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« March 2010 | Main | May 2010 »
The '2000 Guineas' for 2010 is run at Newmarket in 1 May. The top elect in betting St Nicholas Abbey looks the winner but is currently unders compared to its true value chance on the exchanges, value lies elsewhere. Below is our famed Advantage Ratings for the race.
For more high quality FREE racing coverage from Australia, The USA and UK go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au
The 2010 Kentucky Oaks is run at Churchill Downs in 30 April. We have found a 30/1 shot in the form of Jody Slew along with It's Tea Time at 15/1 as the top 2 chances. Below is our famed Advantage Ratings for the race.
For more high quality FREE racing coverage from Australia, The USA and UK go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au
The 2010 Kentucky Derby is run at Churchill Downs in 1 May. We have found a 30/1 shot in the form of Stately Victor along with the 2nd elect in betting being Sidney's Candy as the top 2 chancesw. Below is our famed Advantage Ratings for the race.
For more high quality FREE racing coverage from Australia, The USA and UK go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au
Champagne Stakes Offers Up Good Value
The 3rd leg of the 2yo triple crown takes place on Saturday being the G1 Champagne Stakes over 1600m and it offers up very good value for punters.
Our market assessment is listed to the left (in the graphic) and we have outlined 6 chances in the race with good value to be had about 5 of them for a result across the race.
The major contender looks to be the well related Redoute's Choice colt Benetau who missed the 2nd leg of the triple crown in preference for this race after finishing a luckless 5th in the Golden Slipper. He was also unlucky in the Blue Diamond when 3rd to Star Witness after getting shuffled back midrace then forced very wide on the turn before flashing good closing pars close home. The overall depth of this field is clearly below G1 quality and he looks suited to the 1600m trip the way he has been finishing his races off. We have him top rated as a 4.74 chance, currently slightly better odds is on offer with Betfair of 5.20.
Sasa is the 2nd elect and one of 4 Encosta De Lago line horses in our top 6 rated runners, she looked well above average breaking her maiden 2 starts ago at Hawkesbury over 1300m by 5.8l in a race where the 2nd and 3rd horses home have since come out and franked the form winning in their next 2 starts. She is unders currently as we have her assessed as a 5.68 chance and is offered up at only 5.40 on Betfair.
The 3rd elect is Chula Vista who looked very impressive winning by 3.5l on debut at Canterbury 2 starts ago, she has major scope for further improvement. Assessed as a 9.47 chance by our analysts she offers up sensational value at 41.00 with bookmakers currently.
Yosei who won the G1 Sires' Produce last start is the 4th elect assessed at 10.94, currently slightly better odds is offered about her chances at 12.00 on Betfair currently.
The 5th elect in our assessment is another Encosta De Lago youngster in the form of Fashion, she is out of the Blue Diamond winner True Jewels and is still a maiden but is likely to produce a new career peak here after making strong headway to finish 2nd to Skilled last start producing the best closing pars that day on an unsuitable wet track. We have here assessed an an 11.84 chance is currently offered up at 20.00 on Betfair, good overs.
The blowout horse and 6th elect the warrants specking is another Encosta De Lago youngster in the form of Bombay, this one is superbly related on the female side of her family being out of the Danehill mare Sarasota who is a full sister to the hottest young sire in the country in the form of Fastnet Rock, both are from the impressive stakes winning mare and producer by Royal Academy Picadilly Circus, very much an emerging female line in the Australian Stud book, Bombay is 2nd up here and totally suited to the 1600m trip the way she finished off behind Miss Shiraz last start but the run to take note of is her win last prep over 1100m at Canterbury defeating Extremis, she hit the line very hard that day in a leader dominated affair where Cuddles For Nara finished 3rd btn 2.8l and then was only btn 4.2l by Star Witness next start, a very good form ref for this considering the big scope Bombay has trying 1600m for the 1st time. We have her assessed as a 14.21 chance and she is currently available at better than 100/1 on Betfair and at 100/1 with bookmakers, massive overs.
Follow our win betting advice as per the graphic to the top of this story. Good value is to be had with a definite collect likely by following it.
For place punters have something on Chula Vista and Bombay who are both very big overs.
Exotic players should use these 6 runners boxed for the First 4 and Trifecta punters should do the same boxing up these top 6 runners.
Kiwis Have A Stranglehold On The Queen Elizabeth Stakes
The 2nd of the G1 features at Randwick on Saturday is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2000m and the Kiwi import runners look to have a stranglehold on the race.
