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15 posts from June 2010

06/21/2010

Early Money For Tres Amigos Back On The All-Weather

A betting move worth making note of early in Monday betting action is the money that has come for the David Nicholls trained Tres Amigos in the 3.30 at Wolverhampton.

The 3yo Exceed And Excel colt switches back to the AW for the 1st time this campaign after failing miserably on turf in stronger races at its last 3 starts. At the end of its 2yo campaign last year it bolted up at Southwell over 7f by 4l and gets in very well weighted here on that performance. Considering the fact it made all on the front end that day the drop back from 7f to 6f here has to be of major benefit.

The stable has been agonizingly close over the last week in a lot of races with Striking Spirit, Joseph Henry and City Dancer all at good odds. Maybe this is the big priced winner that so desperately await them.

His form says he can win if he can refind his best back on the AW. Il Forno, Novay Essjay and Admin shape as the logical dangers to his chances.

He is easily available at 9.0 on the exchanges currently, good each way odds about a horse proven against much stronger.

For more value picks daily for UK, USA & AUS racing go to www.fromthehorsesmouth

Cape Quarter - Attractively Weighted

The 3.15 at Lingfield on Monday sees Aegean Shadow all the rage and deservedly so the way he has flashed big closing pars winning 2 from 2 this term but there is one that lurks down in the weights that has big scope for improvement and will go around an attractive quote that warrants specking. That horse is Cape Quarter.

Aegean Shadow trades at 1.95 & Cape Quarter trades at 15.0 early on Betfair so the obvious value lies with Cape Quarter.

Cape Quarter comes into this race 3rd up from a spell on the back of two average runs this time in but both of those runs were on turf but his best form was on the AW last season. On debut Cape Quarter flashed home with eye catching closing pars beaten 2.7l by Star Links over this track and distance as a 2yo in October 2008. Then he reappeared as a 3yo last season at Southwell and annexed a 7f 3yo 5K maiden scoring by 0.5l. That day he was very green when asked to extend but quickly put the issue beyond doubt suggesting big scope for further improvement.

He is very well bred by Elusive Quality out of the Sadler's Wells mare June Moon and is closely related to two German 2000 Guineas winners.

He gets in here carrying 19lbs less than Aegean Shadow which is a big weight pull under the circumstances. With that in mind the 15.0 or better that will be bet about this son of Elusive Quality looks rather attractive.

For more value picks daily for UK, USA & AUS racing go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

Bajan Tryst - Live Chance At Odds

The 2.45 at Lingfield on Monday may well be a good way to start off the punting week with a bit of value. A field of 10 runners greets the starters and good value exists around BAJAN TRYST who early on Betfair is trading at 15.0 and likely to drift to closer to 20.0 as the market thickens.

The 4yo son of Speightstown represents the astute yard of K Ryan who has a 21% strike rate on the AW this season landing 25 winners from 120 runners and the respected hoop Neil Callan also goes better than average on the AW with a winning strike rate of 21% landing 33 winners from 157 rides this season on the AW.

Bajan Tryst is 2nd up from a spell now and 4 starts ago looked the goods making all at Wolverhampton over 6f finding plenty at the business end to score by a widening 4l margin. The form out of that race through the btn brigade reads well for what he takes on here. He shapes as potentially well treated under the weights scenario being rated only 4lb higher than he was when recording that wide margin win.

The overall pace scenario looks a query but don't be surprised to see him stalk over this sharp 5f trip or if gate speed allows he may cross and try to make all again. Bottom line is that the drop back to 5f should not hinder his chances.

Captain Carey, Steelcut and Doric Lady look the major dangers, the rest merely make up the numbers.

For more value picks daily for UK, USA & AUS racing go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

06/08/2010

Australian Racing Previews for Tuesday 8 June 2010

Below are our previews for a lot of the races later on in the day for Australian horse racing on Sunday 6 June 2010. The major chances are highlighted in each race along with value prices for each of them.

For more FREE racing picks daily go www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

08/06/2010 - Hamilton R7 to R10 Previews

Race 7

(Open race)

1: Last Dancer

Price: $5.4

Comment

Rarely far from the money in this grade. Beaten leas than 2l in $22.5k company on the heavy 2runs back. That form reads well and must be rated highly here.

