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07/08/2010

Man O War G1 Preview - USA Racing Saturday 10 July

9th Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, July 10th, 2010
STAKES. 1 3/8 Mile Turf. Purse $600,000. Man o' War S. (Grade 1). INNER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. (05:17 PM) (8)
PP    Horse    Comment
1    Interpatation    needs wet ground, won turf classic 3 starts on this track soft ground, nothing since, needs to lift significatly
2    Bearpath    beat a couple of nice types at Gulfstream 3 back but balance of form suggests g2/g3 level at best
3    Strike A Deal    g2+??, snippets of form that suggest it is capable at this level, g2 dixie win 2 back at pimlico suggests 1l below true g1 level currently
4    Expansion    g1-, career best effort effort in the g1 manhattan last start, limited scope for more, gio ponti has its measure on that meeting but claims all the same
5    Mission Appro    g3 wins in 08 represent its best form, consistent vs weaker last few but making up the numbers here
6    Grand Couturie    expansion, interpetation and gio ponti all have it covered, 3-4l below the level required to be competitive here, outside place claims
7    Midnite Silver    g1?, lightly raced improver who looks to have the measure of expansion clearly on form refs out of last start win, scope for more, career peak last start, will appreciate this longer trip, serious claims vs gio ponti, +6lbs expansion
8    Gio Ponti    g1+?, sets the standard, won 4 turg g1's on end last season, showed was ready to produce that level again when a hard closing 2nd in the manhattan g1 last start, +9lbs expansion last start, scope for a bit more improvement again here 2nd up

1st Gio Ponti 2.10
2nd Midnite Silver 3.30
3rd Expansion

Can lay any outside the top 2, they have it between them.

Mission Approved looks the likely leader in a slowly run race. Gio Ponti likely to settle closer to the pace than Midnite Silver which is a big advantage under the pace scenario and should give Gio Ponti the edge required to hold sway when they both make their runs in deep stretch. Midnite Silver has more scope and loves this track (winner 4 from 7) but Gio Ponti has even a better record on this track and is the clear standard and one to beat.

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