Falmouth Stakes, Cherry Hinton Stakes, Newmarket July Festival Day 2 Assessed Market Prices & Odds

After a very successful day on Thursday we tackle the Falmouth Stakes at G1 level and The Cherry Hinton at Group 2 level for Fridays Newmarket July Festival action along with other races from Ascot & York. For the best value win bets, place bets and lay bets just follow these ratings and bet accordingly by following the assessed odds for each runner to identify the best value in each race.

Newmarket 3.00 - 1m 90K G1 3yo+f&m
No1 Antara        14.00
No2 First City        25.00
No3 I'm A Dreamer    9.50
No4 Lily Of The Valley    5.50
No5 River Jetez        6.50
No6 Sahpresa        8.30
No7 Timepiece        23.00
No8 Joviality        11.00
No9 Maqaasid        8.30
No10 Masaya        51.00
No11 Memory        15.00

Newmarket 2.25 - 6f 34K G2 2yof
No1 Betty Fontaine    55.00
No2 Caledonia Lady    19.00
No3 Gamilati        8.20   
No4 Illaunglass        17.50
No5 Inetrobil        10.30
No6 Miss Work Of Art    25.50
No7 My Propeller    3.60
No8 Pink Sapphire    29.00
No9 Ruselliana        14.00
No10 Sajwah        22.00
No11 Shumoos        5.50

York 2.35 - 6f 29K G3 3yo+f&m
No1 Anne Of Kiev    11.00
No2 Dever Dream        19.00
No3 Dubai Media        31.00
No4 Picadilly Filly    13.00
No5 Puff        5.70
No6 Rose Blossom    11.00
No7 Sioux Rising    8.50
No8 Swiss Diva        6.10
No9 Ladies Are Forever    8.00
No10 Show Rainbow    13.00

Ascot 3.25 - 6f110y 6.4K C4 2yo
No1 Red Seventy        4.00
No2 Sixx        3.80
No3 Abshir Zian        13.50
No4 Bellechance        17.00
No5 Poetic Dancer    2.85

York 4.20 - 7f 7.4K C3 3yo 0-95
No1 Zenella        4.40
No2 Rigoletto        7.20
No3 Glady's Gal        13.00
No4 Firebeam        6.50
No5 Ashva        7.50
No6 Robert The Painter    28.00
No7 Fieldgunner Kirkup    16.00
No8 Iceblast        13.00
No9 Fityaan        20.00
No10 City Legend    15.00

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Newmarket July Festival Day 1 UK Horse Racing Assessed Markets

The Newmarket July Festival starts on Thursday for UK horse racing enthusiasts with a high quality card at Newmarket supported by good quality betting meetings at Folkestone and Warwick during the day that we have also assessed and handicapped for this post. Ratings for a total of 12 races are listed below. Each horse is rated to our value price point in a market set to approximately 100%.

Newmarket 1.20 - 13f 28K G3 3yo
14.00 - No1 Census
38.00 - No2 Crimson Knight
5.50 - No3 Hurricane Higgins
6.20 - No4 Marked Marvel
3.50 - No5 Solar sky
3.30 - No6 Zain Al Boldan

Newmarket 1.50 - 6f 34K G2 2yoc&g
25.00 - No1 Bannock
13.00 - No2 Church Music
4.00 - No3 Frederick Engels
51.00 - No4 Kenny Powers
6.00 - No5 North Star Boy
6.50 - No6 Right To Dream
3.70 - No7 Roman soldier
21.00 - No8 Sans Loi

Newmarket 3.00 - 12f 45K G2 3yo+
16.00 - No1 Afsare
7.50 - No2 Campanolo*ist
9.50 - No4 Laaheeb
5.20 - No5 Redwood
15.00 - No6 Tedspread
6.00 - No7 Crystal Capella
10.50 - No8 Myplacelater
9.50 - No9 Buthelizi
8.00 - No10 Dordogne

Newmarket 3.35 - 6f 7.7K C3 2yo
6.00 - No1 Hadaj
3.40 - No2 Harbour Watch
3.70 - No3 Burwaaz
5.40 - No4 Citizen's Character
18.00 - No5 Bellechance
30.00 - No6 Dawn Lightning

Newmarket 4.05 - 8f 8K C3 3yo
6.60 - No1 Casual Glimpse
2.30 - No2 Fury
5.60 - No3 Cai Sheen
10.50 - No4 Bridgefield
7.00 - No5 Slim Shadey

Folkestone 2.05 - 7f 1.7K C6 3yo
2.30 - No1 Perfect Cracker
18.00 - No2 Samanda
14.00 - No3 Semmsu
121.00 - No4 Trust Me Boy
7.00 - No5 Celestyna
14.00 - No6 Elusive Diva
4.60 - No7 Swift Bird

Folkestone 2.40 - 5f 3.1K C5 2yof
12.00 - No1 Almirah
9.60 - No2 Dine Out
30.00 - No3 Especially Red
11.00 - No4 Misred Melissa
61.00 - No5 Monessa
1.40 - No6 Pearl Diva

Folkestone 3.15 - 5f 2.3K C5 3yo+ 0-70
7.20 - No1 Make My Dream
3.30 - No2 Your Gifted
5.80 - No3 Athwaab
6.50 - No4 Musical Bridge
5.80 - No5 Commandingpresence
11.00 - No6 Durgan

Folkestone 4.20 - 12f 2.3K C5 3yo 0-70
4.30 - No1 Brezza Di Mare
6.60 - No2 Dare To Bare
4.00 - No3 Fire Fighter
4.30 - No4 Astromagick
6.60 - No5 Drumadoon