Our top rated elect here is Vosne Romanee who is unfashionably bred by Electric Zone, very much an under-rated sire who itself is by the high class Northern Hemisphere proven sire of sires in the form of Rahy. Vosne Romanee is a triple G1 winner in New Zealand including a win over Red Ruler by 2.3l over 2000m at Ellerslie at the end of last prep. Red Ruler came out and won its next 3 on end and Culminate and Veloce Bella who both finished well back both came and won stakes races quickly after. Vosne Romanee repeated the dose 2nd up this prep winning the G1 New Zealand Stakes over 2000m at Ellerslie with Harris Tweed 2nd that day and Red Ruler back in 4th. He clearly is the most proven 2000m G1 horse in this field. We have him assessed as a 2.71 chance here and is offered up at 13.00 on Betfair and with bookmakers, very big overs.
The 2nd elect for us is Monaco Consul who last prep won the Spring Champion Stakes followed up by the Victorian Derby, he looked to be doing his best work close home when a luckless 3rd to Shoot Out last start in the AJC Derby and that race will eventually prove to be a good form race with a big margin between 4th and 4th suggesting the first 4 home are potentially all well above average stayers on the make. We have him assessed as a 4.07 chance and currently 7.40 is being bet about him on Betfair, good overs.
Our 3rd elect and 4th elect in this race are Doctor Fremantle and Rangirangdoo and both are unders for us compared to their true chances.
We suggest backing both Vosne Romanee and Monaco Consul to win the race as per the suggested outlays in the graphic at the top of this story for a result across the race.
For place punters Vosne Romanee looks the one to be on.
For exotic punters simply box up the top 4 elects as noted in the trifecta.
Zabeel Can Quinella The Sydney Cup
The 3rd G1 race set down for Randwick on Saturday is the 3200m Sydney Cup and as per a majority of 3200m feature staying races over the last 10 years or so in this country the high class staying influence Zabeel is likely to play a major hand.
His lightly raced 4yo daughter Jesicabeel is our clear top elect here after last start taking out the proven Sydney Cup lead up race in the form of the Chairman's Handicap at G2 level over 2600m 2 weeks ago. That day she closed off very strongly to win going away by 2l defeating a very good quality G2 field with the likes of No Wine No Song, Harris Tweed and Precedence left toiling in her wake. She hit the line strongly suggesting the step to 3200m here will totally suit. She gets in here superbly weighted again with only 52kg, she looks a "weighted certainty" on that basis. We have her assessed as a 3.25 chance and currently she is available at 8.40 on Betfair, very good overs.
The major danger and 2nd elect in our eyes is the NZ G1 winning son of Zabeel and proven stayer in the form of Zavite. He donkey licked his rivals in New Zealand 2 starts ago at G1 level over 3200m by 3.3l and then last start was very unlucky when 2nd to Littorio in the G1 BMW over 2400m at WFA. He sat 3 and 4 deep with no cover the entire trip that day and loomed up at the top of the stretch and battled on strong never shirking his task, the big query here for him is how much that effort has taken out of him. He has an iron constitution so we think he will back up well here after the 21 day break. We tipped him last start as the top elect in that race at 50/1 and were unlucky not to get the cash for Advantage Ratings users. We have him assessed as a 4.87 chance in this race and is currently available at 7.40 which is decent overs.
Harris Tweed is our clear 3rd elect in the race, this 4yo son of Montjeu has been very consistent this prep placing 3 of 4 starts at G1 & G2 level including a last start 3rd to Jesicabeel and it is hard to see him turning the tables on her here despite the minor turn around at the weights but weirder things have happened. We have him assessed as a 6.49 chance in this field and currently 11.00 is available on Betfair, at that price he warrants minor support.
The 4th elect for us is the enigmatic type Littorio who got back to career best form blowsing Zavite in the BMW but he may have been fluked and flattered by the trip he got that day. Despite that factor he hit the line strongly and looked good winning. We have him assessed as a 9.74 chance and currently 9.20 is available on the exchanges so he is slight unders for us.
For win punters we suggest following our staking advice on the top 3 elects as per the graphic to the top with the major earn to be made from either Jesicabeel or Zavite taking the prize.
For place punters the value is clearly Jesicabeel rated so far infront of her foes here. Infact for value you may wish to take an all up place ticket on Vosne Romanee into Jesicabeel considering the good value to be had about these 2 highly rated runners in this race and the race prior, it may be the bet of the day!
Exotic punters should simply box up the top 4 elects here in the trifecta.
Melito Set To Continue Her Rise Through The Ranks In The All Aged Stakes
The last of the G1 races on Saturday at Randwick is the All Aged Stakes over 1400m at WFA.
As per usual at this time of the season it is a lightly raced 3yo who looks likely to take another WFA event against the older horses.
