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04/29/2011

2000 Guineas Full Of Class But Not A Great Betting Race

The Qipco 2000 Guineas is run on Saturday at Newmarket (3.10) as the 1st 3yo classic of the new season and the line up has to be considered very strong with the likes of Frankel and others making it to race day. With Frankel seen as a well above average type by our analysts we agree with the general betting public that he does deserve to go off a short priced favorite and looks the likely winner but at the ultra short odds on offer of 1.50 he really does not make a big value betting proposition. The best value in the race probably lies with Roderic O'Connor as a PLACE BETTING commodity.

Here is what our analysts have come up with as the major chances and initial betting advice.

1st Frankel - looks to short at the best offer of 1.50 as a win betting prospect but still clearly best
2nd Roderic O'Connor - probably the best betting proposition in the race in the PLACE market is 2.00+ is bet.
3rd Saamidd - suited by the pace scenario, will get last crack at a fairly solid pace, may surprise.
4th Casamento - the other Godolphin runner, Dettori up, stable mate better suited by pace scenario, hence in for 4th
5th Fury - undefeated but yet to be tried in stakes company, has to be included with scope unknown


Lay Pathfork - 2nd fav on the 6.00 line, hard to find a spot for it in the top 5, the value lay in the race.

If we can get 2.00 or better for the place about Roderic O'Connor as a place betting proposition it may be worth entertaining but really would like to see 2.30+ for this runner in the place market.

For those that are desperate to find some value in the win market (we advise against it) we would suggest backing both Roderic O'Connor at 9.00 and Saamidd at 34.00 to somehow pull off a miracle and role Frankel.

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