Irish Derby Card Previews - Curragh (IRE) Sunday 27 June 2010

Curragh 5.10 (Irish Derby G1) - A total of 4 runners in the betting here under the 7/1 mark and all of them have to be respected on varying form lines. It is hard to get overly confident about anything but we have always had a very big opinion of Cape Blanco which was confirmed the way it destroyed Workforce at York in the G2 Dante Stakes with Workforce then winning the Epsom Derby so easily. Cape Blanco then failed to flatter in the French Derby beaten 8.7l by Lope De Vega who could well be the best 3yo in Europe currently. Murtagh stays on Cape Blanco for this assignment which is the vote of confidence we need to make him the top elect. At 3.80 on Betfair currently he is a bit short for our liking but if the real Cape Blanco shows up he will give this an almighty shake. No great confidence in this race. Interesting side note for Australian punters, the 2nd market favourite in this race is Monterosso, he is by Dubawi out of the former G1 winning Australian mare Porto Roca who can be remembered for winning the G1 Coolmore Classic at Rosehill in 2001.

Curragh 2.15 - Shapes as a very good value betting race and overall confidence is high for a winning result. We will back 2 here for a result across the race firstly. The clear cut top elect for us is the lightly raced Shamardal colt Arctic who comes into this having only its 5th career start, winner 3 from 4 last season as juvenile before finishing 5th of 5 in the Middle Park stakes, winner 2 from 2 over this track and distance albeit in heavy going both times by wide margins, 2nd of those was the G3 Round Tower Stakes over Air Chief Marshal, if he handles the good to firm ground he will donkey lick this field. The best of the rest is the Exceed And Excel filly Piccadilly Filly who 1st up for this season last start was nosed out by Planet Five (Storm Cat) at G2 level in France with Marchand D'Or back in 3rd, she has further scope for improvement and that is the best form reference the rest of these possess. Back both Arctic (7.40 on Betfair) and Piccadilly Filly (10.0 on Betfair) for a result across the race.

Curragh 3.15 - Five of the total eight runners are well in the market making it 4/1 the field basically for the live chances on Betfair. Jeremy Noseda ships over with Ryan Moore booked to ride the Footstepsinthesand raider Formosina who couldn't have been more impressive last start breaking its maiden by 7l at Doncaster over 6f. One form line out of that race through 4th home being Alfraamsey back to Klammer rates Formosina only 2l behind Strong Suit & Elzaam. Also remembering Moore rode the likely favorite here Samuel Morse at Ascot when it was beaten 4.7l by Strong Suit one can suggest he has a good idea of what is required to nail this race, astute connections and an exposed form reference as noted above makes us lean towards Formosina on top here. It currently trades at 5.2 on Betfair and may even drift to 5.5 with some luck.

Curragh 3.50 - Massive field of 28 runners engaged here but only one of them possesses form of the highest order being G1 sprint form and that is Air Chief Marshal who finished a close up 2nd to Alfred Nobel in last seasons G1 Phoenix Stakes, the form out of that race has actually worked out quiet well but Air Chief Marshal since then has been below par including 2 runs this season, but he represents the Aiden O'Brien yard who has publicly said his stable is only starting to come right now as proven at Ascot a few weeks ago (10 winners from last 31 starters). If he is another of the stables runners to now hit their expected heights he will shake this at a good double figure quote. Currently trading at 14.0 on Betfair it warrants nibbling at.

Curragh 4.30 - Another race here that looks likely to go the way of the Aiden O'Brien yard via the very well bred Giant's Causeway 3yo colt Emperor Claudius who is out of the former top class Kingmambo race mare Virginia Waters. He comes into this on the back of winning 2 from 2 this season merely confirming the promise he showed as a juvenile last season when finishing 2nd to Big Audio over 7f at Ascot in the Listed Chesham Stakes. That renewal of the Chesham Stakes was well above par with top class pair Beethoven 4th and Shakespearean 5th. Emperor Claudius came from well off the pace that day with massive closing pars hitting the line strongly suggesting the step to 8f here will totally suit (he should have won that race). 1st up this prep he made all on the front end over 7f proving he is very adaptable and is equally effective leading or coming from off the pace. Emperor Claudius trades at 3.30 on Betfair and represents the strongest confidence bet of all on the Curragh card so far.