Our clear top elect here is the well bred 3yo filly by Redoute's Choice in the form of Melito, last start she came of age winning the G1 TJ Smith Stakes over 1200m unleashing a withering burst from off the pace to blowse a good field including Hot Danish, Mic Mac and Wanted. She hit the line strongly 2nd up that day suggesting the step to 1400m is totally up her alley. She has further scope for improvement in this race and is every chance of hitting a new career peak. We have her assessed as a 3.79 chance and at 6.60 on Betfair currently offers up very good value.
Our 2nd elect here is the 6yo Mujahid (Danzig) gelding Danleigh who 2 starts ago unleashed big closing pars to knock off Dao Dao by 1.8l in the George Ryder but that was on a wet track and the depth of form out of that race is slightly questionable vs what Melito did last start, we have him assessed as a 5.68 chance in this race and at 4.40 on Betfair currently is realistically unders.
Another 3yo in the form of Demerit shapes as our equal 3rd elect here in the form of Demerit. This 3yo colt by Lonhro out of the former very good race mare Shame was one paced 1st up last start behind Hot Danish when 4th but has big scope for further improvement here being so lightly raced and 2nd up over a more suitable trip. Last prep he looked very good defeating Trusting 2nd up in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude at G3 level and on a repeat will figure here. We have him assessed at 7.10 in this race and at 17.00 on Betfair is very good overs. Warrants minor support.
Hot Danish is over-rated in our eyes by the betting public yet to win a G1 race and is equal 3rd elect here with Demerit but is unders at 4.20 on Betfair, steer clear.
The 5th rated runner for us is Mic Mac who 1st up last start finished 3rd to Melito in the TJ Smith but it is hard to see him turning the tables on Melito here the way she finished off over the top of him last start. We have him assessed at 11.36 and currently he is 4.00 on Betfair, big unders.
For win punters we suggest following our advised betting advice for Melito and Demerit as per the graphic to the top.
For place punters once again the value lies with the top elect in the form of Melito.
For exotic punters we suggest backing a combination of the 5 rated runners in the trifecta, taking the top 3 to win and all 5 of them boxed for 2nd and 3rd.
For more FREE racing tips and wagering information over the long weekend log onto our main site at www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au
Below is a sample of our value lays for the meetings from Sandown and Canterbury on Wednesday in Australia. These lays are identified via our unique Advantage Ratings product which has been hailed as "Don Scott on Steroids" in various professional punting circles.
Every one of these runners is clearly marked up under the 10/1 line of betting in early fixed odds markets and should not be laid if they drift out past that price on the exchanges.
Canterbury R3 No2 Falontino
Canterbury R4 No1 Prince Of Hearts
Canterbury R4 No3 Cool Hand James
Canterbury R6 No2 United Harmony
Sandown R4 No2 Mr Riggs
Sandown R5 No5 Two Hills
Sandown R6 No2 Tan Tat Jet
Sandown R7 No2 Cyclone Al
To find out more about out wide range of wagering products visit our main site at www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au
With the UK Flat season now well and truly upon us for 2010 we will be increasing our coverage of UK Racing significantly. More output can be expected to the blog covering UK Racing picks and today we will be highlighting a selection of our Win Bets as we move through the day with fresh selections added periodically to this page as the day progresses (UK time)
Pontefract 4.10 - Itwasonlyakiss (2) - bred for speed by Exceed And Excel, effort 3 back when 2nd to the very smart Above Limits puts it well above the level required to win here, nice price in betting at 5.00 currently on the exchanges, we have it assessed much shorter, best exposed race form in this race and has good scope for more since spelling.
Windsor 6.40 - Eden Nights (1) - well bred 1st starter from the very astute John Gosden yard, by Mr Greeley out of the Favourite Trick mare So Spirited and gets the services of leading hoop William Buick, sold for $350K USD at Keeneland in 08 so it can be suggested it was an above average looking yearling, doesn't need to be anything special to win this, with Desert Liaison dominating the market in the betting this one Eden Nights sneaks in as a good value prospect at 9.60 which is currently on offer.
Windsor 7.40 - Calypso Star (3) - 2 starts this preparation have both been above the level required to win here, closed off strongly at Kempton 1st up scoring by 0.7l suggesting it would be better over further, looked one paced last start but knuckled down in the last 150y to just miss over 10f behind Dromore, clearly beat the rest, this distance now suits 3rd up with further scope, hot yard, query is its pedigree getting the trip but has shown both start this prep it is looking for the 12f, clearly superior to this lot and at 2.70 currently on offer on the exchanges looks minor overs, realistically it should be a 2.40 chance in this market, we predict it will be heavily supported closer to post time so take the 2.70 on offer now as it will be considerably shorter by the time they jump.
No more selections to be added.
