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07/09/2010

Triple Bend Handicap G1 Preview - USA Racing Saturday 10 July

6th Race - Hollywood Park - Saturday, July 10th, 2010
STAKES. 7 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $250,000. Triple Bend H. (Grade 1). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. By subscription of $300 each on or before Wednesday, June 30 or by supplementary nomination of $4,000 each by 3:00 pm Saturday, July 3. $3,000 additional to start, with $225,000 guaranteed, and an additional $25,000 from the Breeders' Cup Fund for Breeders' cup nominees only. The host association's money to be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 12% to third, 6% to fourth and 2% to fifth. Breeders' cup monies correspondingly divided providing a Breeders' Cup nominee has finished in an awarded position. Highweights will be preferred. Breeders Cup nominees will be preferred over non Breeders' Cup nominees assigned equal weight. Weights Sunday, July 4 Starters to be named through the entry box by closing time of entries. A Trophy will be presented to the winning owner and trainer. (03:35 PM) (8)
PP    Horse    Comment
1    E Z's Gentleman    g2+, pace profile suits here over 7f going on good closing efforts when 0.7l 2nd in G3 company last start and 0.7l 3rd in g2 company 3 back, minor scope for more, has claims
2    Fantasy Free    looks no more than listed quality despite finishing close behind ez's gentleman 4 and 5 back (ez's gentleman has continued upward spiral), hard to see this one figuring
3    M One Rifle    g1++??, obscure pedigree but looks a high class sprinter on the make, likely for a solo soft lead here with no pressure (big bonus), g1 malibu winner end of last prep (race full of merit, plenty of depth), excuses both starts this prep, slowly away 1st up, pressured trip 2nd up, fitter now with natural scope, worked the house down over 3 panels july 7, quickest of 24 in 33 3/5, ready to peak now, in this up to its ears.
4    Gayego      g1+?, below par each of last 2 starts in dubai but won the ancient title g1 4 back in a high class affair (2nd home was 2nd breeders cup sprint nxt start and 4th home 3rd in breeders cup sprint nxt start), big closing pars getting home over the top that day, btn a neck 4th breeders cup sprint next start when slowly away (form franked), quickest of 19 works 5 panels july 3 at belmont in prep for return, , proven class runner but may struggle to run down M One Rifle who will get it soft on the front.
5    Bestdressed    winner 4 from 14 on this track but held by fantasy free 2 back in the Tiznow $150K stakes, btn 5.2l in the g2 san carlos start prior, making up the numbers here.
6    Sangaree    g2+?, drops back in trip for this after being easily held 2nd by rail trip around 2 turns each of last 2 starts, joe hernandez $55K stake win 4 back over 6.5f reads well, 2nd and 4th home finished 1st and 4th in the g1 shoemaker a few starts later, form franked, upward profile, outside claims.
7    My Summer Slew    g2-, won the rk kerlan $65k stake last start, form ref through stoneside 2nd puts it 1l below sangaree and start prior was 1.7l below ez's gentleman, form refs true through those 2 horses, 7f may be a stretch for it but outside claims on exposed form all the same
8    New Bay     held sway over best dressed last start 7f allowance optional claimer and already established that fantasy free / best dressed form is not good enough to win this, slaughtered by M One rifle in the G1 malibu 4 back, merely making up the numbers.

1st M One Rifle 3.00
2nd Gayego 3.75
3rd E Z's Gentleman 8.20
4th Sangaree 9.50
5th My Summer Slew 11.70

The pace scenario here suggests M One Rifle has a big advantage likely to get it fairly soft on the front end and that should be the telling factor when Gayego and co come to chase it down at the business end. M One Rifle should kick on in deep stretch and hold sway over the closers. Gayego is the class runner and should get home over the top of E Z's Gentleman who is likely to battle on strongly along the rail and gets the nod for 3rd over the likes of Sangaree and My Summer Slew who rate not far behind E Z's Gentleman

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