Caulfield Previews For Saturday

Below are previews for 4 of the 8 races at Caulfield on Saturday including the G2 Memsie Stakes.

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Caulfield R4 - 1200m G3 3yo $125K

1st BREITLING - lightly raced improver by Lonhro who looked well above average when breaking its maiden 2 starts ago by 1.8l over Soul, considerable scope for further improvement again here, got too far back last start then was hampered at the 800m mark when 4.9l 6th to Toorak Toff in the Vain Stakes, Soul was only btn 0.2l by Toorak Toff that day so a line back through Soul suggests that effort was truely excusable, form refs out of 2nd start suggest it is a high class G2 winner on the make.

2nd GLENKINCHIE - very well bred unexposed type by Redoute's Choice out of the very good race mare Distilled, very good win on debut at Mornington 2 starts ago, did all the work on the front end and held sway over the likes of Eclair Mystic (won next 4 on end and undefeated since), very good hidden merit in that win, has major scope for further improvement here and massive overs at 41.00 in early betting markets, must be included from a value perspective.

3rd WILLOW CREEK - 1st up from a spell for the astute Moody yard, looked high class last prep especially final start when winning the G2 Magic Night Stakes in Sydney defeating More Strawberries, major scope for further improvement here and warrants serious respect.

Lay LIVEANDLETDIE & STRATCOMBE - Both of these are well in the market at 5.00 & 6.00 in early betting respectively but have a fair bit to find 1st up vs the other proven types in the race, they both have booms on them that are un-warranted and not proven, good value laying prospects in a very strong G3 race that will produce plenty of future winners.

BETTING - This race looks a good value betting affair but only mild confidence compared to some of the other major races on the day but still it must be played. enough depth in the prices of offer to back both Breitling as the major hope at 5.50 and also Glenkinchie at the odds of 41.00 (back it each way, small outlay) for a result across the race.


Caulfield R6 - 1400m G2 3yo+ WFA $200K

1st TYPHOON TRACY - the pace scenario will prove a critical factor here and Typhoon Tracy is likely to get a fairly soft trip on the front end with not a lot of early speed engaged in the race, when she gets her own way infront she is very hard to run down, she has won 3 from 4 1st up from a spell and 1st up last prep annexed the CF Orr Stakes over this track and distance by 1.8l.

2nd SHOOT OUT - looked very good last start winning the Liston Stakes 2nd up from a spell over this track and distance defeating Predatory Pricer with a good margin to 3rd, Predatory Pricer is a very good bench mark for this after winning the same race 1st up last season confirming Shoot Out is at the top of his game, gets the fitness edge on Typhoon Tracy but is yet to chase down such a gallant on pace high quality G1 performer.

3rd FAINT PERFUME - top class staying mare by Shamardal who is 1st up here obviously looking for longer being aimed at the 3 major Spring races but did win 1st up last prep over 1400m annexing the Kewney Stakes at G2 level, looks to be playing for the minor placing only as this does look a match race between Typhoon Tracy and Shoot Out.

Lay NOTHING - the market is basically got it correct here and there is no advantage in laying anything based on early odds assessments.

BETTING - not a major betting race from our perspective with not a lot of advantage to be found. Typhoon Tracy has been backed early from 3.20 into 2.80 and Shoot Out has drifted from 2.60 to 2.80 making them equal favorites. If you can get 3.30 or better about Typhoon Tracy on race day then she becomes a small betting prospect but with no great confidence.


Caulfield R5 - 1100m Lstd 4yo+ $100K

1st HERE DE ANGELS - hit a new career peak last 3 starts of last preperation when 2nd to Black Caviar followed by win over Lucky Secret in the Rubiton Stakes then nosed out by Starspangledbanner in the Oakliegh Plate, if it holds that form here 1st up it should decimate this bunch of sprinters, drawn down in the 1 alley, likely for a good trip on pace.

2nd SOLCHOW - another who hit career peak form on the back end of last preperation culminating in finishing 2nd to Catapulted in Adelaide at G3 level, good margin to 3rd (Augusta Proud) adds good depth to the form out of that race, gets in very well weighted here with only 53.5kg and drawn well in the 2 alley for a good on pace trip, has serious claims is Here De Angels doesnt fire.

