Saratoga G1 Previews For Saturday

Three G1 races highlight a high class card at Saratoga on Saturday including the following races. Travers Stakes, Ballerina Stakes, Kings Bishop Stakes. Previews of all 3 races are highlighted below.

For more detailed FREE race previews daily go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

Saratoga R10 - 7f G1 3yo+F&M $250K

1st INFORMED DECISION - winner 13 of 18 including the Breeders Cup Fillies & Mares Sprint over 7f at the end of 2009 defeating the high class Ventura with a good margin to 3rd and 4th who both won next time out franking the form, back into the winners circle each of last 2 starts against weaker than it faces here but is proven at this level and likely to secure a good trip stalking from better than midfield.

2nd QUALIA - lightly raced improver by Saarland (Unbridled) out of a Meadowlake mare, winner 3 on end improving each time culminating in a 4.7l score at Belmont 2 back in $75K Optional Claming company before last start just missing behind Rightly So in the G2 Bed O Roses over 7f, scope for further improvement again here and pace scenario suggests a perfect trip stalking the leaders, the one with the most scope for further improvement out of these and has to be respected.

3rd JESSICA IS BACK - hit a new career peak last start winning the G1 Princess Rooney over 6f at Calder (Warbling 2nd), suited by the step to 7f but does not offer any more scope having faced the starter 44 times, realistically playing for the exotics tickets here.

Lay WARBLING - quoted as a 5.00 or 4/1 chance in prepost markets and has been beaten last 3 starts on end despite being lightly raced it looks as though may have hit its level, beaten by Informed Decision, Pretty Prolific and Jessica Is Back recently, hard to see it turning the tables here.

BETTING - Hard to deny the chances of the high class Informed Decision here having its 5th run this year, realistically need 3.20 or 9/4+ for value in this field and currently quoted at 3.50 or 5/2 in prepost markets.


Saratoga R11 - 7f G1 $250K

1st DISCREETLY MINE - hit a new career peak last start winning the G2 Amsterdam over 6.5f on this track by a widening 8.7l margin, 2l clear into the stretch then showed a sharp turn of foot to quickly put the issue beyond doubt, strong on the line suggesting the step to 7f will be no problems, has been beaten twice by Dfunnybone into 2nd previously but has hit a new level since whilst D Funnybone regressed slightly last start.

2nd BULLDOGGER - very lightly raced type having only 4th career start here and has big scope for further improvement, impressive winner last start over 6f on this track in $52K Allowance company, big margin also 2nd to 3rd that day adding good depth, dictated the pace on the front end and widened margin hitting the line strongly, 7f trip seems well within reach, also won debut by a wide margin over 6f on this track on sloppy going, warrants serious respect here

3rd D' FUNNYBONE - high class sprinter who has won five G2 events in its last 8 starts (yet to win in G1 company) including a score over Discreetly Mine 2 starts ago by 3.2l, doesnt look to have any further scope whilst Discreetly Mine has improved again since that last defeat, serious sprinter but faces a task vs the top 2 elects above.

Lay HURRICANE IKE & BANK MERGER - both of these 2 are also under the 10/1 line in prepost markets but they do not seem to possess the class levels of the top 3 chances nominated above who look to have the race between them so happy to lay both these 2 if bet on the exchanges below 11.00 or 10/1.

BETTING - Discreetly Mine is the clear top elect on its last start wide margin G2 win but looks skinny in the odds department prepost at 6/5 or 2.20, realistically need 2.70 or 7/4+ to make it a value betting commodity here.


Saratoga R12 - 10f G1 3yo $1000K

1st FLY DOWN - 2nd up off a short break after finishing 4.5l 5th in the Jim Dandy behind A LIttle Warm (had to come from off the pace in a leader dominated affair, good hidden merit), better suited here under the likely solid pace scenario, very good effort 3 back winning the G2 Dwyer at Belmont over 1m1/8th by 6l to Drosselmyer 2nd who came out and won the Belmont Stakes next start (finished a close 2nd to Drosselmyer in the Belmont), if anywhere near the level it showed in the Dwyer will shake this at a good price and prove hard to beat.

