Australian horse racing on Saturday 20 February comes to us from 10 venues around the country but the feature action is at Caulfield which includes the running the G1 Blue Diamond and G1 Oakliegh plate, below we highlight these 2 events plus plenty more of the action on the feature card from Caulfield. No other site gives you access to such high quality betting information for FREE including the best racing tips on a regular basis. To get more free previews for Saturday and other days visit our website at www.fromthehorsesmouth.com.au, especially the 2 feature FREE tipping services Two Horse Wars and Analytical Angles.
HTML clipboardCaulfield Races Covered
Race 2 - CLAMMS SEAFOOD CLASSIC - 1200m
Race 3 - ROKK EBONY CARLYON CUP - 1400m
Race 4 - BMW ANGUS ARMANASCO STAKES - 1400m
Race 5 - D'URBAN STAKES - 1400m
Race 6 - PURE BLONDE ST GEORGE STAKES - 1800m
Race 7 - ARROWFIELD STUD BLUE DIAMOND STAKES - 1200m
Race 8 - SPORTINGBET OAKLEIGH PLATE - 1100m
Caulfield R2 - the overall class of this field looks clearly
above the advertised $70K purse on offer and we have decided to lean towards
Going Spending with some degree of confidence here who
realistically gets in fairly well weighted down on the minimum especially
considering his recent form including arguably career best form 2 starts ago
when 2nd to Beltrois btn 0.1l over this track and distance, he did all the work
on the front end that day and got beaten in a head bobber by Beltrois with a big
3l margin back to 3rd in $100K Listed company that day, form refs through the
btn brigade reads very well for what it takes on here and it drops 0.5kg for
that run, back in 07 this horse was only btn 3l at Apache Cat at Listed level so
it obviously has its fair share of ability and is consistently producing big
runs this prep finishing 2nd its last 4 starts on end, if it can reproduce that
run from 2 starts ago and continue to hold its form it will shake the life out
of this race and at 9/2 with bookmakers in early markets in excellent value.
BETTING ADVICE
No10 Going Spending - 3 units win
No10 Going Spending - 4 units place
Caulfield R3 - Only 6 runners greet the judge here so the pace
scenario will be critical with Danzylum the only noted leader in the field but
he does not have the class on his side to hold this overly strong field at bay
in deep stretch for the advertised Group 3 level assigned, a few of these are G2
quality gallopers and they are the ones who make the most appeal here especially
Vigor who is 1st up from a spell for the Danny O'Brien yard, he
is yet to win 1st up from a spell but we are not too concerned with that factor
as his other 1st up runs have been over shorter trips and it was not until 2nd
up last preparation that he proved the high class animal he is by knocking of
Typhoon Tracy, Master O'Reilly and Heart Of Dreams amongst others in the Makybe
Diva Stakes over 1600m at Group 2 WFA level, the form out of that race is
clearly stronger than any other form here and it is likely D Oliver will settle
him closer to the pace than usual, all he needs to do is switch off in the run
then release his customary strong closing pars and he should have this lot
covered, we are confident enough in his chances to assign a level (2) rating to
this galloper despite being 1st up, currently he is offered up at 11/4 with
bookmakers and we feel he may even come into equal favouritism in this race by
jump time, anything better than 9/4 is good value.
BETTING ADVICE
No2 Vigor - 3 units win
Caulfield R4 - Set For Fame has been made a clear cut favourite
here in early betting markets on the back of her 1st up win in the Kevin Hayes
Stakes (Lst 1200m) on this track but we feel the depth of form out of that race
is questionable considering what she takes on here in terms of proven class, not
to say that she does deserve to be high up in the betting but there is one other
runner who produced a massive effort 1st up last start of better merit that is
subject to big improvement going to 1400m and may be back to her best here 2nd
up and that is
Rostova, her early 2yo form last season around
this time of year was nothing short of spectacular winning 4 of her first 5
starts only being beaten in the Blue Diamond, all other 4 starts she won by
clearly more than 2l including a 2.5l win over Irish Lights at her 2nd career
start in the Blue Diamond Preview, she raced on that preparation into the Golden
Slipper and Sires Produce in Sydney and was obviously over taxed that
preparation as she did not come back up in the Spring but her 1st up run this
preparation when flashing big closing pars behind Here De Angels and Lucky
Secret on this track over 1100m making up clearly the most ground suggests she
is going to relish the 1400m trip 2nd up here and hit her peak form again, in
that race she went straight past Avenue and Irish Lights leaving them standing
still and it is hard to see Irish Lights turning the tables on her here going on
that run,
Jolie Brise is the other one of interest and has
since won a strong trial after failing 1st up behind Set For Fame and at the big
price of 25/1 with bookmakers early in betting she also offers good value but it
is Rostova who looks clearly the one to beat here going on her 1st up run and at
5/1 in early markets is good value, it is likely she will drift out to closer to
6/1 come post time, we will back both for a result across the race.