3rd HEADWAY - finished 2nd in the Golden Slipper 2 seasons ago on a wet track and only btn just over 2l in three Group 1 sprints last prep behind Nicconi, Starspangledbanner and Wanted, below par 1st up from a spell last start but if it can recapture that form from last prep then it has to be respected here, logical exotic player.

Lay STANZOUT - close up behind Reward For Effort 3 starts ago and Shoot Out 2 starts ago but Reward For Effort is not the same horse as he was when winning the Blue Diamond and Shoot Out was not fully wound up 1st up that day so form refs out of both of those races are somewhat questionable, won last start at M Valley but the depth of that race also questionable vs this lot of seasoned good quality sprinters, weighted to the hilt, has enough against it to warrant it being a serious laying prospect as a 7.00 chance in a market, also remembering it may start shorter with 2nd fav Reward For Effort likely to race in Sydney.

BETTING - Very hard to go past the chances of Here De Angels who is 3.20 in early betting but also remembering that Reward for Effort (5.00) is likely to be scratched this one is more likely to go around as a 3.00 chance here, if you can secure 3.00 or better after Reward For Effort comes out then Here De Angels becomes a very bettable horse here.


Caulfield R7 - 1700m Lstd $100K

1st MUIR - import representing Lloyd Williams, very well bred by Galileo out of the Royal Academy mare Belle Allemande, raced in Ireland for Aiden Obrien under the name Johann Zoffany, broke its maiden over 1600m on yielding (slow) ground by 3.5l in a form race that has produced numerous Group quality stayers, obviously well above average, racing style in Ireland has it as a noted front runner and may get a fairly soft trip on the front end if same tactics are employed here, Group quality staying prospect who is massive overs here in betting at 31.00 and must be respected.

2nd MARTIAL LAW - very much a similar profile to our top elect here this one also being by Galileo out of the Grande Lodge mare Tree Tops, formerly raced in France for Andre Fabre before being snapped up by Lloyd Williams with the major spring targets in mind, finished 2nd on debut at Chantilly over 1600m with a massive 10l margin to 3rd in a high quality maiden which has since produced numerous Group quality staying form references, on pace tactics employed in France and if same tactics are employed here will give this lot something to run down being so well weighted with an affinity to wet going, once again like the top elect Muir is massive overs quoted at 26.00 in early betting markets, must be respected.

3rd MR CHARLIE - New Zealand bred and raced 5yo by decent sire of stayers, Golan, 1st Australian start here and now with the astute Peter Moody yard, probably wants slightly further but has won on the wet in a strong form race and then franked that form winning by 6l at Listed level last start (end of last prep), warrants respect.

4th THE MINIVER ROSE - bred to develop into a high class staying prospect by High Chapparal out of the Cape Cross mare Bloemfontain, forget one Australian start so far and go on prior UK form, broke maiden status 2nd career start over 8f on soft going at Doncaster and also is a G2 winner at Doncaster just before coming to Australia, obviously being aimed at longer races but has form in this going over this trip and possesses an on pace racing style, form out of maiden win suggests it can handle low quality stakes racing over this distance, another import in this race at big overs quoted 31.00 in early betting.

Lay (primary) APPREHEND & PINNACLES - both of these look well up against it taking on the import runners and the progressive local Moudre, Apprehend 6.50 and Pinnacles 8.00 are both unders.

Lay (secondary) MOUDRE - the hype surrounding this horses is huge considering his profile and he attempts to take another step up the class ladder here, has been overly impressive but takes on a very good quality Listed field here where the 4 imports noted above have been under-estimated by odds makers, hence this one is quoted as a very short priced 2.60 favorite, decent value laying prospect at anything less than 3.30.


BETTING - big value in this race around the well bred imports, we can back 3 horses here for a result across the race, Muir at 30/1, Martial Law at 25/1 and The Miniver Rose at 30/1 all offer up extremely good value, back all 3 to win with mild confidence.