2nd TRAPPE SHOT - lightly raced improver who has won 4 from 6 and drawn for a perfect trip here (likely run of the race) stalking the leaders on the rail, winner 4 on end mostly by very big margins before last start finishing 4l 2nd to the best 3yo in the USA last start (Lookin At Lucky) in the G1 Haskell, scope for further improvement again here over the longer trip, ticks all of the right boxes.

3rd FRIEND OR FOE - won first 3 career starts before last start finishing 3l 4th in the G2 Jim Dandy, caught deep the entire trip that day and copped interference at a critical stage, very good merit battling on strongly that day without shirking the task, win 2 back in the Mike Lee at Belmont over 7f suggests it has the prfile to figure here with natural improvement, alley a minor query but if it gets cover stalking then it will be closing hard and may prove the knockout runner.

4th FIRST DUDE - has raced strictly in G1 company at its last 5 starts (sole win $45K Spcl Wghts Mdn) but not disgraced including finishing 2nd Preakness, 3rd Belmont Stakes and last start did all the work on the front end when battling on for 3rd in the G1 Haskell behind Lookin At Lucky, if it gets a soft trip infront here it is the one to run down, vulnerable to a few others with more scope.

5th SUPER SAVER - relished the slop in the Kentucky Derby holding sway over Ice Box and Paddy O Prado that day but got a perfect ride from Calvin Borel (master rails hugging cover trip in midfield), tough trip in the Haskill last start 3 wide on the pace but still should have finished off more strongly, true G1 horse but needs things to go its way and the alley is a big query here.

Lay A LITTLE WARM - won the Jim Dandy G2 last start but was very much one paced grinding performance after getting a perfect trip, no real further scope for ours and ridiculously short prepost at 7/2 or 4.50, great value laying commodity in a race full of proven G1 types and classy improvers as noted above.

BETTING - They bet 8/1 or 9.00 about Fly Down in prepost markets which looks great each way value but we also suggest a minor outlay on the other value pick on the top 3 being Friend Or Foe who is quoted at 15/1 or 16.00 prepost. Good value betting affair and good confidence exists. Top 5 listed above also look good for a high quality good paying exotic combination.

Caulfield Previews For Saturday

Below are previews for 4 of the 8 races at Caulfield on Saturday including the G2 Memsie Stakes.

For more detailed FREE race previews daily go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

Caulfield R4 - 1200m G3 3yo $125K

1st BREITLING - lightly raced improver by Lonhro who looked well above average when breaking its maiden 2 starts ago by 1.8l over Soul, considerable scope for further improvement again here, got too far back last start then was hampered at the 800m mark when 4.9l 6th to Toorak Toff in the Vain Stakes, Soul was only btn 0.2l by Toorak Toff that day so a line back through Soul suggests that effort was truely excusable, form refs out of 2nd start suggest it is a high class G2 winner on the make.

2nd GLENKINCHIE - very well bred unexposed type by Redoute's Choice out of the very good race mare Distilled, very good win on debut at Mornington 2 starts ago, did all the work on the front end and held sway over the likes of Eclair Mystic (won next 4 on end and undefeated since), very good hidden merit in that win, has major scope for further improvement here and massive overs at 41.00 in early betting markets, must be included from a value perspective.

3rd WILLOW CREEK - 1st up from a spell for the astute Moody yard, looked high class last prep especially final start when winning the G2 Magic Night Stakes in Sydney defeating More Strawberries, major scope for further improvement here and warrants serious respect.

Lay LIVEANDLETDIE & STRATCOMBE - Both of these are well in the market at 5.00 & 6.00 in early betting respectively but have a fair bit to find 1st up vs the other proven types in the race, they both have booms on them that are un-warranted and not proven, good value laying prospects in a very strong G3 race that will produce plenty of future winners.

