Wolverhampton & Yarmouth Monday Previews

Leading into Glorious Goodwood coverage which starts on Tuesday we highlights the best value bets for the meetings from Wolverhampton and Yarmouth on Monday. More high quality FREE bets can be found daily for UK racing on our main website at www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

Yarmouth 2.15 Pockets's Pick - Speed is the key here and one that is definitely bred for it is the Exceed And Excel 4yo Pocket's Pick, gets in well on the back of a very good merit 2nd last start btn 0.5l by You'relikemefrank. Did all the work on the front end that day and battled on strongly, best merit run of the race, can go one better here dropping back to a sharper more suitable 5f43y trip.

Yarmouth 3.15 Dazzling Valentine - has race experience on its side and drops sharply in class on 3 exposed efforts inc 2 back when making strong headway from well back to finish 4th btn 1.7l at Chester over this trip behind Cheque Book, got home strongly over the top of some subsequent and prior well performed types suggesting a race of this nature is clearly within its grasp.

Yarmouth 3.45 Hustle - forget its last start effort and go on win 2 back at Newmarket over 7f scoring by 4.5l in a small 5 horse field over this trip. Has the runs on the board and that win suggested it was getting back to somewhere near its best, not badly weighted on form from middle of 09 when rated in the mid 80s, serious contender here and hard to hold out.

Yarmouth 4.15 Caracal - one of two worth backing here, lightly raced with significant scope, thrown in at the weights here going on effort 4 back at Lingfield over 7f btn 1.2l by Edinburgh Knight who franked the form making it 2 on end next start, other good form refs further back add extra merit to that effort. Fanning back on who rode it that day a bonus. The major chance.

Yarmouth 4.15 Bubbly Braveheart - the other one worth backing here and likely at a good price too for a result across the race, once again thrown in at the weights after the 7lb claim for Natasha Eaton, racing against older horses for the 1st time after being kept strictly to 3yo events so far this season, effort 5 back at Folkestone over 10f suggests it is well up this level, in significantly lower (after the claim) than the level that saw it finish 2,1,1 at the start of this season and 1st time visor suggests it may spark sharp improvement, ticks a fair few boxes for a race of this nature. Warrants serious respect.

Yarmouth 4.45 Excellent Guest - looks as though he has this race shot to pieces going on his form 3 starts ago when 2nd to Swilly Ferry over 6f at Newmarket, only btn 1l that day with good gaps further back through a 17 horse field, finished best of those who raced up the centre of the track and a repeat will see it hard to hold out here especially taking on tried older horses for the 1st time (has raced extensively vs good quality 3yo's so far this season).

Wolverhampton 2.30 Magestatic - gets in on a good rating here (well weighted) taking on older tried horses for this 1st time and being a lightly raced 3yo has good scope for further improvement, go on effort 2 back when 9.7l 4th to Qanoon over 8f at Newmarket (1st 2 well clear), form of those finishing around it suggests it is well above the level required to win a race of this nature, drops back in trip also suits as it was one paced the final furlong over 8f that day when outpaced by the top 2 home, battled on well considering, this much more to its liking.

Wolverhampton 3.30 Liberty Cap - big scope for further improvement here on the back of failing last start, very good win 2 back over Introvert at Newmarket, so many form refs out of that race suggest it has the measure of this lot, the only real danger is Yarooh but this one definitely has more scope and better exposed form.

Wolverhampton 5.30 Ancient Times - unusual scenario but there is 3 in this race worth backing and any of the 3 may strike at a big price, so dont leave any of the 3 out, this one is relatively unexposed and despite failing miserably its last 2 starts looks well placed here in a weak affair going on its 3rd career start when 1.5l 3rd to Gomrath (won also againt much stronger next start and 2nd home also franks the form to a major degree), bred to like the surface and stay by Smart Strike out of a Kendor mare.

Wolverhampton 5.30 National Theatre - the 2nd of 3 runners we will back here as noted above, very well bred by Rahy out of a Sadlers Wells mare and bred to stay, blinkers go on 1st time here for 4th career start, dismal last 2 starts but debut effort suggests it may just be up to this level, 2nd up from a decent spell with good scope, can surprise.