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Two Horse War - Newbury 6.50

The 2yo Class 4 fillies race at Newbury (6.50) on Tuesday looks a slightly below par race for the class on exposed form and breeding and should not take much winning. Power house 2yo yard of Richard Hannon has 2 engaged and it is one of those, Looksmart who shapes as the best chance on exposed race form but one other with a booking of Jamie Spencer from the Vaughan yard having its 1st start also makes good appeal.

Looksmart can be forgiven for its last start effort when btn 7.7l by Margot Did, if we go back to its debut run when 3rd btn 2.2l by Hortensia we can make a major case for its chances here. With scope for improvement off that run it shapes as the major player here and is currently good value at 6.20 on Betfair.

As stated the other one worth backing here for a result across the race is the Vaughan trained Ransom Request. The booking of Jamie Spencer is a good lead on this 2yo Red Ransom filly as he is 3 from 11 for this yard and is somewhat of a go to rider for that yard. She is bred to be above average by Red Ransom out of the Priolo mare Shersha who is a G3 placed performer who carried a career high rating of 103. This is only her 2nd foal to race so there is plenty of scope for her to produce one with ability especially when sent to a sire such as Red Ransom who is capable of getting top class 2yos. Admittedly the Vaughan yard is overly quiet at present but the booking of Spencer is the major lead to a sparked performance here. Currently available at 17.0 on Betfair she represents good value.

So back both Looksmart and Ransom Request for a result across the race.

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Exceedingly Good Bet In The 5.15 At Beverley

One of the better value bets of the day shows up in the 5.15 at Beverley in the form of Exceedingly Good. The 4yo Exceed And Excel filly only rises 4lbs in the handicap for its last start 1l win at Nottingham over 6f which suggests it has been well treated by the handicapper considering what it takes on here.

That day over the longer 6f trip it was on pace and did itself no favours by pulling hard during the run but still found plenty to win. The form out of that race reads well now through Cornus who finished 2nd and has since come out and won again in 5K C4 company at Thirsk and the start prior was only btn 2l at Goodwood in 4K C4 company. 4th home that day Sea Crest btn 3.2l by Exceedingly Good was btn smaller margins at its 3 prior starts against similar behind Cornus, Verinco and Tangerine Weed adding further depth to the win.

Dropping back to sharper 5f trip is another factor that enhances the chance of Exceedingly Good here as it will surely see out the trip strongly from a favourable on pace racing position.

She is overly well bred carrying the proven Danehill X Red Ransom nick, her dam is by Sri Pekan and is stakes performed and is a half sister to 2 other handy black type sprinters in the form of Qadar and Valjarv, infact 7 of her 9 half relations are winners on the track. Exceedingly Good is fairly lightly raced having only faced the starter 12 times and may even have minor scope for further improvement but she only needs to hold the form of that last start win to prove hard to hold out here and at 10.00 on Betfair currently she represents extremely good value vs the likes of market dominating favorite Azygous (currently 4.60). Back Exceedingly Good with good confidence for a winning result. She will surely firm in price closer to post time.

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Multahab "Nailed On" To Win Again

The 5.00 at Brighton on Tuesday shapes as a perfect opportunity for Multahab to make it 2 wins on end on the back of scoring last start over this track and distance.

Multahab has now won 6 times at Brighton on the back of his success last Monday week and despite being an 11yo he is racing in a rich vein of form currently (close up 2nd to Ajjaadd 2 back). The form references back through Spic 'N' Span 2nd and Bookiesindexs Boy 3rd suggest he should easily be able to defy the 6lb rise in the ratings and account for another weak field here. Also taking into account the 5lb claim for apprentice hoop Toby Atkinson who only has a "sit & steer" job to worry about here on this easy on pace ride and we have what we feel is one of the bigger certainties of the day to bet on.

