Rosehill Previews Saturday

Below are previews for 6 of the 8 races at Rosehill on Saturday including the G1 Golden Rose.

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Rosehill R4 - 1100m G3 3yo+ $125K

1st TRIM - lightly raced improver by Lonhro who ran 2nd to More Joyous 1st up last prep, dually engaged, this is the easier race to win, connections have made the right move.

2nd WINTER KING - has hit a new level this prep winning 2 on end on the back of 2 impressive trial wins, capable of another level now but has to contend with Trim.

3rd PATRONYME - impressive trial winner over Tickets in prep for return here, that was a very hot trial win with the likes of Blackball, Pinwheel, Tromso and Dorf Command further back, won 1st up last prep, every hope in an open affair.

Lay REWARD FOR EFFORT - won 1st up but that was a weak Listed event and has to cope with a hectic early speed here, has minor scope but juvenile Group 1 Blue Diamond win does not look that strong as a form ref now. Trades at 4.20 in early markets, big unders

BETTING - Trim looks exceptionally good value here early as an each way prospect at 7.50.


Rosehill R2 - 1200m C3 3yo+ $70K

1st LIGHTHORSEMAN - highly impressive trial winner by 4.8l in prep for return to racing here defeating Danleigh, hinted at being top class earlier in career, may be ready to produce it now on the track, bred to be high class.

2nd VERBALLED - very good win 2nd up last prep knocking off Sweepstaking over this track 1100m, trial winner in prep for return here, in well weighted and likely to secure a good on pace trip.

3rd KIMBERLEY KID - very good form last 3 starts winning 3 back at Randwick on heavy going then last start found 1300m too much when 0.5l 2nd to Little Surfer Girl in a strong form race, has claims.

Lay CLOTHING - has its fair share on ability but lookso very short in the early betting markets at 4.60, will have to chase down a few smart ones from off the pace who get weight off it, may want further and a faster tempo vs the top few here.

BETTING - Lighthorseman has promised so much previously and looks one of the better bets of the day going on its hot trial win, trading at 3.00 in early markets, likely to be bet around 3.50 closer to post time which is very good value.


Rosehill R1 - 1400m C3 3yo+F&M $70K

1st CLASSIC GUITAR - undefeated in 3 career starts and very well bred by Lonhro out of the smart race mare Hot Riff, last start win suggests it is a potential stakes horse on the make, if so then this is merely another stepping stone, gets weight off main seen rival We Betcha

2nd WE BETCHA - winner last 2 on end knocking off Shadow Minister and Counterpane both times over this track and distance, hard to fault form but takes on one who is better weighted with more scope in Classic Guitar.

3rd GRAGER - 3rd up here ready for a new peak, blowsed by Kerilla in a weaker race on paper at Newcastle last start but its trial win prior to 1st up effort suggests it is capable in this grade, in well weighted, may surprise at odds, 26.00 in early betting.

Lay LACADA SIREN & SNEAKY TSU - both of these are serious unders in early markets vs the top 2 above who look on paper to have this as a race in 2 between them, Lacada Siren 6.50 early and Sneaky Tsu 8.00 early.

BETTING - Classic Guitar is the deserved favorite here although we did expect the exposed form of We Betcha to make it favorite when we did our initial assessment of this race so from a value perspective Classic Guitar looks a bit short at 2.60 in early markets, need 3.20+ for value.


Rosehill R5 - 1800m Lst 3yo+ $100K

1st SHADOW MINISTER - overall this race lacks depth and the likely winner will be one with scope for further improvement who is well weighted, this one fits the bill perfectly under that scenario, at the end of last prep this 4yo Dane Shadow mare was only btn 0.8l by the improving stayer Ironstein over 2000m with a big margin to 3rd, she returned in good order last start just missing when 2nd to We Betcha over 1400m, will improve loads on that run here, likely for a new career peak which at the weights should see her hard to hold out.

2nd SCOUTING WIDE - shapes as the proven class stayer in this field but has to give weight away to the improving Shadow Minister and realistically doesnt have much more scope than it showed last prep, if Shadow Minister doesnt live up to the hype we have given it this one will be winning.

3rd THE EMBASSY - in and out type of customer who looked a well above average stakes winning stayer when winning the 2000m Randwick City Stakes at G3 level last prep by 4l but has failed to reproduce that form since, if he can get back to that level here he will give this a massive shake at a very good price, quoted at 13.00 in early markets.

Lay SNOW ALERT & MUSIC REVIEW - both of these 2 occupy the equal 2nd line of betting in early markets at 7.00 but look up against it taking on Scouting Wide, Shadow Minister, The Embassy & Sherpa Tenzig who all look better placed, Snow Alert represents the better laying value with n seen hope in our assessments but both can be layed here with decent confidence.