BETTING - This race looks a good value betting affair but only mild confidence compared to some of the other major races on the day but still it must be played. enough depth in the prices of offer to back both Breitling as the major hope at 5.50 and also Glenkinchie at the odds of 41.00 (back it each way, small outlay) for a result across the race.


Caulfield R6 - 1400m G2 3yo+ WFA $200K

1st TYPHOON TRACY - the pace scenario will prove a critical factor here and Typhoon Tracy is likely to get a fairly soft trip on the front end with not a lot of early speed engaged in the race, when she gets her own way infront she is very hard to run down, she has won 3 from 4 1st up from a spell and 1st up last prep annexed the CF Orr Stakes over this track and distance by 1.8l.

2nd SHOOT OUT - looked very good last start winning the Liston Stakes 2nd up from a spell over this track and distance defeating Predatory Pricer with a good margin to 3rd, Predatory Pricer is a very good bench mark for this after winning the same race 1st up last season confirming Shoot Out is at the top of his game, gets the fitness edge on Typhoon Tracy but is yet to chase down such a gallant on pace high quality G1 performer.

3rd FAINT PERFUME - top class staying mare by Shamardal who is 1st up here obviously looking for longer being aimed at the 3 major Spring races but did win 1st up last prep over 1400m annexing the Kewney Stakes at G2 level, looks to be playing for the minor placing only as this does look a match race between Typhoon Tracy and Shoot Out.

Lay NOTHING - the market is basically got it correct here and there is no advantage in laying anything based on early odds assessments.

BETTING - not a major betting race from our perspective with not a lot of advantage to be found. Typhoon Tracy has been backed early from 3.20 into 2.80 and Shoot Out has drifted from 2.60 to 2.80 making them equal favorites. If you can get 3.30 or better about Typhoon Tracy on race day then she becomes a small betting prospect but with no great confidence.


Caulfield R5 - 1100m Lstd 4yo+ $100K

1st HERE DE ANGELS - hit a new career peak last 3 starts of last preperation when 2nd to Black Caviar followed by win over Lucky Secret in the Rubiton Stakes then nosed out by Starspangledbanner in the Oakliegh Plate, if it holds that form here 1st up it should decimate this bunch of sprinters, drawn down in the 1 alley, likely for a good trip on pace.

2nd SOLCHOW - another who hit career peak form on the back end of last preperation culminating in finishing 2nd to Catapulted in Adelaide at G3 level, good margin to 3rd (Augusta Proud) adds good depth to the form out of that race, gets in very well weighted here with only 53.5kg and drawn well in the 2 alley for a good on pace trip, has serious claims is Here De Angels doesnt fire.

3rd HEADWAY - finished 2nd in the Golden Slipper 2 seasons ago on a wet track and only btn just over 2l in three Group 1 sprints last prep behind Nicconi, Starspangledbanner and Wanted, below par 1st up from a spell last start but if it can recapture that form from last prep then it has to be respected here, logical exotic player.

Lay STANZOUT - close up behind Reward For Effort 3 starts ago and Shoot Out 2 starts ago but Reward For Effort is not the same horse as he was when winning the Blue Diamond and Shoot Out was not fully wound up 1st up that day so form refs out of both of those races are somewhat questionable, won last start at M Valley but the depth of that race also questionable vs this lot of seasoned good quality sprinters, weighted to the hilt, has enough against it to warrant it being a serious laying prospect as a 7.00 chance in a market, also remembering it may start shorter with 2nd fav Reward For Effort likely to race in Sydney.

BETTING - Very hard to go past the chances of Here De Angels who is 3.20 in early betting but also remembering that Reward for Effort (5.00) is likely to be scratched this one is more likely to go around as a 3.00 chance here, if you can secure 3.00 or better after Reward For Effort comes out then Here De Angels becomes a very bettable horse here.


