USA Racing Picks - Monday 19 July 2010

Monday racing in the USA will see us concentrate on action from the high quality meetings at Prairie Meadows and Philadelphia. We have identified 8 good quality bets across the 2 tracks as listed below.

Prairie Meadows R2 No5 Old Man Who - wide margin winner over 6f on this track last start when dictated the from end and put a 7l margin on the field entering the stretch holding sway to win by 6.5l, pace scenario suggests can get it fairly soft on the front end again and drop back to 5.5f here also suits, scope for further improvement being lightly raced and also well bred for this company by Stormy Atlantic out of the Wild Rush mare Wild Attraction. Jockey / trainer combo firing at 22% strike rate this track this season and trainer overall strike rate of 28% at this meet also reads very well. Ticks plenty of boxes. Good value on the morning line at 4/1.

Prairie Meadows R3 No5 Samara Street - faltered in the stretch 2 back over 1m1/16th in the $75K Hawkeyes Handicap and was unusually slow away that day, atoned last start scoring by a widening 7l over over 6f in a starter allowance on this track, has the tactical speed to get if fairly soft on the front here and should be able to get a mile under the conditions going on its last start win and also on breeding being by Street Cry out of an American Chance mare. Friend Of The Devil who finished 2nd to it last start came out and won a $25K Optional claimer next start by 4l and a few starts prior was only btn 3.3l in the $70K. Eisenhower, form franked. 4th home also came out and won next start further franking the form. Good value here at 3/1 on the morning line.

Prairie Meadows R5 No6 Heister Cat - drops back to 6f here on the back of faltering taking on a mile last start in Allowance company, only averagely away that day and caught 7 wide into the first turn, excuses, 2 back showed good speed on the front end in $35K Mdn company to win going away by 6.2l, nice turn of foot when 2l clear entering the stretch run to quickly put the issue beyond doubt, a repeat of that front end speed here will make it hard to hold out over the shorter 6f trip, overly well bred by Hold That Tiger (Storm Cat) out of a Air Forbes Won mare. Jockey / trainer combo striking at 20% from 25 attempts this season. Good scope for further improvement being lightly raced having only faced the starter 6 times. Good value on the morning line at 8/1.

Philadelphia R3 No3 Forcefully - flying at present winning 2 of its last 3, wide 8l margin winner 3 back over 6f on this track and 2nd home came out and won next start franking the form, last start also franks the form to a major degree scoring over 5.5f on this track by 2.5l, 3rd home in that race btn 5.2l won 2 of its prior 3 starts by good margins and 4th home also won 2 of its prior 3 starts by good margins, drawn well here to take advantage of the tactical speed it possesses to get a good trip on the front end, the one they have to run down....unlikely. Jockey / trainer combination very good striking at 25% this meet from 71 attempts, love this track with a record of 7-3-1-1 here and also a winner 2 from 5 over the distance, ticks plenty of boxes, very good value at 3/1 on the morning line.

Philadelphia R5 No9 Swashbuckler - made a mess of its foes over 5.5f last start in this class scoring by a widening 5.7l margin hitting the line strongly but was disqualified so still a maiden, drawn wide here but has the early speed to cross and get a good on pace trip without working too hard early, good speed pedigree by Orientate out of the Pulpit mare Deaconess Bonnie, trainer hot this meet striking at 27% from 33 runners. Meets an average lot and should break maiden here. Good value on the morning line at 5/2.

Philadelphia R6 No6 Il Terrazzo - takes a major class drop here to the "sell and win" level on the back of being btn 5l last 2 starts in $45K allowance company on this track, very good efforts 3 and 4 back vs stronger inc 3 back when 2nd btn 0.2l by Zooger over 1m70y on this track in $43K allowance company, 3rd home C Street (btn 2.5l by Il Terrazzo) came out and finished 2nd last start in a stronger claimer than this one faces here and 4th home Ry's Not Shy (btn 6l by Il Terrazzo) finished 2nd next start in a $25K Optional Claimer), both of those horses frank the form to a major degree suggesting this one is well above the level required to win here. Good record on this track which reads 9-4-2-0 and good record over this distance winning 3 from 4. Ticks plenty of the right boxes, very hard to beat and good value at 7/2 prepost.

Philadelphia R7 No2 Pin Turn - superbly bred type by Pivotal out of the former high class multiple G1 winning race mare Ipi Tombe, drops back to a more suitable trip here on the back of trying a mile last start, faltered on the front end speed that day and only battled on down the stretch to be beaten 4l into 5th. Go on effort 2 starts back when 3rd btn 1l over 6f in $50K Mdn company at Belmont, 4th and 5th home that day both came out and won next start adding very good depth to the form, Pin Turn that day sat outside a fast pace facing the breeze under a fast tempo and battled on strongly (good merit, best of the on pacers), likely to get it softer here on the front over 5f and should prove hard to run down against what is clearly a weaker field. Trainer / jockey combo hot striking at 29% this meet and 27% this season from a total of 33 runners. About the right price on the morning line from a value perspective at 2/1.

Philadelphia R8 No1 Dark Thunder - having 3rd career start here on the back of 2 very good efforts so far suggesting it may be a high class sprinter on the make, on debut finished 2nd btn 3l by Gunfighter over this track and distance, Gunfighter since won 2 high purse Allowance races by wide margins (8l+) franking the form and 3rd home in that debut maiden also came out and won its next start by a wide margin at Belmont over 7f (7lengths), Dark Thunder won next start at Monmouth over 6f by 4.2l defeating Six Gun City 2nd who came out and won its next start by 4.2l further adding big depth to the Gunfighter form. Likely to get to a strong on pace position from the coveted rails draw without working too hard early and should prove very hard to hold out over this favored 6f speed test considering further scope being so lightly raced. Form franked no matter where you look and at 9/2 on the morning line represents excellent value.

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