2: Mister Bee Tee

Price: $6.4

Comment

Not much going right of late but form on the heavy tracks is to good to dismiss. Drop back to 1600m suits and all 3 career wins have come on the heavy. Conditions will suit here and with even luck can figure.

3: Bombay Flyer

Price: $6.6

Comment

Back to best last start when narrowly beaten over the 1400m. Best runs have been on rain effected tracks which is a plus. Overall form good enough to have him highly competitive here.

4: Schabacle

Price: $10.5

Comment

Lightly raced type from the Darren Weir yard. Races well this grade and with scope is expected to be around the mark again.

Race 8

(Happy to work around the top 4 here and play any value)

1: Outback Johnny

Price: $4.5

Comment

No luck first up in stronger grade. Races very well second up and record on heavy tracks reads 10 starts for 4 wins and 5 placings.

2: Miss Moneyeater

Price: $4.7

Comment

Forgive run last start in much tougher grade. Super win first up two runs back when covered ground yet won easy. Handles all conditions and will prove hard to beat again.

3: Swanz

Price: $5.6

Comment

No luck last start in slightly weaker grade. Drawn to get the gun run again here and both career wins have come on the heavy. One of the major hopes.

4: Green Rises

Price: $7.7

Comment

Hit the line super last start after being slow away. Not much luck the start prior when caught wide. Strung two good wins together prior and that form reads well for this. Not overly convinced will produce best on the heavy but has won on it before. Take on trust.

5: Tikona

Price: $8.2

Comment

Little luck last two starts. Good win on the slow three back has him competitive here.

Race 9

1: Sigidas

Price: $3.2

Comment

Sent for a 33 day freshen since struggled in tough race over the Warrnambool carnival. Races best when fresh and has performed well on the heavy.

2: Irish High King

Price: $4.8

Comment

Resumes. Races well fresh and handles the sting out of the ground. Likely to be suited over further but with a likely solid tempo will get his chance to finish over the top of them if anywhere near right fresh.

3: Rammutt

Price: $6.8

Comment

Nice win last start in a return to form. If gets through the going is capable of back to back wins in this grade.

4: Port Warden

Price: $6.8

Comment

Consistent type who strikes favourite heavy track here. Has scope and looks suited against this opposition.

Race 10

1: Count Royal

Price: $1.8

Comment

Good at all 3 runs this prep and super two runs back on the heavy when up in grade. Suited this class, loves the wet, 2kg claim and drawn well. Hard to beat.

2: Our Shanagolden

Price: $6.4

Comment

Worked home ok last start in same grade. Rise in trip suits and proven in the wet. 3kg claim also helps.

3: Symbolero

Price: $8.7

Comment

Led last start when pressured on the pace yet only beaten 1.6 lengths in $15k race at Mt Gambier. Drawn wide but can lead here over 1600m in a race with no pace. A repeat of last start will see her in this for a long way.

4: Princess Delta

Price: $11

Comment

Drops in grade after struggling last couple after good maiden win three runs back. Not convinced on heavy but goes in the mix in a race that lacks depth.

08/06/2010 - Albury R5 to R8 Previews

Race 5

1: Lycra Lass

Price: $4

Comment

Drops in grade after being far from disgraced in $70k race at Rosehill. Suited back in grade and on best form will go very close.

2: Billybougg

Price: $4

Comment

Luckless last start after big run first up in good form race. Gets back from the wide gate but will be charging home with even luck.

3: Cupro Nickel

Price: $7

Comment

Forget last start when didn’t handle the heavy. Luckless before that after impressive 2.8 length maiden win. Overall form ok and can bounce back to best here.

4: Cosmic Fury

Price: $11

Comment

Goes forward in a race void of speed. Gets chance to produce best which is good enough to give this a shake.

5: Mr Ocean

Price: $11

Comment

Failed to flatter at last couple over longer trips. Suited back to 1600m and drawn to get a good run from gate 6. 2kg claim a bonus and drop in grade a plus.