Wolverhampton 5.30 Love In The Park - drops in class and drops to a career low mark now rated only 59, has serious claims on effort 4 back when 1.2l 4th to Lytham over 11f at Kempton, last 2 start failures on turf and will appreciate getting back onto the AW surface here, well bred by Pivotal out of a Chief's Crown mare, do not take lightly.

USA Racing Picks - Monday 19 July 2010

Monday racing in the USA will see us concentrate on action from the high quality meetings at Prairie Meadows and Philadelphia. We have identified 8 good quality bets across the 2 tracks as listed below.

Prairie Meadows R2 No5 Old Man Who - wide margin winner over 6f on this track last start when dictated the from end and put a 7l margin on the field entering the stretch holding sway to win by 6.5l, pace scenario suggests can get it fairly soft on the front end again and drop back to 5.5f here also suits, scope for further improvement being lightly raced and also well bred for this company by Stormy Atlantic out of the Wild Rush mare Wild Attraction. Jockey / trainer combo firing at 22% strike rate this track this season and trainer overall strike rate of 28% at this meet also reads very well. Ticks plenty of boxes. Good value on the morning line at 4/1.

Prairie Meadows R3 No5 Samara Street - faltered in the stretch 2 back over 1m1/16th in the $75K Hawkeyes Handicap and was unusually slow away that day, atoned last start scoring by a widening 7l over over 6f in a starter allowance on this track, has the tactical speed to get if fairly soft on the front here and should be able to get a mile under the conditions going on its last start win and also on breeding being by Street Cry out of an American Chance mare. Friend Of The Devil who finished 2nd to it last start came out and won a $25K Optional claimer next start by 4l and a few starts prior was only btn 3.3l in the $70K. Eisenhower, form franked. 4th home also came out and won next start further franking the form. Good value here at 3/1 on the morning line.

Prairie Meadows R5 No6 Heister Cat - drops back to 6f here on the back of faltering taking on a mile last start in Allowance company, only averagely away that day and caught 7 wide into the first turn, excuses, 2 back showed good speed on the front end in $35K Mdn company to win going away by 6.2l, nice turn of foot when 2l clear entering the stretch run to quickly put the issue beyond doubt, a repeat of that front end speed here will make it hard to hold out over the shorter 6f trip, overly well bred by Hold That Tiger (Storm Cat) out of a Air Forbes Won mare. Jockey / trainer combo striking at 20% from 25 attempts this season. Good scope for further improvement being lightly raced having only faced the starter 6 times. Good value on the morning line at 8/1.

Philadelphia R3 No3 Forcefully - flying at present winning 2 of its last 3, wide 8l margin winner 3 back over 6f on this track and 2nd home came out and won next start franking the form, last start also franks the form to a major degree scoring over 5.5f on this track by 2.5l, 3rd home in that race btn 5.2l won 2 of its prior 3 starts by good margins and 4th home also won 2 of its prior 3 starts by good margins, drawn well here to take advantage of the tactical speed it possesses to get a good trip on the front end, the one they have to run down....unlikely. Jockey / trainer combination very good striking at 25% this meet from 71 attempts, love this track with a record of 7-3-1-1 here and also a winner 2 from 5 over the distance, ticks plenty of boxes, very good value at 3/1 on the morning line.

Philadelphia R5 No9 Swashbuckler - made a mess of its foes over 5.5f last start in this class scoring by a widening 5.7l margin hitting the line strongly but was disqualified so still a maiden, drawn wide here but has the early speed to cross and get a good on pace trip without working too hard early, good speed pedigree by Orientate out of the Pulpit mare Deaconess Bonnie, trainer hot this meet striking at 27% from 33 runners. Meets an average lot and should break maiden here. Good value on the morning line at 5/2.

