MOONEE VALLEY R4 - MISS GAI FLYER Set To Fly - The Peter Moody juggernaut looks set to continue in the 4th race at Moonee Valley on Saturday in the form of the lightly raced Flying Spur filly MISS GAI FLYER. She comes into this race 1st up from a spell on the back of winning 2 from 4 in her debut prep which finished with a 2nd placing in the G2 Karrakatta Plate in Western Australia. Her exposed form refs through both her wins and that 2nd in WA suggest she has a minor class edge on what she meets here. Drawn the 6 alley she is likely to get a perfect trip tracking the speed but she is rather versatile as she has won from the front and also coming from off the pace with equal effect, a major advantage here considering the amount of speed on the front end. Currently on offer at 4.80 fixed odds she represents good value here and we expect that price to firm closer to post time so get on early and secure the good price.

MOONEE VALLEY R2 - METUNG BELLE Serious Chance At Odds - The 2nd race on the card from Moonee Valley on Saturday is very much devoid of overall depth for the tag on offer and looks a good opportunity for METUNG BELLE to finally break through this preperation after finishing 2nd at each of its last 2 starts, last start it was nosed out by Tarawera over 2400m at Sandown in heavy going after hitting the front 100m from home, big gaps back to 3rd and 4th suggest it hit a new high for this prep and it gets in well weighted here on that effort, it is likely to get a good trip on pace tracking the speed from the 4 alley and will be suited by the tight turning Moonee Valley layout, the major danger come in the form of Dazzling Ruby and Miss Phromilly but METUNG BELLE looks to have their measure at the weights and on offer at 17/2 or 8.50 (better with some bookmakers) it looks a great value betting proposition.

WARWICK FARM R7 - Big Priced Winner Looms Strong - We are prepared to declare that the short priced favorite Decision Time will not win the Up And Coming Stakes at Group 3 level at Warwick Farm on Saturday, quoted between 2/1 and 5/2 in early betting he is massive unders and the best value lay on the Warwick Farm card. Because of the large market percentage he occupies 4 others can be backed here at very good prices for a result across the race.

BRIGHTEXPECTATIONS is the proven top elect here for us from an exposed form point of view. The More Than Ready colt won 2 trial impressively before failing in the San Domenico, we are prepared to forget that rin, last prep he finished 0.1l 2nd to Hinchinbrook 1st up before a wide margin win over Blackball in the G2 Pago Pago Stakes, a repeat of those runs will see him hard to beat here. At 8/1 great value is available.

SEA LORD was very impressive on debut and has massive scope for further improvement . The Street Cry colt finished 2nd to Quidnunc on a heavy track at Canterbury and his action suggested he did not handle the going, very good merit is associated to that effort and he will definitely improve here.

MUTAMAYEZ is a superbly bred Encosta De Lago colt out of the high class producer Show Dancing, he did nothing on debut last start but prior to that won a trial impressively at Randwick defeating So Detached by 5l suggesting he has a lot of natural ability. On offer at 33/1 he must be specked in a race that lacks big depth.

RENEWED VITALITY is by Redoute's Choice and prior to his 1st up 6th to Obsequious in the San Domineco stakes he he finished 2nd in a trial at Warwick Farm with 5l back to From The Vault in 3rd, that form reference gives him claims here and at 80/1 he too must be backed.

So from a betting perspective back BRIGHTEXPECTATIONS (3 units @ 8/1), SEA LORD (2 units @ 15/1), MUTAMAYEZ (1 unit @ 33/1) & RENEWED VITALITY (1 unit @ 80/1).

WARWICK FARM R6 - Big Value, Big Confidence - The feature race at Warwick Farm on Saturday, the G2 Warwick Stakes offers up great value and high confidence from a wagering perspective, there is enough depth in our major chances to back 3 horses for a result across the race here.

THESEO is the top elect for us and is likely to get a soft trip on the front end with not a lot of on pace types engaged, a proven high class G1 WFA performer who was at his best last prep twice defeating Rangirangdoo he shapes as hard to oppose here and at 8/1 in early betting offers up superb value.

DESCARADO is another of the high class gallopers produced by the very good sire High Chapparal and his recent trial win over New Day Rising suggests he is ready to produce 1st up here despite being aimed at longer races later in the Spring. Currently trading at 18/1 he also offers up great value as the 2nd elect for us.

RUN FOR NAARA is also capable of figuring here, 2nd up last prep she finished 5th btn 1.3l by Shoot Out over 1600m, that effort suggests she has claims here and the prep prior she chased home Denman 2nd btn 0.8l over 1400m in the Stan Fox stakes, that form ref also gives her claims here. At 33/1 in early betting she can also be backed to win here.

So back 3 horses for a result across the race, THESEO (3 units @ 8/1), DESCARADO (1 unit @ 18/1) & RUN FOR NAARA (1 unit @ 33/1).