BETTING - We are prepared to back 2 here for a result across the race, Shadow Minister is good value at 9.00 as the top elect but also The Embassy is hard to go past at 13.00 especially if it can reproduce the form of its G3 win last prep, back both for a win with a bigger outlay obviously on the main elect Shadow Minister.


Rosehill R6 - 1400m G1 3yo $1000K

1st SASA - very well bred type who is 2nd up here after an excusable 1st up effort midfield behind Squamosa on a wet track in the Run To The Rose, looked top class breaking its maiden 2nd up last prep by 5.8l w2ith Parables 2nd adding big depth to that form now, also other big form refs out of the race further back, franked that maiden win when 0.2l 2nd to Skilled in the Champagne Stakes, scope for further improvement here, adaptable type who can lead or come from off the pace with equal effect, bonus considering the wide gate, we feel this horse is a true 1000 Guineas candidate (on offer at 20/1) and also a very good value long term Cox Plate prosect (on offer at 150/1), if our assessment is true she will shake the life out of this race at a big value quote of 25/1, backed in early markets already down from 40/1.

2nd MASQUERADER - suffered 1st career defeat last start when 2nd to Squamosa over 1300m in the Run To The Rose, closed off with big pars in deep stretch from well back, run of the race, massive scope for further improvement here, gave 5kg away to most of its rivals that day, back at set weights for this test, looks perfectly suited but may be bumping into a potential topliner in the form of Sasa so from a value perspective we put it in for 2nd here.

3rd CHANCE BYE - was a toss up between this one and Crystal Lily for 3rd but leant this way for numerous reasons, looked like it has learnt to settle better in its races now and should get the 1400m strongly and is drawn a good gate for one of the runs of the race (Crystal Lily is out near the car park), dams side of pedigree suggests it will stay and showed signs of that when doing best work on the line behind Parables 1st up in clearly a stronger race than Crystal Lily's 1st up 2nd to Panipique, 17.00 on offer compared to 4.40 for Crystal Lily makes us go Chance Bye for 3rd.

Lay TOORAK TOFF - looked good winning 1st up in Melbourne in the Vain Stakes but overall depth of that win looks questionable taking on a good G1 quality field here despite being suited by the step to 1400m, also not at best when trying this way of going 2 runs end of last prep 4th in the Sires Produce and 7th in the Champagne Stakes, has a lot against it considering the 5.00 odds in early markets, good confidence laying material.

BETTING - This shapes as a very good value betting affair as far as we are concerned, we are overly confident about the chances of Sasa winning here and the 26.00 on offer is massive overs, back it each way with big confidence, also back Chance Bye at the good odds of 17.00 on offer, there is enough depth in the betting market to also save on Masquerader. Potentially the best value betting race of the day in terms of value vs confidence.


Rosehill R7 - 1100m Lstd 3yo+F&M $100K

1st AVENUE - prepared to forgive its 1st up effort when 5th to Jeuneyman, went too fast in front and fitness gave way, very good merit considering, looked top class 2 preparations ago winning 3 on end and obviously better than efforts from last prep suggest, astute yard who ships horses with great success inter state and top hoop D Oliver booked, very well bred being a full sister to top class sprinting mare Virage De Fortune, ticks enough boxes to warrant good support at 9.00 in early markets.

2nd DE LIGHTNING RIDGE - came of age last prep winning the G2 Challenge Stakes 3rd up over a hot field for the class, highly impressive trial win by 5l in prep for return here and won by6 a widening 4l margin 1st up last prep, very good sprinting pedigree by Tale Of The Cat out of the former top class race mare Nanny Maroon, racing style suits likely to get one of the runs of the race tracking an even to solid tempo, serious claims.

3rd SISTER MADLY - a fair few came into consideration for 3rd but this one gets the nod slightly with the decisive factor being that it gets in so well weighted here with only 53.5kg, very well bred by Redoute's Choice out of Jade Tiara (dam of world champion sprinter Silent Witness)forget last prep, go on efforts 2 preps ago when 0.2l 2nd in G2 company followed by 1.2l 3rd to Rostova in G1 company, both those races slightly below par for the grade but has further scope here and weight gives it the edge over the likes of More Joyous, Dorf Command and the improving Girl Hussler.

Lay MORE JOYOUS - top class race mare but has to lump 59kg vs some very smart sprinters, also is drawn the carpark and may get caught deep or be forced to work too hard early, trial winner in prep for this but surely looking for further these days, too much against it considering the odds of 2.60 that have been offered up early, good value lay at anything less than 3.00.

BETTING - Another good confidence betting affair for us, we can back both Avenue at 9.00 and De Lightning Ridge at 5.50 for a result across the race as they look to have it between them to a major degree in terms of value vs confidence.