Philadelphia R6 No6 Il Terrazzo - takes a major class drop here to the "sell and win" level on the back of being btn 5l last 2 starts in $45K allowance company on this track, very good efforts 3 and 4 back vs stronger inc 3 back when 2nd btn 0.2l by Zooger over 1m70y on this track in $43K allowance company, 3rd home C Street (btn 2.5l by Il Terrazzo) came out and finished 2nd last start in a stronger claimer than this one faces here and 4th home Ry's Not Shy (btn 6l by Il Terrazzo) finished 2nd next start in a $25K Optional Claimer), both of those horses frank the form to a major degree suggesting this one is well above the level required to win here. Good record on this track which reads 9-4-2-0 and good record over this distance winning 3 from 4. Ticks plenty of the right boxes, very hard to beat and good value at 7/2 prepost.

Philadelphia R7 No2 Pin Turn - superbly bred type by Pivotal out of the former high class multiple G1 winning race mare Ipi Tombe, drops back to a more suitable trip here on the back of trying a mile last start, faltered on the front end speed that day and only battled on down the stretch to be beaten 4l into 5th. Go on effort 2 starts back when 3rd btn 1l over 6f in $50K Mdn company at Belmont, 4th and 5th home that day both came out and won next start adding very good depth to the form, Pin Turn that day sat outside a fast pace facing the breeze under a fast tempo and battled on strongly (good merit, best of the on pacers), likely to get it softer here on the front over 5f and should prove hard to run down against what is clearly a weaker field. Trainer / jockey combo hot striking at 29% this meet and 27% this season from a total of 33 runners. About the right price on the morning line from a value perspective at 2/1.

Philadelphia R8 No1 Dark Thunder - having 3rd career start here on the back of 2 very good efforts so far suggesting it may be a high class sprinter on the make, on debut finished 2nd btn 3l by Gunfighter over this track and distance, Gunfighter since won 2 high purse Allowance races by wide margins (8l+) franking the form and 3rd home in that debut maiden also came out and won its next start by a wide margin at Belmont over 7f (7lengths), Dark Thunder won next start at Monmouth over 6f by 4.2l defeating Six Gun City 2nd who came out and won its next start by 4.2l further adding big depth to the Gunfighter form. Likely to get to a strong on pace position from the coveted rails draw without working too hard early and should prove very hard to hold out over this favored 6f speed test considering further scope being so lightly raced. Form franked no matter where you look and at 9/2 on the morning line represents excellent value.

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Ascot Best On Breeding Previews - UK Racing Friday 9 July

Ascot 2.25 Golden Creek - very well bred 1st starter by Seeking The Gold out of the very well related Saint Ballado mare Oyster Bay, this one is a half brother to a 2yo winner and is a $180K Keeneland September purchase, stable knows how to ready a early 2yo winner.

Ascot 3.00 Urban Poet - very well related by Dynaformer out of the high class producing Mr Prospector mare Preach who is also the dam of leading USA sire Pulpit (AP Indy), this one lightly raced and 2nd up here on the back of failing badly 1st up, run too bad to believe, blinkers go on 1st time which should spark sharp improvement and last season at 2nd career start finished 2l 3rd to Harbinger in the G3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood, anywhere near that level here and will dispose of this field at good odds, 14/1 prepost, massive value about a horse with scope (only started 7 times) that is proven well above the level required to win here.

Ascot 3.35 Twist Of Silver - real speed pedigree by the Breeders Cup Sprint winner of 2005 Silver Train (Old Trieste) out of the Storm Cat mare Twist Of Faith, looked a high class prospect on debut 3 back destroying a 3 runner field at Newmarket over 5f by 13l, form refs through the btn brigade that day suggest it is up to the level of impressive Exceed And Excel winner Excellebration who defeated another Exceed And Excel colt Belgian Bill by 2l who franked the form in a big way winning its 2nd start by 3l over Jaahiz, this one since tried against stronger (not disgraced when btn 8l by Memory at Ascot last start), back in the right grade now.

Ascot 4.10 Addictive Dream - decent sprinting pedigree by Kheleyf out of the Thatching mare Nottambula (unraced half sister to stakes performed Clinet), this one comes into this having mere 5th career start on the back of making 2 wins from 4 starts when putting good margins through an above average 0-85 6f field at Kempton last start, 2nd home Strictly Dancing (btn 2l) nosed out by Folly Bridge next start for a 24K purse and 5th home Glen Shiel (btn 8l) finished 2l 2nd to Cornus for a 12K purse next start, big franking of the form, more scope to come for this lightly raced sprinter, very good value prepost at 7/2.