WARWICK FARM R5 - Good Value Two Horse War - This shapes as a very high class renewal of the Silver Shadow Stakes with plenty of these showing form well above the advertised G2 level. Two make strong appeal with the top elect for us being SOLAR CHARGED, last start it finished 2nd to Obsequious but that day it gave significant weight away to Obsequious and today they are at level weights, Obsequious also got the softer trip of the 2 that day. they drew away from their foes in the stretch run proving clearly superior, the biggest query is the wide gate for Solar Charged but it should be able to cross without working too hard early with not a lot of early speed engaged inside it, the major danger from a value angle is the lightly raced Hussonet filly SLOW THE FLOW who produced huge closing pars last start when scoring at Randwick over 1200m, a repeat of that effort puts it in here very well weighted with serious claims. The pace scenario does look against it but if the pace is strong it is the one that will be closing hardest in deep stretch. So back both SOLAR CHARGED (major bet) and SLOW THE FLOW (minor bet) for a result across the race.

WARWICK FARM R4 - SUPERNOVA Has A Super Chance - The 4th race on the card at Warwick Farm shapes as a very open affair with plenty of seen chances and the value angle is definitely the way to be playing this race but only with limited confidence, on top we like the Tobougg 6yo SUPERNOVA who comes into this 2nd up from a spell suited by a likely solid tempo, 1st up from a spell he closed off strongly from off the pace over 1300m on an unsuitable slow track to only be beaten 4.3l for a $100k tag, 4th up last prep he showed also massive closing pars when 3rd to Brilliant Light over 1400m at Rosehill btn only 0.7l, anything like that effort here will see him shake this at a good each way price, in early markets 8/1 is being bet but you can expect to get better than 10/1 close to post time. The obvious class horses are Gergis and Hidden Wonder but the weight pull in favour of Supernova gives it the edge as the value betting proposition in the race.

WARWICK FARM R3 - RAIHANA To Make Winning Australian Debut - The very classy Elusive Quality 4yo mare RAIHANA is engaged to have its 1st Australian start here after initially doing its racing in South Africa followed by a very successful Dubai campaign back in February and March. The overall depth of this listed race is rather strong but this mare is a proven high class Group 2 performer who won 1st up in Dubai by 3.2l over 7f last prep before going on to annex the UAE 1000 Guineas and then franked that form finishing 2nd to the high class Redoute's Choice colt Musir in the UAE 2000 Guineas. Connections immediately outlined an Australian preperation for the high class mare with the long term goal being The Cox Plate. She looks to have a distinctive class edge on this field and should open her account with a win here. Currently on offer at 7/2 or better she looks good value and has to be respected as one of the better betting propositions on the Warwick Farm card.

WARWICK FARM R2 - LOST FOR WORDS To Continue Upward Spiral - This looks an overly weak race in terms of depth and the one that makes most appeal here is the Zabeel 5yo mare LOST FOR WORDS who is on an upward curve and is suited by the step to 2400m with good scope for further improvement on her exposed form refs, last start she finished a close up 2nd over 1800m behind Miss Phromily for a $70K purse and that was on the back of winning 2 on end at the provincials, she has further scope taking this next step up in the class ladder. Currently trading at better than 7/2 she offers up good value in an overly weak race for the class.

WARWICK FARM R1 - New Level Likely For NEW DAY RISING - Race 1 from Warwick Farm on Saturday shapes as a very good opportunity for punters to kick off the day on a winning note with a fair bit of good value. The one that makes the most appeal from a value perspective is the Fastnet Rock 4yo NEW DAY RISING who resumes from a spell having its 4th career start . He has been off the scene for 490 days but has trialled 3 times in prep for his return here finishing 2nd each of the last 2 and 2nd up last prep finished 0.5l 2nd in Group 2 company behind Tickets. If he is anywhere near his top which looks likely he can shake this at a good price. At 6/1 early it shapes as a good value play.

GEELONG R3 - Gear Changes Will Spark New Peak For RENUMANI - The obvious one that will make most appeal to punters in the 3rd race from Geelong is the Elvstroem 3yo Miss Elvee but the one that makes appeal to us from a value perspective is the Rock Of Gibraltar filly RENUMANI, she comes in here with the fitness edge now 2nd up from a spell winkers off and blinkers on for the first time on the back of a below par effort 1st up over 1000m on this track, 2nd up last prep she finished 2l 3rd to the potentially smart type and very well bred Bedhrah at Mornington, Martika finished 2nd and Shamrocker finished 4th adding very good depth to the form coming out of that race suggesting Renumani is well above the level required to win here, leading hoop Luke Nolen is engaged for the Freedman yard which boosts confidence, anything better than 9/2 or 5.50 represents good value and she will easily trade well above those odds. Decent confidence exists for us about this bet.