Race 6

1: Plan To Prosper

Price: $5.5

Comment

Good at 3 runs back from a lengthy lay off. Ready to show best here over more suitable trip. Can lead from wide gate without too much trouble. If left alone will prove very hard to catch.

2: Rustie Bugles

Price: $6.3

Comment

Last couple not flash on paper but will appreciate being back in this grade. Good 3 back when hit the line strong in $7k race over 1170m. 1400m suits and back in this grade is ready to show best.

3: Street By Street

Price: $7.7

Comment

Big run last start when back and wide yet hit the line super in similar grade. Drawn wide an obvious concern but with even luck and a repeat of last start can figure.

4: Armani Black

Price: $8.3

Comment

Consistent in tougher Vic provincial grade. Suited this grade and 3kg claim a real bonus. Drawn to get the gun run and can win.



Race 7

1: Stellesprit

Price: $5.4

Comment

Peaks now after 2 runs this time in. No luck last start so forgive. Suited back to 1000m and drops in grade.

2: My Mate Phil

Price: $6.7

Comment

Nice win last start this class and distance. Has scope and will only need to hold that form to give this a shake.

3: Russwillcrow

Price: $7

Comment

Resumes. Won 2 from 2 career starts and strikes another winnable race here first up. If anywhere near right can win.

4: Tarrabandra

Price: $7.9

Comment

Career best performance last start when circled field and pulled away late. That looks good enough for this and gets chance to go back to back.

Race 8

1: Kelsea Patrika

Price: $3.8

Comment

Consistent type who ran a super race 4 back at Moonee Valley when held up late in straight. Hit line strong last start in similar to run 2nd and with even luck here can go one better.

2: Look At The Rose

Price: $4.5

Price: Another runner who was far from disgraced 4 runs back at Moonee Valley when caught wide. No luck last start when wide. Suited this grade, major player.

3: Harefield Road

Price: $8

Comment

Impressive 3.5l win last start in similar. Will have to overcome a wide gate but is more than capable In this grade.

4: Weekend Cash

Price: $11

Comment

Resumes. Is a winner first up and has some good form in much stronger grades than this. Comes to hand quickly and if anywhere near right first up can win. Gate 2 also a plus.

06/06/2010

Australian Racing Previews for Sunday 6 June 2010

Below are our previews for a lot of the races later on in the day for Australian horse racing on Sunday 6 June 2010. The major chances are highlighted in each race along with value prices for each of them.

For more FREE racing picks daily go www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au

06/06/2010 - Ballarat R5 to R8 Previews

Race 5

1: Bankers Daughter

Price: $4

Comment

No luck two runs this time in and doesn’t take on anything tougher here. Proven on the Slow is a plus and only win has come over the 1400m. Kept fresh, can win.

2: Carnegie Dan

Price: $5.9

Comment

Got a long way back first up in tougher grade and never figured. Back in class suits and any further rain will be a bonus, strips fitter and is a winner 2nd up.

3: Dear Prudence

Price $6.4

Comment

Top effort first up when had little luck over 1200m. Rise in trip suits, strips fitter and handles the wet. Major player.

4: Clang and Bang

Price: $7

Comment

Recent maiden winner this track and trip and form suggests can handle the class rise comfortably. Trained on track for Darren Weir a plus and if handles the going can figure in the finish.

Race 6

1: Dom Perion

Price: $3.1

Comment

Class runner of the field who drops in grade for her first up assignment. If gets through the going her class should see her in this for a long way.

2: El Martini

Price: $6.4

Comment

Resumes. Has a very good fresh record and form on the wet tracks is also good. Down in grade suits and must be included.

3: Glasovit

Price: $8.5

Comment

Two runs this time in have been super on the heavy. Goes forward from gate 2 and this is slightly weaker on recent form.

4: Golden Image

Price: $10.2

Comment

Winner on the heavy last start and should only improve off that effort. This tougher but can figure.

Race 7

1: Oceans Seven

Price: $5.4

Comment

Three runs this time in good and should get a gun run from gate 2. Bred to get through going and looks a major player on current form.


2: Bussan Boy

Price: $5.5

Hit line strong last start in ok company. Kept fresh for this is a plus and gets through the going.