Ascot 4.45 Qanoon - strong USA pedigree by Afleet Alex (won Preakness Stakes & Belmont Stakes both by wide margins) out of the G2 USA placed Caerleon mare Solvig who herself is a half sister to 2 other high class stakes performers being Lady Carlock and Swing That Cat, this one was a $600K yearling purchase and drops in class here having 3rd career start after winning by wide margins on debut 2 back at Newmarket over 8f, form franked through btn brigade putting it clearly above the level required to win here and has significant scope for further improvement.

Ascot 5.20 Run For Ede's - strong staying pedigree for this 12f trip by Peintre Celebre out of the well related Rainbow Quest mare Raincloud making this one a half relation to the stakes placed Overshadow, dam herself is a full sister to the high class G2 placed mare Tuning (only started 7 times), this one comes into this 2nd up from a spell with big scope for further improvement for fitness after finishing 2nd Some Sunny Day over 12f at Windsor, last prep looked the good when 1.7l 4th to Munsef for a 24K purse over 12f at Ascot when rated 78, now rated 77 so gets into this superbly weighted, also is a course and distance winner to add another tick to its profile, in this up to its ears, 4/1 prepost is good value.

Also available on FTHM. G1 Darley July Cup preview featuring Starspangledbanner vs Fleeting Spirit and others.

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Triple Bend Handicap G1 Preview - USA Racing Saturday 10 July

6th Race - Hollywood Park - Saturday, July 10th, 2010
STAKES. 7 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $250,000. Triple Bend H. (Grade 1). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. By subscription of $300 each on or before Wednesday, June 30 or by supplementary nomination of $4,000 each by 3:00 pm Saturday, July 3. $3,000 additional to start, with $225,000 guaranteed, and an additional $25,000 from the Breeders' Cup Fund for Breeders' cup nominees only. The host association's money to be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 12% to third, 6% to fourth and 2% to fifth. Breeders' cup monies correspondingly divided providing a Breeders' Cup nominee has finished in an awarded position. Highweights will be preferred. Breeders Cup nominees will be preferred over non Breeders' Cup nominees assigned equal weight. Weights Sunday, July 4 Starters to be named through the entry box by closing time of entries. A Trophy will be presented to the winning owner and trainer. (03:35 PM) (8)
PP    Horse    Comment
1    E Z's Gentleman    g2+, pace profile suits here over 7f going on good closing efforts when 0.7l 2nd in G3 company last start and 0.7l 3rd in g2 company 3 back, minor scope for more, has claims
2    Fantasy Free    looks no more than listed quality despite finishing close behind ez's gentleman 4 and 5 back (ez's gentleman has continued upward spiral), hard to see this one figuring
3    M One Rifle    g1++??, obscure pedigree but looks a high class sprinter on the make, likely for a solo soft lead here with no pressure (big bonus), g1 malibu winner end of last prep (race full of merit, plenty of depth), excuses both starts this prep, slowly away 1st up, pressured trip 2nd up, fitter now with natural scope, worked the house down over 3 panels july 7, quickest of 24 in 33 3/5, ready to peak now, in this up to its ears.
4    Gayego      g1+?, below par each of last 2 starts in dubai but won the ancient title g1 4 back in a high class affair (2nd home was 2nd breeders cup sprint nxt start and 4th home 3rd in breeders cup sprint nxt start), big closing pars getting home over the top that day, btn a neck 4th breeders cup sprint next start when slowly away (form franked), quickest of 19 works 5 panels july 3 at belmont in prep for return, , proven class runner but may struggle to run down M One Rifle who will get it soft on the front.
5    Bestdressed    winner 4 from 14 on this track but held by fantasy free 2 back in the Tiznow $150K stakes, btn 5.2l in the g2 san carlos start prior, making up the numbers here.
6    Sangaree    g2+?, drops back in trip for this after being easily held 2nd by rail trip around 2 turns each of last 2 starts, joe hernandez $55K stake win 4 back over 6.5f reads well, 2nd and 4th home finished 1st and 4th in the g1 shoemaker a few starts later, form franked, upward profile, outside claims.
7    My Summer Slew    g2-, won the rk kerlan $65k stake last start, form ref through stoneside 2nd puts it 1l below sangaree and start prior was 1.7l below ez's gentleman, form refs true through those 2 horses, 7f may be a stretch for it but outside claims on exposed form all the same
8    New Bay     held sway over best dressed last start 7f allowance optional claimer and already established that fantasy free / best dressed form is not good enough to win this, slaughtered by M One rifle in the G1 malibu 4 back, merely making up the numbers.