For more UK racing coverage go to our main site at www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au daily
With the UK Flat season now well and truly upon us for 2010 we will be increasing our coverage of UK Racing significantly. More output can be expected to the blog covering UK Racing picks and today we will be highlighting a selection of our Lay Bets as we move through the day with fresh selections added periodically to this page as the day progresses (UK time)
Pontefract 2.10 - Sapphire Girl - only averagely bred, sire has 9% strike rate with 2yo's, some other decently bred well connected runners are engaged, currently 3.95, good value lay at that price, scope to lay out further in price as we think it will drfit from that quote.
Pontefract 2.40 - Il Portico - winner last start in a very weak form race at Wolverhampton, the other 2 at the top of the market definitely have more scope than it being Ice Viking and Ting Ting, looks as though the Fallon booking has made people over bet this horse, currently 3.75 being bet, which is good unders compared to our assessment.
Pontefract 3.40 - Born To Perform - there is 4 horses in the main spread of this betting market and Born To Perform is the short priced elect of the 4 at 2.40 on the exchanges, realistically the other 3 all have claims on beating it with the 4 of them all rating similar with a few minor queries, they should be a lot more even in price across the 4 main market contenders, so happy to lay this one on the fact it is considerable unders in our eyes, has its chance but should not be this short, anything out to 2.60 is good value laying material for Born To Perform.
Pontefract 4.10 - Tagseed - has to carry clear topweight here against a decent field of well bred lightly raced improvers with big scope, the Exceed And Excel colt also in the market Itwasonlyakiss looks very well placed on its effort 3 back and the 1st starter and market leader Bated Breath is well related for a smart yard, the only start of Tagseed has very mixed form refs coming out of it, at 3.95 currently 2nd favorite it is a good value lay, realistically we feel it will drift and there is considerable value laying it out further than that price if it drifts in the market as predicted.
Pontefract 4.40 - Ella Woodcock - only moderate form against similar whilst the two at the top of betting have clearly better exposed form being Brushing and Cheers For Thea, currently trading at 8.80 on the exchanges, is realistically a good value lay out to 10.00, we do expect it to drift so get on quickly to secure your price.
Windsor 5.10 - Ginobili - comes into this currently 3rd elect in a wide open market at 7.80 on the exchanges, its last start 2nd suggests it is clearly below the level of the top 2 in the market being Beat The Ball and Afresco who both look clearly atleast 1 level above it as betting indicates, the gap in the first 3 should be wider than it is, happy to risk it here around that price on offer currently of 7.80
Windsor 6.10 - Laudatory - comes into this as the clear market favorite at 4.60 currently but all the others under the 10/1 line of betting (total 4 runners) rate just as well or above it on various form references, as clear cut favorite is definite unders and good laying value, scope to lay it out to 5.00 and still get a good value aspect about it as a lay betting prospect.
No more selections to be added.
For more UK racing coverage go to our main site at www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au daily
Below we have listed our Advantage Ratings for 3 races so far (more races to be added) of Friday horse racing in Australia. On Friday we will be covering racing from 4 different venues around Australia. If time permits we will post more races before 1st post time Friday.
On Saturday last week we gave you top rated winners Crystal Lily & Eclair Mystic for free and got bloused on Zavite at 50/1 in the BMW who was very unlucky as the equal top rated runner along with Harris Tweed.
Forget the form guide, with Advantage Rating no other form tools are necessary, we do all of the work framing a true market to find the value winners. On Friday we cover racing from Geelong, Orange, Wyong and Rockhampton
Scratchings have not been removed at this stage.
This preview also includes the new feature for Advantage Ratings, our high class runner comments giving you further depth than just our rated prices.
For more on Advantage Ratings go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au/advantageratings.html
Below we have listed our Advantage Ratings for 4 races so far (more races to be added) of Sunday horse racing in Australia. On Sunday we will be covering racing from 8 different venues around Australia. If time permits we will post more races before 1st post time Sunday.
On Saturday we gave you top rated winners Crystal Lily & Eclair Mystic for free and got blowsed on Zavite at 50/1 in the BMW who was very unlucky as the equal top rated runner along with Harris Tweed.
Scratchings have not been removed at this stage.
This preview also includes the new feature for Advantage Ratings, our high class runner comments giving you further depth than just our rated prices.
For more on Advantage Ratings go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au/advantageratings.html
A total of 4 Group 1 races are run in The USA on Saturday along with plenty of other good Graded stakes races at lower levels.
We will be covering the 4 G1 races which include:
Below is the the Advantage Ratings previews for the Santa Anita Derby& The Ashland Stakes.
For more info on our main site for Saturday and Sunday racing in The USA and Australia go to www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au
