of the new season and the line up has to be considered very strong with the likes of Frankel and others making it to race day. With Frankel seen as a well above average type by our analysts we agree with the general betting public that he does deserve to go off a short priced favorite and looks the likely winner but at the ultra short odds on offer of 1.50 he really does not make a big value betting proposition. The best value in the race probably lies with Roderic O'Connor as a PLACE BETTING commodity.

Here is what our analysts have come up with as the major chances and initial betting advice.

1st Frankel - looks to short at the best offer of 1.50 as a win betting prospect but still clearly best
2nd Roderic O'Connor - probably the best betting proposition in the race in the PLACE market is 2.00+ is bet.
3rd Saamidd - suited by the pace scenario, will get last crack at a fairly solid pace, may surprise.
4th Casamento - the other Godolphin runner, Dettori up, stable mate better suited by pace scenario, hence in for 4th
5th Fury - undefeated but yet to be tried in stakes company, has to be included with scope unknown


Lay Pathfork - 2nd fav on the 6.00 line, hard to find a spot for it in the top 5, the value lay in the race.

If we can get 2.00 or better for the place about Roderic O'Connor as a place betting proposition it may be worth entertaining but really would like to see 2.30+ for this runner in the place market.

For those that are desperate to find some value in the win market (we advise against it) we would suggest backing both Roderic O'Connor at 9.00 and Saamidd at 34.00 to somehow pull off a miracle and role Frankel.

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Dubai Affair Good Value vs Confidence In The 4.40 At Bath

A small field of 6 sprinters greets the judge for the 4.40 at Bath after the 2 scratchings, the overall betting market is still pretty open with no outright pronounced favorite dominating, good value exists. We like the chances of the Dubawi 3yo filly Dubai Affair who is 1st up here for its 3yo season.

This is what our analysts have to say about her chances.

Bath 4.40 No6 Dubai Affair - hard to go past the chances of the deceivingly well bred Dubai Affair here who comes into this having its 1st start of its 3yo season, by Dubawi out of a good producing Pursuit Of Love mare who has already got Listed winner Queens Grace and 9 time sprint winner April Fool from 3 other foals to race, penny dropped 5 back when a good merit 5l 5th to Major conquest over 6f at Salisbury in 2yo C2 company, beaten home by 4 above average types and held sway over other since well performed types further back suggesting the depth of form out of that race is strong considering what Dubai Affair faces here, franked that good 5th next start when 3rd to Foghorn Leghorn, forced to do a lot of work early that day after missing the start then pushing forward to lead after 1f, only btn 1.7l, broke through at Kempton in a weak class 6 2nd last start before being put away for the winter, knows how to win how and sure to have improved over the break, if it can repeat the effort when 5th to Major Conquest then it should be winning here. Currently trades at 6.40 on Betfair and expected to tighten slightly closer to post time, we have it top pick rated as a 4.00 chance.

So the bet is.....

Bath 4.40 No6 Dubai Affair - 3 unit win bet, 5 unit place bet (currently offered at 2.00 for the place in a market paying 3 place dividends despite scratchings, very much a high quality Fifty50Share place bet)

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