1st M One Rifle 3.00
2nd Gayego 3.75
3rd E Z's Gentleman 8.20
4th Sangaree 9.50
5th My Summer Slew 11.70

The pace scenario here suggests M One Rifle has a big advantage likely to get it fairly soft on the front end and that should be the telling factor when Gayego and co come to chase it down at the business end. M One Rifle should kick on in deep stretch and hold sway over the closers. Gayego is the class runner and should get home over the top of E Z's Gentleman who is likely to battle on strongly along the rail and gets the nod for 3rd over the likes of Sangaree and My Summer Slew who rate not far behind E Z's Gentleman

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Hollywood Gold Cup G1 Preview - USA Racing Saturday 10 July

8th Race - Hollywood Park - Saturday, July 10th, 2010
STAKES. 1 1/4 Mile Dirt. Purse $500,000. Hollywood Gold Cup H. (Grade 1). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. By subscription of $750 each on or before Wednesday, June 30, or by supplementary nomination of $10,000 each by 3:00 pm Saturday, July 3. All nominees to pay $3,500 to enter and an additional $4,000 to start. Gross Purse $500,000 of which $300,000 to be paid to the winner, $100,000 to second, $60,000 to third, $30,000 to fourth and $10,000 to fifth. Weights Sunday, July 4. Starters to be named through the entry box by closing time of entries. This race will not be divided. Entry fees will be refunded to all horses which fail to draw into this race. Trophies will be presented to the winning owner and trainer. (04:35 PM) (7)
PP    Horse    Comment
1    Cigar Man    yet to win in 6 tries on this track, well btn in g2 contests each of last 2 starts, well below level required to win at g1 level, hard to see it figuring
2    Compari     g1+??, won 6 on end before failing in the shoemaker g1 last start, lightly raced, good scope for more, extra trip a query but arcadia g2 win 2 backs suggests it is right in this, likely leader and should get it fairly soft on the front, bonus.
3    Awesome Gem    g1??, mixed form refs, effort 2 back in the charles town classic ($1m purse) full of merit, 1st and 3rd franked the form in a big way, repeat will see it figure here, has to chase from off the pace (that may play against it) but suited to this distance.
4    Richard's Kid    g2+/g1-, mixes form, san antonio g2 win looks below par 2 back, defeated rail trip 5 back in the pacific classic g1 but may have been fluked and flattered, form of those just behind (outside of rail trip) looks slightly suspect, pace scenario against it here.
5    Tres Borrachos    hard to see it figuring, well btn by rail trip each of last 2, merely making up the numbers.
6    Rail Trip    g1+++, seems to be going 3-4l better than it was at same stage last season, ran 2nd in both leads up last year before winning this by 3l, won both same leads up this season by 3l average, pace scenario favourable, surely will take some beating in what looks a below par g1 field, has this at its mercy.
7    Tap It Light    won the g3 tokyo city cup 2 back, no where near the level required to win here, as a minimum 4-5l below what is required to be competitive at g1 level, making up the numbers

1st Rail Trip 1.65
2nd Compari 5.20
3rd Awesome Gem 11.00

The pace scenario should see Compari lead with Rail Trip sitting on its hammer outside it with potentially the run of the race, they are likely to settle down and go away into the stretch run from the rest with Rail Trip proving much the best.