Currently on Betfair Multahab trades at 2.70 and qwe have him assessed as a 2.20 chance in this field, so good overs are available compared to his true chance. Bet with big confidence on what is one of the banker bets of the day.

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Respect For Rio Royale

One of our analysts is really keen on the chances of Rio Royale going a few placings better than his last start 3rd at Goodwood behind Averoo in the 4.30 at Brighton on Tuesday. Trading at 8.60 on the exchanges with that in mind it does shape as good punting value.

That form from Goodwood has since been franked to a major degree with the race winner Averoo making it 2 on end next start in stronfer 7K C4 company at York in a big 19 horse field and 2 starts earlier also won at Thirsk against stronger. 2nd home Peopleton Brook the start prior was only btn 0.7l by Imprimis Tagula at Newmarket adding good depth. 5th home Spiritual Art was only btn 1.7l by Fleeting Echo at Goodwood over the extended 7f the next start. 6th home Pragmatist was only btn 0.5l by Divinsky at Salisbury the start prior. 7th home Highland Harvest finished 2nd the start prior and after to Poppannan and then Choreography. 8th home Wee Chief was only btn 1.7l by Divinsky and 1.7l by Secret Witness at its 2 prior starts. Every single form line around Rio Royale coming out of that race suggests it is well up to the level required to annex this weak 6f 2K C6 Handicap in the 4.30 at Brighton.

From a form perspective it shapes as one of the better quality confidence vs value chances of the day. The 89.60 on offer on Betfair is good value and we feel that price will shorten closer to post time so take it now while it lasts. Realistically it should be 5.50 or 6.00 in this field.

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Knowledgeable "Thrown In" At The Weights

The 4.00 at Brighton on Tuesday shapes as a very weak race that won't take much winning and it is likely that one with unseen scope for improvement to the naked eye will be the way to play this race.

One horse that fits the bill under that scenario is the 3yo filly Knowledgeable which is deceivingly well bred for this 8f test by Reset (Zabeel) out of the Danehill Dancer mare Belle's Edge. To NH pundits this breeding is likely to be somewhat under-estimated due to the fact that Reset did all of his racing in Australia. He was a top class race horse who was undefeated winning the G1 Australian Guineas defeating Starcraft and then franked that form winning the G1 Futurity Stakes defeating older horses as a 3yo. Of further interesting note is the fact that the Zabeel X Danehill nick has worked an absolute treat in the SH hemisphere producing numerous top class gallopers and this season Reset has produced a top class galloper in the form of Set For Fame who finished 2nd in the Australian Guineas to Rock Classic in March.

Knowledgeable comes into this race having its mere 4th career start on the back of finishing 4th btn 5.2l at Leicester over 7f at the end of its juvenile campaign in 2009, that day it was badly hampered at the start and should have finished closer to the winner. The booking of smart hoop David Probert adds confidence to suggest it may be ready for this 1st up tilt. The mile trip suits and it gets in superbly weighted only being asked to carry 8'2" vs tried and tested low class gallopers with no upside.

Currently on offer at 15.0 on the exchanges represents good value and it should be backed with a minor degree of confidence.

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Forte Dei Marmi Form Preferred In 3.15 At Beverley

Two runners dominate the early betting markets in the 3.15 at Beverley on Tuesday being Danehillsundance and Fujin Dancer. The early market favorite is Danehillsundance trading at 3.40 on Betfair with Fujin Dancer slightly wider in the market at 4.40. Both have the required form references to win this race but the Fujin Dancer looks slightly better suited here as a betting prospect for numerous reasons.

Firstly Fujin Dancer's last start 5l 4th to Forte Dei Marmi in the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar was full of merit considering it struck considerable interference when making strong headway 1f out along the inside, it clearly should have finished closer to the winner who we already have a good opinion of being one of our blackbook horses who has proven that depth of opinion winning the Zetland Gold Cup after being blackbooked off previous runs.