3: No Brainer

Price: $5.5

Comment

Resumes. Fresh record good and best runs have been on the heavy. Has scope and if anywhere near right first up will go close.

4: Divine Force

Price: $6.7

Comment

Consistent type who will appreciate the rise to 1100m. Best runs has come on a heavy track and should enjoy a good run from gate 5.

Race 8

(Open race many hopes, happy to play if value about our top 4)

1: Rubinacci

Price: $6.5

Comment

Easy win last start in same grade over same trip. Gets back from wide gate and proven on the wet. Can win again.

2: Banri Maeve

Price: $8.5

Comment

In top form and well supported last start when hit line super this track and trip to run 2nd. Handles the going and can go one better here.

3: Darrange

Price: $10.7

Comment

Been paced last couple and this no tougher than recent racing. Drawn wide but not sure how track will play after heavy rain. Gets though going, include.

4: Cougat King

Price: $10.9

Comment

Top effort in midweek grade to be only beaten 2 lengths in the heavy conditions. Drops in grade here and from gate 1 will get the run of the race.

06/06/2010 - Sale R5 to R7 Previews

Race 5

1: Jagger Crow

Price: $2.5

Comment

Scratched Friday for this which is a good lead. Winner on heavy and winner first up. Looks the one if right.

2: Come On Bill

Price: $3.4

Comment

Placed last couple and this no tougher. Form-lines strong and gets the gun run from gate 3.

3: Roar Speed

Price: $7.8

Comment

Big winner last start when got the favours on the speed. Kept fresh a plus and gets through the going. Gets a good run again from gate 4.

4: Given Sunday

Price: $13.7

Comment

Racing well in Tassie but suspect he might be under the odds here. Yet to run on slow.

Race 6

1: No Dispute

Price: $2.6

Comment

Big winner last start on the slow in weaker. Lightly raced with scope to improve and might just be too good for this lot.

2: Encosta Rica

Price: $5.6

Comment

Strong 2nd last start over 1770m. Rise in trip a plus here and gets through the going, looks a major player.

3: Our Tycoon

Price: $6.2

Comment

Strong placing in similar last start. Best runs come on the heavy so any further rain a plus, distance suits.

4: Prinson

Price: $10.1

Comment

Three consecutive placings look good for this. Only the one win from 18 but this lacks depth and proven on the wet.



Race 7

1: Court Ya

Price: $3.5

Comment

At peak now after 3 runs in. Rise in trip suits and was a big maiden winner on the heavy, ready now!


2: Pepin Hoaks

Price: $4.7

Comment

Still a maiden but form suggests he is more than capable in this grade. Best runs are in the wet and rise in trip looks a plus.

3: Quizzicle Mis

Price: $5

Comment

Consistent type with the form to suggest she is nearing a win. This race not strong and can down in the weights.

4: Gavio

Price: $10

Comment

Maiden winner on the heavy last start. Gets chance to go on with it here

5: Lone Heart

Price: $10

Comment

Lightly raced with scope to improve. Form reads well and if handles jumping from 1300 – 1700m can figure.

06/06/2010 - Murwillumbah R5 to R8 Previews

Race 5

(Very ugly race, not sure on value and not sure if I would want to get involved in this)

1: Cailyns Legend

Price: $3.9

Comment

Narrow 2nd second up which looks good for this. Drawn to get the gun run, doubt wants any wetter than slow.

2: Tycoon Ken

Price: $4.5

Comment

Strong win two back on the heavy looks strong for this. Current form good and looks a major player.

3: Fidakat

Price: $4.9

Comment

Strips fitter for first up win in weaker. Has scope and must be included in this weak event.

4: Dowden

Price: $11.3

Comment

Consistent type who is rarely far from the cash in this grade. Get good run from good gate

5: Reassuring

Price: $11.3

Comment

Close 2nd last start looks good enough for this. Can figure at odds.

Race 6

1: Willyclang

Price: $2

Comment

Kept fresh for this and looks clearly the class runner of the field. Handles all conditions and looks hard to beat.

2: Prince Lionheart

Price: $4.1

Comment

Nice win last start. A repeat of that has him right in the mix.