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Man O War G1 Preview - USA Racing Saturday 10 July

9th Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, July 10th, 2010
STAKES. 1 3/8 Mile Turf. Purse $600,000. Man o' War S. (Grade 1). INNER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. (05:17 PM) (8)
PP    Horse    Comment
1    Interpatation    needs wet ground, won turf classic 3 starts on this track soft ground, nothing since, needs to lift significatly
2    Bearpath    beat a couple of nice types at Gulfstream 3 back but balance of form suggests g2/g3 level at best
3    Strike A Deal    g2+??, snippets of form that suggest it is capable at this level, g2 dixie win 2 back at pimlico suggests 1l below true g1 level currently
4    Expansion    g1-, career best effort effort in the g1 manhattan last start, limited scope for more, gio ponti has its measure on that meeting but claims all the same
5    Mission Appro    g3 wins in 08 represent its best form, consistent vs weaker last few but making up the numbers here
6    Grand Couturie    expansion, interpetation and gio ponti all have it covered, 3-4l below the level required to be competitive here, outside place claims
7    Midnite Silver    g1?, lightly raced improver who looks to have the measure of expansion clearly on form refs out of last start win, scope for more, career peak last start, will appreciate this longer trip, serious claims vs gio ponti, +6lbs expansion
8    Gio Ponti    g1+?, sets the standard, won 4 turg g1's on end last season, showed was ready to produce that level again when a hard closing 2nd in the manhattan g1 last start, +9lbs expansion last start, scope for a bit more improvement again here 2nd up

1st Gio Ponti 2.10
2nd Midnite Silver 3.30
3rd Expansion

Can lay any outside the top 2, they have it between them.

Mission Approved looks the likely leader in a slowly run race. Gio Ponti likely to settle closer to the pace than Midnite Silver which is a big advantage under the pace scenario and should give Gio Ponti the edge required to hold sway when they both make their runs in deep stretch. Midnite Silver has more scope and loves this track (winner 4 from 7) but Gio Ponti has even a better record on this track and is the clear standard and one to beat.

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Tuesday UK Racing - Best On Breeding Bets

Pontefract 3.00 Knights Victory - lightly raced improver by Cape Cross out of the Diesis mare Diminuendo, 1/2 brother to G1 & G2 placed Storm Cat mare Calando.

Pontefract 3.30 Perfect Blossom - well bred type by One Cool Cat out of the Lycius mare Perfect Peach who is a half sister to 2 stakes performers including the Giant's Causeway Perfect For You who was placed in G3 company in the USA. This one carries a very similar nick both being by Storm Cat line sires. Impressive margins in last start win at Newcastle suggesting clearly above the level required to win here.

Pontefract 4.30 Red Cape - overly well bred by Cape Cross out of the Crystal Glitters mare Muirfield, well performed 7yo who got back to winning ways at Doncaster last start over 6f, on a repeat is a major hope here and past form says it is well up to winning at this level.

Pontefract 5.30 Nurai - well bred type by Danehill Dancer out of the Bluebird mare Lady High Heavens who herself was G3 & G2 placed over 7f & 6f, 2nd dam Blance Dubois by Nashwan is a half sister to 3 high class stakes performers being Indian Haven, Count Dubois and Place De L'Opera. Nurai hit a new career peak over this track and distance last start winning by 2l and form out of that race suggests it gets in well weighted here despite 6lb rise in official ratings since last win.

Wolverhampton 2.45 Exceedingly Good - well bred for speed by Exceed And Excel out of the Sri Pekan mare Ikan who is stakes performed herself and a half sister to Qadar & Valjarv (both stakes performed), 6f winner at Nottingham 2 starts ago, 2nd home has since won twice on end by good margins against stronger, strong form ref for this.

Wolverhampton 2.45 Downhill Skier - speed pedigree by Danehill Dancer out of The Minstrel mare Duchy Of Cornwall, 2nd up subject to considerable improvement and not disgraced when 2.7l 4th 3 back over 7f on this track, now down 5lb in the ratings since that run, at a very winnable level now.

Wolverhampton 3.15 Reality Show - lightly raced improving type by Cape Cross out of the Entrepreneur mare Really who was stakes placed herself, dam is also a half sister to the highly progressive Galileo mare Magen's Star, this one showed good merit 2 back when 2nd btn 5l at Haydock over 12f behind highly progressive type Mataaleb, well bred type finished 3rd and 4th and both have since franked the form vs stronger.