Caulfield R7 - 1700m Lstd $100K

1st MUIR - import representing Lloyd Williams, very well bred by Galileo out of the Royal Academy mare Belle Allemande, raced in Ireland for Aiden Obrien under the name Johann Zoffany, broke its maiden over 1600m on yielding (slow) ground by 3.5l in a form race that has produced numerous Group quality stayers, obviously well above average, racing style in Ireland has it as a noted front runner and may get a fairly soft trip on the front end if same tactics are employed here, Group quality staying prospect who is massive overs here in betting at 31.00 and must be respected.

2nd MARTIAL LAW - very much a similar profile to our top elect here this one also being by Galileo out of the Grande Lodge mare Tree Tops, formerly raced in France for Andre Fabre before being snapped up by Lloyd Williams with the major spring targets in mind, finished 2nd on debut at Chantilly over 1600m with a massive 10l margin to 3rd in a high quality maiden which has since produced numerous Group quality staying form references, on pace tactics employed in France and if same tactics are employed here will give this lot something to run down being so well weighted with an affinity to wet going, once again like the top elect Muir is massive overs quoted at 26.00 in early betting markets, must be respected.

3rd MR CHARLIE - New Zealand bred and raced 5yo by decent sire of stayers, Golan, 1st Australian start here and now with the astute Peter Moody yard, probably wants slightly further but has won on the wet in a strong form race and then franked that form winning by 6l at Listed level last start (end of last prep), warrants respect.

4th THE MINIVER ROSE - bred to develop into a high class staying prospect by High Chapparal out of the Cape Cross mare Bloemfontain, forget one Australian start so far and go on prior UK form, broke maiden status 2nd career start over 8f on soft going at Doncaster and also is a G2 winner at Doncaster just before coming to Australia, obviously being aimed at longer races but has form in this going over this trip and possesses an on pace racing style, form out of maiden win suggests it can handle low quality stakes racing over this distance, another import in this race at big overs quoted 31.00 in early betting.

Lay (primary) APPREHEND & PINNACLES - both of these look well up against it taking on the import runners and the progressive local Moudre, Apprehend 6.50 and Pinnacles 8.00 are both unders.

Lay (secondary) MOUDRE - the hype surrounding this horses is huge considering his profile and he attempts to take another step up the class ladder here, has been overly impressive but takes on a very good quality Listed field here where the 4 imports noted above have been under-estimated by odds makers, hence this one is quoted as a very short priced 2.60 favorite, decent value laying prospect at anything less than 3.30.


BETTING - big value in this race around the well bred imports, we can back 3 horses here for a result across the race, Muir at 30/1, Martial Law at 25/1 and The Miniver Rose at 30/1 all offer up extremely good value, back all 3 to win with mild confidence.

Rosehill Previews Saturday

Below are previews for 6 of the 8 races at Rosehill on Saturday including the G1 Golden Rose.

For more detailed FREE race previews daily go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

Rosehill R4 - 1100m G3 3yo+ $125K

1st TRIM - lightly raced improver by Lonhro who ran 2nd to More Joyous 1st up last prep, dually engaged, this is the easier race to win, connections have made the right move.

2nd WINTER KING - has hit a new level this prep winning 2 on end on the back of 2 impressive trial wins, capable of another level now but has to contend with Trim.

3rd PATRONYME - impressive trial winner over Tickets in prep for return here, that was a very hot trial win with the likes of Blackball, Pinwheel, Tromso and Dorf Command further back, won 1st up last prep, every hope in an open affair.

Lay REWARD FOR EFFORT - won 1st up but that was a weak Listed event and has to cope with a hectic early speed here, has minor scope but juvenile Group 1 Blue Diamond win does not look that strong as a form ref now. Trades at 4.20 in early markets, big unders

BETTING - Trim looks exceptionally good value here early as an each way prospect at 7.50.


Rosehill R2 - 1200m C3 3yo+ $70K

1st LIGHTHORSEMAN - highly impressive trial winner by 4.8l in prep for return to racing here defeating Danleigh, hinted at being top class earlier in career, may be ready to produce it now on the track, bred to be high class.

2nd VERBALLED - very good win 2nd up last prep knocking off Sweepstaking over this track 1100m, trial winner in prep for return here, in well weighted and likely to secure a good on pace trip.