3: Mohawk

Price: $7.8

Comment

Consistent type who looks to have struck a winnable race.

4: Jagoe Road

Price: $13.9

Comment

Won two on end at the end of last prep. Likely to need further but has a class edge on some of these. Knockout chance at odds.

Race 7

1: Red Amigo

Price: $3.5

Comment

Nice win two back which looks strong for this. No luck last start and a winner on the slow. Has scope, looks hard to beat.

2: Pea Eye Cee

Price: $6

Comment

Handy type who is rarely far from the money. Get the run from gate 3 and will be in this for a long way.

3: Warrior Within

Price: $7.5

Comment

Ok in Group 3 company last start as a $100 chance. Back to a more suitable grade and on best form can figure.

4: Yass River

Price: $9.8

Comment

Nice type who is rarely far from the cash in this company. Must be included.

Race 8

( Top three have cleared out in the market, happy to play any value.)

1: Bay City Kitty

Price: $3.3

Comment

Drops in grade on current racing and should get the run of the race from gate 3. Hard to beat.

2: Renovations

Price: $5.3

Comment

Suited back to the 1400m and handles all conditions.

3: Baby Rock

Price: $6

Comment

Consistent without winning. Suited in this company.

06/06/2010 - Wellington R6 to R8 Previews

Race 6

(Another ugly BM50 race, not overly keen.)

1: Corso Vannucci

Price: $4

Comment

Winner with massive weight last start in slightly weaker. This not overly strong and can win again.

2: Hibah

Price: $7.2

Comment

Consistent without winning. Gets chance in this company

3: Danasosa

Price: $7.6

Comment

Ran on well last start over 1500m. Rise in trip suits and looks well placed.

4: Poker Pro

Price: $7.7

Comment

Forgive last start. Won 2 of 3 prior. Can figure.

Race 7

(Top 3 have cleared out in the prices, keen to play any value)

1: Tidy Package

Price: $3.1

Comment

Strong winner last start in similar. Current form good and can win again against this lot.

2: Miss Reed

Price: $4

Comment

Big winner last start after dropping in grade. This not strong and is another who can win again.

3: Dane’s Jewel

Price: $5.7

Comment

Drops back to a more suitable grade and looks one of the major hopes. Must include.

Race 8

1: Ready On Sunday

Price: $2.8

Comment

Resumes. Lightly raced with scope to improve. Big drop in class here and if anywhere near right first up looks very hard to beat.

2: Bellshasar

Price: $4.8

Comment

Top effort first up when a narrow 2nd. A repeat of that has him right in the mix.

3: French Silk

Price: $7.7

Comment

Strong win first up. Now won 3 from 5 career starts. Has scope and can win again.


4: Magic Country

Price: $10.4

Comment

Won 2 of past 3 and the form reads ok for this. Rise in trip suits and can go back to back against this opposition.

06/06/2010 - Sunshine Coast R7 to R8 Previews

Race 7

(Top 3 have cleared out, happy to play any value)

1: Masai Pride

Price: $3.9

Comment

Class runner of the field who will appreciate being back on top of the ground. Current form looks good enough for this and will go very close.

2: Eire Of Magic

Price: $3.9

Comment

Will strip fitter for first up effort and will appreciate the rise in trip. Big drop in grade and on best form will be hard to beat.

3: Adnocon

Price: $4

Comment

Top win first up in much tougher company. Winner second up and handles all conditions.

Race 8

(Top 5 cleared out in the prices, happy to get involved here)

1: Sconandtink

Price: $3.2

Comment

In top form this prep and is coming off a good win in similar grade last start. Still on the improve and can make it back to back here.

2: Diago

Price: $4.6

Comment

2 wins from 5 career starts and hit the line strong over 1400m last start. Rise in trip suits and will give this an almighty shake.

3: Charter Boat

Price: $5.2

Comment

Placed last 3 in similar company and looks well placed to go close again.

4: Banana Kick

Price: $9.8

Comment

Run down late last in similar grade. Drop back to 1600m might help and if gets a soft lead might prove hard to catch.

5: Comahni

Price: $10.9

Comment

Handy winner last start and has now won 2 from 5 career starts. Can only improve.