Wolverhampton 3.45 Togoaviking - well bred type by Cape Cross out of the Gone West mare The Strand who is a full sister to the G1 placed and G3 winner Gold Land, done nothing of note in 5 career starts to date but improvement expected with blinkers on 1st time.

Wolverhampton 4.15 Fourth Generation - overly well bred by Kris Kin out of the Grand Lodge mare Merewood Lodge, gets into a very weak affair here and sure to have come on for juvenile 2 start campaign which included being btn a short head last start by Medicinal Compund at Redcar over 8f, form refs back through the beaten brigade suggest it is well above the level required to win here.

Wolverhampton 5.15 Decree Absolute - good AW speed pedigree by Orientate out of the Naevus mare Midriff, 3rd up this term ready to hit new peak with blinkers on 1st time, at career low ratings of 63 which reads very well going on maiden win at Salisbury as a juvenile followed by close up 2nd to Jack My Boy at Pontefract, likely good value and warrants respect in this.

Wolverhampton 5.15 El Libertador - very well bred by Giant's Causeway out of the Kingmambo mare Istikbal, 2nd dam is the well related Sadler's Wells mare Tafrah who is a full sister to G1 Prix Du Cadran winner of '97 Chief Contender, comes into this on the back of 2 very sound efforts considering what it takes on here inc last start when 2nd to Bold Diva over this track and distance beaten a neck, good margins further back adds merit, serious claims in a race of this nature.

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Monday Australian Racing Previews For Wagga

Wagga R1 - Overly weak race for the class that may produce a good value result. 2 of major interest here and both can be backed for a result across the race. LEICA FORWARD is by hot young sire Charge Forward out of the Sir Tristram mare Leica Pretender who is the dam of 3 stakes winners laready being Nothin Leica Dane, Duelled and Thrilling Day. Having its 1st career start here on the back of winning a trial at Wangaratta by 2l over Madame De Lago (Encosta De Lago) with further good margins back through the field. Its looks to have the best credentials and is drawn well down in the 4 alley to secure a good trip. The other one of interest is ARTY'S NOVERRE who is 1st up from a spell and last prep having its 2nd career start finished a close up 2nd to Cockels'n'mussels in a very strong maiden over 1200m on this track. Cockels'n'mussels won again next start and the well btn 4th and 5th in the race both won soon after. Arty's Noverre n this basis has the best piece of exposed form. Those 2 should fight it out.

Betting - No1 Arty's Noverre (2 units win), No13 Leica Forward (1 unit win)

Wagga R2 - The very astute Brett Cavanough yard has the well bred Fastnet Rock 3yo RAB engaged here 1st up from a spell. He won on this track on debut last preperation and then went to Caulfield and finished 5th btn 2.1l behind The Handsome One in a strongish $70K Open 3yo race over 1200m. A repeat of that effort here in average Open 3yo $9K company will surely see him very hard to hold out. Drawn well in the 3 alley he should settle back in midfield or worse and only need luck in the tsretch run to finish hard over the top of them. Dangers look to be Worpali and Gentleman Jim but both of those are well below the potential level RAB can reach here.

Betting - No6 Rab (3.5 units win)

Wagga R4 - Another very weak maiden affair greets us here, the race has been robbed of one of its main chances in the form of Coliseo which is scratched. This really leaves the race at the mercy of GIVEMTHESLIP. The 3yo son of Royal Academy (out of a Thunder Gulch mare) comes into this having its 4th career start on the back of finishing 2nd at Goulburn last start over 1300mbtn 1.5l by the smart Savabeel 3yo filly from the Gai Waterhouse yard Avec Mon Ami. It sat outside the winner that day on the front end and battled on well to easily hold sway over the balance of the 14 horse field (stronger maiden) proving clearly best of the rest. It is well drawn here to get a fairly soft trip on the front end and should prove too good for this lot. Very hard to see it getting beat.