BETTING ADVICE
No1 Rostova - 2 units win
No8 Jolie Brise - 1 unit win
No1 Rostova - 4 units place
Caulfield R5 - It is clearly obvious to one and all how good of
a horse
Denman is, he is a Group 1 quality galloper of the
highest order and the scary thing is that he still has further scope for
improvement, the rest of this field struggles to come up to the advertised G2
level of this race under the race conditions, the big question becomes what is
the value price for Denman vs this field, he looks the obvious winner,
bookmakers around the country are quoting him as a 1.22 to 1.25 chance in
betting, there is the possibility he will be bet at 1.30 at some stage, at the
odds of 1.30 he has to win this race 3.3 times out of every 4.3 times the race
is run to break square on him as a betting proposition at those odds, we are
talking about horse racing remember!, with luck such a big factor in horse
racing especially from the unforseen angle it is suggested that at this price of
even 1.30 he is not a betting commodity, simply watch him go around and enjoy
seeing such a high class animal doing his thing.
BETTING ADVICE
No Bets in this race
Caulfield R6 - The overall quality of this field on paper is up
to the advertised G2 level of this race but some of those that are proven G1
horses such as Shocking and Viewed are better suited over further and are being
aimed at the Australian cup, we expect both of those horses to need another run
yet and we must remember this is WFA,
Heart Of Dreams on the
other hand is a proven G1 WFA winner over this track and distance and 3rd up
last preparation took out the Underwood Stakes by 0.4l defeating Whobetgotyou
and Predatory Pricer, the form out of that race is true G1 quality with
Whobetgotyou the start prior winning the Dato Chin Nam and start after winning
the Yalumba Stakes, Predatory Pricer at his next start finished 0.1l 2nd to
Efficient in the Turnbull Stakes, 4th home Maldivian was btn 1.2l by Efficient
in the Turnbull next start whilst 5th home Red Ruler was only btn 1.3l by
Efficient in the Turnbull next start and this preparation has won 3 Group races
on end at his last 3 starts after finishing 2nd to Vosnee Romanee in G1 company
at Ellerslie over 2000m, no matter where you look the form out of that Yalumba
Stakes win has been totally franked, 1st up this preparation Heart Of Dreams
chased home the ultra high class mare Typhoon Tracy finishing 2nd btn 1.8l in
the CF Orr Stakes over 1400m, he will have come on significantly for that run,
Sirmione ran a bolter in the same race but he really is an in and out sort of
customer and no where near as consistent as Heart Of Dreams, Speed Gifted is 1st
up from a spell for Freedman and has good scope but his form suggests at WFA he
is only a G2 quality horse at best and despite winning 1st up last prep he takes
on much stronger 1st up here, Changingofthegaurd is the high profile former UK
galloper with David Hayes and his best form is over 10f (2000m) but he is out of
a Marju mare and is likely to have been trained differently by Hayes so he is
the query runner to some respect but the bottom line here is Heart Of Dreams has
been there and done this already and has come back in sensational order, he
clearly looks the top elect, we have marked him up as a strong level (2)
selection and anything better than 7/4 represents value, currently he is being
offered up by bookmakers at 2/1 and is 9/4 on the exchanges, we do expect the
money to come for him so the current odds offered should be snapped up, you may
be lucky and get 9/4 with bookmakers at some stage but expect him to shorten in
just below 2/1 come closer to post time.