Amy Ryan claiming 5lbs on Fujin Dancer also sees it get in well weighted vs Danehillsundance who is asked to carry 6lbs more after the claim for Ryan, a decisive factor in our line of thinking.

The value aspect of Fujin Dancer also being a full point better value on the exchanges over Danehillsundance is also good news for punters. We expect that gap to tighten pricewise closer to post time so it is advised to take the 4.40 on offer while it exists as we feel it will firm closer to 4.0 or slightly shorter come post time.

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Favorites Vulnerable - Brighton 3.00

The 7f Class 5 handicap at Brighton (3.00) on Tuesday looks a good betting race with plenty of value to be had by avoiding the top public chances in the market.

The lightly raced Daggers Dawn 4yo filly DASHING BEAUTY last start broke its maiden at its 3rd career start over 6f at Yarmouth racing alone up the stand side rail to score by 1.2l and the general line of public thinking suggests it was fluked and flattered that day but it has further scope for improvement here having its 4th career start and will appreciate the step up to 7f. On breeding it can also be suggested the step up in distance will suit. As it is likely to trade around 20.0 on the exchanges the price must be nibbled at from a pure value perspective.

The other one that has realistic chances at odds is the Dubawi 3yo filly ZUBOVA who is only having its 2nd start this season and can be forgiven for its last start failure at Kempton on the AW. Previously trained by Richard Hannon as a juvenile last season she showed above average form compared to what she takes on here including her effort at Kempton 5 starts ago over 6f when only beaten a head into 2nd by Key Light. The form out of that race along with other form refs she has produced suggests she is well up to winning a race of this quality. She is out of a Barathea mare so the 7f trip should pose no problems. Likely to trade around 18.0 on the exchanges warrants respect and she should also be backed to roll the market favorites.

So back both DASHING BEAUTY & ZUBOVA here both to win for a result across the race.

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Kames Park Suited By Class Drop

The 2.45 at Beverley on Tuesday looks a perfect opportunity for the 8yo Desert Sun gelding Kames Park to get back into the winners enclosure.

He comes into this race in good form considering the big drop in class it takes on recent efforts where repeats of any 3 of his last 4 runs would see him win this event uncontested. 4 back he was beaten only 3.5l by Trip The Light over 12f at York then he went to Doncaster and was only beaten 1.5l by Jawaab over the same trip before last start producing a similar effort when only 3l off Hells Angel over 12f at Thirsk.

7 starts ago he proved this track and distance suits when scoring by 2.2l defeating Southern Regent off the same mark as he carries into this race.

Currently trading at 2.3 on the exchanges represents good value. There is every chance that price will drift closer to 2.5 as punters look for things to beat at better odds but bottom line is he only needs to hold his current form to win here.

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Last Start Wide Margin Winner Dane Cottage Seeks A Double

One of the lowest quality fields anywhere on Monday has to be that of the 4.15 at Lingfield. This race is full of exposed types that have all had their fair chance of reaching the limelight except for one of them being the lightly raced wide margin last start winner Dane Cottage who seeks to make it 2 wins on end here.

The 3yo Beat Hollow filly last start looked highly impressive last start beating up on a 3yo seller field at Leicester scoring by a widening 11l when different riding tactics were employed by connections. The bare form through the winning margin suggests she improved on her previous form in leaps and bounds and that is backed up by the time she ran (only 0.43s below standard). Since t5hen she has been raised 6lbs in the handicap but that is offset here by the 7lb claim for Adam Beschizza who this season has a 12% strike rate in turf races.

Dane Cottage being lightly raced should hold that new level now and easily account for her foes here in what as earlier stated in realistically a weak race. Orsett Lad & Mr Maximus look the only 2 capable of troubling her but they both need to produce career best efforts to do so.

Dane Cottage should make it 2 wins on end here and at the 3.20 being bet on the exchanges currently represents good value. We have her marked up as a 2.50 chance in this field.

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