Betting - No4 Givemtheslip (5 units win)

Wagga R5 - This shapes as a good betting race with plenty of seen chances capable of winning in this grade. Barriers will play a vitally important part and some of the major hopes look likely to cop tough trips. We will back 2 horses for a result across the race here. On top we like the Nuclear Freeze 4yo LORENZINO who is 2nd up from a spell trying to make it 2 on end after winning at the Sapphire Coast last start by 1.3l, the form refs out of that race suggest it gets in well weighted here vs the likes of Ain't In Magic and a few of the other seen major chances. It is drawn well in the 3 alley and should get to the front or a prominent on pace position without working too hard early. Being fairly lightly raced it has further scope for improvement on that 1st up win. The other one of interest for us is the well weighted Dash For Cash mare FASTEST DASH who is drawn the 1 alley and has the services of leading hoop B Ward. It's last start 3rd reads well and if the pace is on then it will be the one getting home over the top of them at a good price. Back both for a result across the race.

Betting - No2 Lorenzino (2 units win), No13 Fastest Dash (1 unit win)

Wagga R6 - Shapes as a race with 2 major chances. The deceivingly well bred type DAUMET is the one we have on top here. This 3yo gelding carries the very successful Danehill / Dehere cross in its breeding being by Conatus out of the Dehere mare Chantilly Babe and comes into this on the back of a wide margin last start win when breaking its maiden at Narrandera over 1400m. That day it employed different riding tactics sitting up on the pace 3 wide with no cover then showed a sharp turn of foot widening the margin to the line when asked to score by 3.5l. Last prep it was only btn approx 2l on a few occasions in much stronger maidens at Kembla Grange on the provincial circuit. Despite being drawn wide here it should be able to cross without working too hard early and take up a good position on pace under an even tempo. It gets in very well weighted with only 51kg after the claim for smart young apprentice Darcy Matthews. The major danger looks to be Merci Grand but it has to give away 6kgs to Daumet which is a bit of a stretch and hard to see it overcoming despite the engagement of B Ward to steer.

Betting - No10 Daumet (2.5 units win)

Wagga R7 - Shapes as an overly weak race for the class and a perfect opportunity for last start big odds winner JARRACONI to make it 2 on end. The decently bred Bianconi 5yo annexed a 1400m C1 $9K race at Narrandera last start at odds of 25/1 by 1.3l. That day new riding tactics were employed which saw it dictate the pace on the front end and then hold sway in deep stretch defeating a decent quality field suggesting it gets in well weighted here with every hope with only 54kgs on its back and B Vale booked to secure another soft trip from the 3 alley.

Betting - No15 Jarraconi (1 unit win)

Wagga R9 - A large field to finish off the card at Wagga looks likely to present plenty of good value. We are backing 2 runners here for a result across the race. On top we like the Barbara Joseph trained and very well bred type JUNINHO who is by Giant's Causeway out of the 5 time winning Danehill mare Danesty who is a full sister to G1 Brisbane Cup winner Danestorm. Comes into this 3rd up from a spell and form so far both runs this prep has been below the expected level by 2-3l, capable of better and a repeat of maiden win last prep at Canberra over 1200m will make it very hard to beat here. Drawn perfectly in the 1 alley to secure one of the runs of the race tracking the leaders. The other one of interest from a value perspective is BIANCALAURA. The 4yo mare by Belong To Me is 1st up here and 1st up last prep was a wide margin winner at Canberra over 1000m in slow going. She is more than just a wet tracker and on a repeat of that win has serious claims here with 57.5kg on her back and B Ward booked to steer from the 6 alley. There will be enough depth in the prices of these 2 to back them both for a winning result. The other major danger is Stellesprit and it along with Youre On can be included in your exotics with the top 2 we have identified above.

Betting - No18 Juninho (2 units win), No9 Biancalaura (1.5 units win)

Biggest Certainty Bet - Wagga R4 No4 Givemtheslip
Best Value Bet - Wagga R6 No10 Daumet
All Up Value Place Bet - Wagga R5 No2 Lorenzino into Wagga R9 No18 Juninho
Best Exotic Bet - Wagga R9 Quinella - No18 with Nos1,8,9

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