3rd KIMBERLEY KID - very good form last 3 starts winning 3 back at Randwick on heavy going then last start found 1300m too much when 0.5l 2nd to Little Surfer Girl in a strong form race, has claims.

Lay CLOTHING - has its fair share on ability but lookso very short in the early betting markets at 4.60, will have to chase down a few smart ones from off the pace who get weight off it, may want further and a faster tempo vs the top few here.

BETTING - Lighthorseman has promised so much previously and looks one of the better bets of the day going on its hot trial win, trading at 3.00 in early markets, likely to be bet around 3.50 closer to post time which is very good value.


Rosehill R1 - 1400m C3 3yo+F&M $70K

1st CLASSIC GUITAR - undefeated in 3 career starts and very well bred by Lonhro out of the smart race mare Hot Riff, last start win suggests it is a potential stakes horse on the make, if so then this is merely another stepping stone, gets weight off main seen rival We Betcha

2nd WE BETCHA - winner last 2 on end knocking off Shadow Minister and Counterpane both times over this track and distance, hard to fault form but takes on one who is better weighted with more scope in Classic Guitar.

3rd GRAGER - 3rd up here ready for a new peak, blowsed by Kerilla in a weaker race on paper at Newcastle last start but its trial win prior to 1st up effort suggests it is capable in this grade, in well weighted, may surprise at odds, 26.00 in early betting.

Lay LACADA SIREN & SNEAKY TSU - both of these are serious unders in early markets vs the top 2 above who look on paper to have this as a race in 2 between them, Lacada Siren 6.50 early and Sneaky Tsu 8.00 early.

BETTING - Classic Guitar is the deserved favorite here although we did expect the exposed form of We Betcha to make it favorite when we did our initial assessment of this race so from a value perspective Classic Guitar looks a bit short at 2.60 in early markets, need 3.20+ for value.


Rosehill R5 - 1800m Lst 3yo+ $100K

1st SHADOW MINISTER - overall this race lacks depth and the likely winner will be one with scope for further improvement who is well weighted, this one fits the bill perfectly under that scenario, at the end of last prep this 4yo Dane Shadow mare was only btn 0.8l by the improving stayer Ironstein over 2000m with a big margin to 3rd, she returned in good order last start just missing when 2nd to We Betcha over 1400m, will improve loads on that run here, likely for a new career peak which at the weights should see her hard to hold out.

2nd SCOUTING WIDE - shapes as the proven class stayer in this field but has to give weight away to the improving Shadow Minister and realistically doesnt have much more scope than it showed last prep, if Shadow Minister doesnt live up to the hype we have given it this one will be winning.

3rd THE EMBASSY - in and out type of customer who looked a well above average stakes winning stayer when winning the 2000m Randwick City Stakes at G3 level last prep by 4l but has failed to reproduce that form since, if he can get back to that level here he will give this a massive shake at a very good price, quoted at 13.00 in early markets.

Lay SNOW ALERT & MUSIC REVIEW - both of these 2 occupy the equal 2nd line of betting in early markets at 7.00 but look up against it taking on Scouting Wide, Shadow Minister, The Embassy & Sherpa Tenzig who all look better placed, Snow Alert represents the better laying value with n seen hope in our assessments but both can be layed here with decent confidence.

BETTING - We are prepared to back 2 here for a result across the race, Shadow Minister is good value at 9.00 as the top elect but also The Embassy is hard to go past at 13.00 especially if it can reproduce the form of its G3 win last prep, back both for a win with a bigger outlay obviously on the main elect Shadow Minister.


Rosehill R6 - 1400m G1 3yo $1000K

1st SASA - very well bred type who is 2nd up here after an excusable 1st up effort midfield behind Squamosa on a wet track in the Run To The Rose, looked top class breaking its maiden 2nd up last prep by 5.8l w2ith Parables 2nd adding big depth to that form now, also other big form refs out of the race further back, franked that maiden win when 0.2l 2nd to Skilled in the Champagne Stakes, scope for further improvement here, adaptable type who can lead or come from off the pace with equal effect, bonus considering the wide gate, we feel this horse is a true 1000 Guineas candidate (on offer at 20/1) and also a very good value long term Cox Plate prosect (on offer at 150/1), if our assessment is true she will shake the life out of this race at a big value quote of 25/1, backed in early markets already down from 40/1.