BETTING ADVICE
No4 Heart Of Dreams - 4 units win
Caulfield R7 - Realistically we feel there is 4 serious chances in this
race being Beneteau,
Legalistic, Crystal Lilly and
Psychologist, of those 4 we prefer 2 of them to annex the event and
they offer up very good value, the best value commodity in the race is the David
Hayes trained Legalistic, he is a very well bred colt by Encosta De Lago out of
the G3 winning Snippets mare Legally Bay and comes into this having its 2nd
career start with big scope for further improvement on the back of breaking its
maiden at Sale by a widening 7l margin, he is drawn out in the 12 alley and did
lead at Sale but the overall pace of that race was not great so we feel he is
more likely to take a sit tracking the other 4 potential leaders in the race and
hence get a very good trip, the way he accelerated at Sale on the slow track
after doing all the work in front does suggest he will be much better taking a
sit and the form references out of that maiden win do read very well despite
only being a maiden, obviously he may have been flattered margin wise on the wet
track that day but he has the most scope for improvement of all of these being
so lightly raced and he is bred to be top class and the stable knows how to win
feature Group 2yo races, at odds of 25/1 with bookmakers he offers up
sensational value and is a great each way play, the other major hope in our eyes
is the highly impressive debut G3 winner Psychologist who blew away the fillies
in the 2nd lot of lead up races 14 days ago on this track over 1100m by 4.3l,
she possesses a pure speed pedigree by Choisir out of the Danzero mare Miss
Conception, the big query for her is the wide gate she has drawn but she has
abundant early speed and if she jumps on que there is every chance she will get
across the face of this field without working too hard early, that is the big
key to her chances, her gate speed does seem greater than anything else in this
race, she is currently trading at 6/1 in early fixed odds markets and has been
supported in from 7/1, it is likely she will come in for further support and may
end up at the 5/1 or 11/2 mark come post time, Beneteau is undefeated in 2
career starts but we feel the depth of his last start win is not that great but
he is still the best of the rest along with Crystal Lilly who won the fillies
version in the 1st lot of lead up races 4 weeks ago and form lines can be found
putting Psychologist clearly infront of her and winners in the first lot of lead
up races have a bad record in this main Blue Diamond race.
BETTING ADVICE
No8 Legalistic - 2 units win
No13 Psychologist - 2 units win
No8 Legalistic - 2 units place
Caulfield R8 - We feel that there is only 3 realistic chances
in this race and they all have some sort of queries around them so confidence is
not great but value is decent so we can back 2 of them for a result across the
race, the major chances lie with
Weekend Hussler,
Lucky
Secret and Wanted, decided to lean towards Lucky Secret on top here
going on his 3rd up win last preparation over 1000m on this track when he
annexed the Schillaci Stakes, that day he defeated Apache Cat and Wanted in a
high class display of speed 2.3*1l, form references out of that race when lined
up back to this field suggest he is the winner clearly if he can repeat that
run, he is better off at the weights vs Wanted on that run, he gave Wanted 5.5kg
that day and only gives him 3kg here, the major query around Lucky Secret is his
very average effort 1st up when btn by Here De Angels but Tony Vasil would have
not pushed on into this race if he felt all was not right with Lucky Secret, we
take it on trust that he has him at the top of his game for this race and the
booking of Damien Oliver adds confidence, the other major hope we will be
backing is Weekend Hussler who won this race in 2008 by 1.8l defeating Magnus,
he is drawn wide here and is coming off a 371 day break but reports from
connections suggest he is ready for this despite negative press suggesting the
opposite, the pace scenario will totally suit Weekend Hussler who has the
tactical speed to be close enough in transit likely taking a sit tracking from
midfield or better, his versatile nature to accelerate from anywhere in a field
should see him be able to negate the wide gate by being ridden for cover where
ever he can get in early in the run, Wanted is the perennial bridesmaid and
looks the best of the rest and may be the bridesmaid again here, Lucky Secret is
4/1 in early markets and should drift out a bit from that price and Weekend
Hussler is 11/1 coming in for mild support from 14/1 early which is a good sign,
they can both be backed for a result across the race.
BETTING ADVICE
No2 Lucky Secret - 2 units win
No1 Weekend Hussler - 1 unit win