2nd MASQUERADER - suffered 1st career defeat last start when 2nd to Squamosa over 1300m in the Run To The Rose, closed off with big pars in deep stretch from well back, run of the race, massive scope for further improvement here, gave 5kg away to most of its rivals that day, back at set weights for this test, looks perfectly suited but may be bumping into a potential topliner in the form of Sasa so from a value perspective we put it in for 2nd here.

3rd CHANCE BYE - was a toss up between this one and Crystal Lily for 3rd but leant this way for numerous reasons, looked like it has learnt to settle better in its races now and should get the 1400m strongly and is drawn a good gate for one of the runs of the race (Crystal Lily is out near the car park), dams side of pedigree suggests it will stay and showed signs of that when doing best work on the line behind Parables 1st up in clearly a stronger race than Crystal Lily's 1st up 2nd to Panipique, 17.00 on offer compared to 4.40 for Crystal Lily makes us go Chance Bye for 3rd.

Lay TOORAK TOFF - looked good winning 1st up in Melbourne in the Vain Stakes but overall depth of that win looks questionable taking on a good G1 quality field here despite being suited by the step to 1400m, also not at best when trying this way of going 2 runs end of last prep 4th in the Sires Produce and 7th in the Champagne Stakes, has a lot against it considering the 5.00 odds in early markets, good confidence laying material.

BETTING - This shapes as a very good value betting affair as far as we are concerned, we are overly confident about the chances of Sasa winning here and the 26.00 on offer is massive overs, back it each way with big confidence, also back Chance Bye at the good odds of 17.00 on offer, there is enough depth in the betting market to also save on Masquerader. Potentially the best value betting race of the day in terms of value vs confidence.


Rosehill R7 - 1100m Lstd 3yo+F&M $100K

1st AVENUE - prepared to forgive its 1st up effort when 5th to Jeuneyman, went too fast in front and fitness gave way, very good merit considering, looked top class 2 preparations ago winning 3 on end and obviously better than efforts from last prep suggest, astute yard who ships horses with great success inter state and top hoop D Oliver booked, very well bred being a full sister to top class sprinting mare Virage De Fortune, ticks enough boxes to warrant good support at 9.00 in early markets.

2nd DE LIGHTNING RIDGE - came of age last prep winning the G2 Challenge Stakes 3rd up over a hot field for the class, highly impressive trial win by 5l in prep for return here and won by6 a widening 4l margin 1st up last prep, very good sprinting pedigree by Tale Of The Cat out of the former top class race mare Nanny Maroon, racing style suits likely to get one of the runs of the race tracking an even to solid tempo, serious claims.

3rd SISTER MADLY - a fair few came into consideration for 3rd but this one gets the nod slightly with the decisive factor being that it gets in so well weighted here with only 53.5kg, very well bred by Redoute's Choice out of Jade Tiara (dam of world champion sprinter Silent Witness)forget last prep, go on efforts 2 preps ago when 0.2l 2nd in G2 company followed by 1.2l 3rd to Rostova in G1 company, both those races slightly below par for the grade but has further scope here and weight gives it the edge over the likes of More Joyous, Dorf Command and the improving Girl Hussler.

Lay MORE JOYOUS - top class race mare but has to lump 59kg vs some very smart sprinters, also is drawn the carpark and may get caught deep or be forced to work too hard early, trial winner in prep for this but surely looking for further these days, too much against it considering the odds of 2.60 that have been offered up early, good value lay at anything less than 3.00.

BETTING - Another good confidence betting affair for us, we can back both Avenue at 9.00 and De Lightning Ridge at 5.50 for a result across the race as they look to have it between them to a major degree in terms of value vs confidence.

Australian Wednesday Racing Tips

Tips for Wednesday in Australia will be broken into a few different categories and updated periodically as we progress through the day. Make sure to refresh this page at regular intervals for the latest bets and staking.

Quality Win Bets

• Sandown R1 No2 Convent Street
• Canterbury R1 No2 St Augustine
• Sandown R2 No2 Trenchtown
• Eagle Farm R2 No5 Wonderful Lass - 1st @ 6.20
• Canterbury R2 No2 Show Dancer
• Sandown R3 No3 Ten To Midnight
• Eagle Farm R3 No5 Seqsational
• More selections updated soon
  

Quality Place Bets

• Canterbury R1 No2 St Augustine
• Sandown R3 No3 Ten To Midnight
• More selections updated soon
  

Value Win Bets

• More selections updated soon

Lay Bets

• Canterbury R1 No4 Bottled Up
• Eagle Farm R2 No1 Better Option
• Eagle Farm R2 No2 Executive Officer
• Canterbury R2 No5 Needwood Lad
• Sandown R3 No7 Braided General
• Sandown R3 No8 Dad Knows Best
• Eagle Farm R3 No3 Lucky Deluchi
• More selections updated soon
  

Geelong Quaddie Combinations For Tuesday

The Geelong Quadrella looks a nice exotic to be playing on Tuesday with big fields the order of the day in Race 7 & 8 and strong standout combinations in Race 5 & 6 making it a very winnable betting option.

Geelong Quaddie numbers are as follows

R5 - No3 Dorsoduro, No5 Spontaneous

R6 - No1 Bluey's Mist, No2 Kaeduna

R7 - No2 Fatherson, No13 Sir Puddles

R8 - No3 Savaging, No8 You I Find, NoNo9 Kissy Lips

Total 24 combinations

As a further win betting note there are 2 top quality win betting propositions amongst the quaddies races.

R5 No3 Dorsoduro was super impressive winning at Flemington 3 starts ago in $100L Open 3yo company and drops sharply in class here to an even more suitable 2000m trip and should prove very hard to hold out.

R6 No1 Bluey's Mist broke its maiden impressively on this track 4 starts ago by 2l over 1000m hitting the line strongly suggesting this 1100m trip would suit even better than 2 starts ago was only btn 1.7l at Caulfield over 1200m in $70K Open 3yo fillies company, it faces a major class drop here and takes on only average quality foes for the grade, it too is very hard to hold out.

For more high quality bets daily for AUS, UK & USA Racing go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

WARRACKNABEAL R2 - Russell Cameron To Strike - The 2nd race on the card from Warracknabeal on Saturday offers up one of the best bets of the day in terms of overall confidence and potential value in the form of DEFYING GRAVITY. The 3yo filly by Flying Spur out of the former high class race mare The Big Chill looks perfectly placed to break its maiden tag at the 5th time of asking here, last start it got caught deep on the front end and was forced to do the most work of the on pacers and battled on strongly to finish 4th over 1100m at Geelong btn 2.5l in a clearly stronger maiden than this. All the first 3 home came from midfield or worse adding big depth to the performance. 3 starts ago she finished 2nd to the next start wide margin $40K winner Martika with a good margin to 3rd and that day, she was awkwardly away and forced to come from off the pace, she would have won if she jumped with them. The alley is the only real query here but she has the early tactical speed to overcome that query and the addition of blinkers 1st time is also a major plus, she ticks all the right boxes for a very astute yard and will prove very hard to hold out, anything better than 2.60 or just over 6/4 is good value, it is likely 2/1 or 3.00 will be readily available. Confidence is very high for a winning collect in this race.

KEMBLA GRANGE R3 - BRECCIA To Break Through - Bart Cummings will turn to the addition of 1st time winkers for his 4yo Fastnet Rock mare BRECCIA in the 3rd race at Kembla Grange on Saturday in an effort to revive her form back to the levels that saw her show such promise when breaking her maiden over this track and distance last preperation. That day she dictated the speed on the front end and found plenty when asked to hold sway over the well bred Redoute's Choice mare Wild Orange to score by 1.8l with a further 3.5l back to 3rd adding very good merit to the performance, further form refs back through the likes of Ayrton 4th and Figasaurus 5th that day suggest Breccia is capable of easily winning a midweek city staying race when right so this race seems well within her grasp, if the addition of winkers and removal of blinkers have the desired effect she will prove hard to hold out here and likely at a good price, she also drops sharply in class on her last start failure and 3 starts ago 2nd up looked ready to win after finishing a hard closing 2nd to Girlfriday over an unsuitable 1400m trip.

KEMBLA GRANGE R2 - Another Waterhouse Provincial Winner? - Race 2 on the card from Kembla Grange on Saturday shapes as another very strong form race that is likely to throw up plenty of future winners and one that makes particularly strong appeal is the Waterhouse trained Exceed And Excel filly VALOUR, she has only raced once when finishing 4.7l 3rd to the potentially high class Elimbari over 1100m at Rosehill last prep, 4th and 5th home in that race both won quickly after adding good depth to the form out of the race, her trial form is is top class for a race of this nature winning both of her trials by big margins including in prep for her return here when scoring in slow going over 740m at Randwick, Chula Vista was well btn 6.6l in 3rd that day and other form refs out of that trial mark her as a certain Saturday city winner in the future. This looks merely a stepping stone to stronger quality races. Anything better than 3/1 here is good value but do not take below that price as there is a lot of depth and unexposed types in this race but clearly the trial form around VALOUR makes her the top elect and a worthwhile betting proposition if the right odds are on offer.

KEMBLA GRANGE R1 - GERMANICUS Has Speed To Burn - A small but select field for the 1st race on the card at Kembla Grange on Saturday. The General Nediym 4yo gelding Germanicus has been promising to do something special for some time now and his prior trial form suggests he is well above the level required to win a race of this nature as does his exposed race form. He comes in here without trialling which will see him totally fresh and ready to produce that blistering speed he has in past trials including before the start of last prep when a close 2nd to Kimberley Kid with a further 6l margin back to 3rd. He looks the one to beat and confidence is good, anything better than 2/1 is good odds for this prospect.

The early scratching of Cap Dancer makes Germanicus even a better bet now and 11/8 or 2.40 is realistically a good value price to take now.

MOONEE VALLEY R5 - Another Good Value 2 Horse War - The Listed McKenzie Stakes which is Race 5 at Moonee Valley on Saturday shapes as a high class renewal of the race likely to throw up plenty of future winners and realistically a Group class performance will be required to annex the race. 4 major chances exist but we have strong confidence around 2 of them creating nice value.

On top here we like the speedily bred IN FAITH who won 2 from 3 starts in its debut prep including its 2nd career start by 4.3l over this track and distance defeating Ebony Rock who the start prior was beaten the same margin by Military Rose in the Magic Millions and the start after was beaten 2.8l by Shamrocker in the VRC Sires Produce. Both of those form references suggest In Faith is a high class sprinter on the make capable of winning Group quality races and it is already confirmed it loves the Moonee Valley layout, it is the obvious top elect from an exposed form perspective. Currently on offer at 4/1 good value exists.

The big value commodity here and the one that is likely to form the major danger to In Faith is the Redoute's Choice gelding REKINDLED INTEREST who won its only start last prep at Bendigo over 1000m. It sat 2 wide outside the leader that day and battled on strong down the stretch to hold sway over Garvan who flashed big closing pars from off the pace with a big margin 2nd to 3rd adding good depth to the form out of the race. Garvan prior finished 2nd to Love In Spring and a form line can be taken back to Willow Creek and Eclair Mystic through that run putting Rekindled Interest in this with a very serious hope and currently trading at 16/1 it shapes as excellent value.

So back both IN FAITH (3 units @ 4/1) & REKINDLED INTEREST (1 unit @ 16/1) for a result across the race, confidence is good.