Folkestone 4.50 - 9f149y 2.3K C5 3yo+f 0-70
4.70 - No1 Sweet Secret
4.20 - No2 Choral Festival
6.00 - No3 Woop Woop
5.20 - No4 Chatterer
11.00 - No5 Full Bloom
19.00 - No6 Lady Barastar
14.00 - No7 Out Of The Storm

Warwick 3.55 7f26y 5.1K C4 3yo+ 0-80
4.70 - No1 No Poppy
7.60 - No2 Queen Of Cash
11.00 - No3 Camache Queen
8.00 - No4 Poyle Judy
4.20 - No5 Saskia's Dream
8.00 - No6 Mrs Greeley
25.00 - No7 Herminella
16.00 - No8 Ellie In The Pink

Warwick 5.35 5f 2.5K 3yo 0-75 6.00par
5.70 - No1 Scarlet Rocks
10.00 - No2 Sugar Beet
4.60 - No3 Midnight Rider
14.00 - No4 Liberty Green
4.00 - No5 Farlow
8.80 - No6 Whitecrest
55.00 - No7 Brian Sprout
18.00 - No8 Porthgwidden Beach

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Wodonga Race Notes - Saturday 2 July 2011

Notes from our analysts for the Wodonga race meeting scheduled in Australia on Saturday 2 July 2011, plenty of good value betting prospects to be had.

Wodonga R1
No6 Vacherin (1) - 2 trial wins in prep for debut suggest above this level, well bred by Antonius Pius, 3rdd dam high class French multiple black type winner, alley a minor concern drawn in 12 but booking of good hoop Luke Currie a bonus, overly average type of 2yo maiden for the tag, every chance.

Wodonga R2
No4 Notius (3) - looks overly hard to beat drawn a perfect gate on the back of deceivingly strong maiden placings suggesting minimum 1 level above class required to win here.
No7 Ed's Folly (1) - shocking gate but trial 2nd in prep for return and 2nd up 1.7l 4th last prep both suggest potentially above the level required to win here, blinkers go on 1st time, back if at odds.

Wodonga R3
No10 Carbon Spirit (1) - very good merit in last start 5th, got back to last and btn 5.1l on line but form of those around it very good, well bred, good scope for more naturally, well drawn
No8 Romantic Tiger (1) - good ob debut 2nd at Kilmore over 1212m, best of the on pacers, failed 2nd up, deceivingly well bred by Hold That Tiger out of the very good country sprinter Romantic Sea, bad gate the only big negative but does have very good gate speed, may cross without working too hard and prove hard to run down.
No2 Alzone

Wodonga R5
No13 Mancarifo (1) - 15+?, comes out of a very good merit 3rd at Swan Hill last start, big closing pars, scope for more only 2nd career start that day, 1st home won at Morphettville next start and 2nd home broke maiden by 5l at Ararat next start, gets a good gate
No7 Renounce (1) - 15?, placed 7 of last 8, this about weakest it has faced and every chance in this company, overly well bred by God's Own out of the high class race mare Spurn, bad gate, astute yard.

Wodonga R6
No4 Manicero - 3.20
No6 Rathbarry - 6.00
No3 Livia - 6.50
No1 Murdoch's Joy - 6.50

Wodonga R7
No9 Powerhouse - 15+??, oof/lr
No17 Beaten By The Bell - 12+??, decent merit associated to Picnic win at Corowa 2 back over 1200m, ran 0.32s quicker than Wonderling and drops 5kg compared to Wonderling dropping 1kg here, scope for more up to 1400m, drawn well, good pace profile for this race drawn in the 2 alley, may surprise at big odds.

Wodonga R8
No8 Provindential - 15+?, drawn the 1 alley, major seen chance on 1200m from across last prep, scope for more on 1st up effort btn 1.9l at Seymour over shorter vs stronger than advertised grade here, drawn the 1 alley for one of the runs of the race.
No14 Meet Barney - 15+?, well in on maiden win at Geelong 3 back over 1000m, scope for more this trip, likely good trip, gets run as 1st emergency with Onamissionfromgod an early scratching,
No5 Boy Incredible - 12-15+?, decent claims on maiden win last prep, lightly raced, deceivingly well bred, scope for more
No9 Bleaching - 12-15+?, looked good big closing pard winning 2 back, has won vs stronger, warrants respect
No3 Rab - 15+??,
No17 Till Dawn - 12-15+??

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YORK 3.35 - MARGOT DID CAN ATONE

The 3.35 from York on Thursday does look to offer up very good value for punters. Exceed And Excel filly Margot Did holds an entry for the G1 Golden Jubilee and last season finished 2nd 3 starts on end in G2 & G3 company beaten each time by Memory, Sooraya and Hooray, that form has been franked over and over again since. 1st up this season she got too far back and flashed big closing pars when 3rd to Perfect Tribute who since has won at Group 3 level, form franked again. The drop back to 5f here is interesting but she has a true speed pedigree and the fact that she is dropping back to 5f here makes us think she may race closer to the pace.

On bare form she looks to have the measure of the early odds-on favorite Night Carnation and as 2nd favorite in this market at 3.70 Margot Did shapes as good betting value in the win market. Big money is around for her and that price is expected to firm.

Get on early as anything above 3.00 is good value about this proven Group quality sprinting speed filly.

So the bet is......

York 3.35 No6 Margot Did - 2 units win at 3.70.

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YORK 3.00 - POTENTIAL BIG RESULT LOOMS

The 3.00 from York on Thursday offers up extremely good value for punters. We have identified 3 here at good double figure odds that can be backed for a result across the race.

No8 CRYSTAL GAL was 7th in the Irish 1000 Guineas last season (strong renewal), hasnt been at its best since but it carries the best nick in racing by Galileo out of a Danehill mare, if it hits that form here 2nd up it has claims trading at 26.00 on Betfair.

No4 BALDUCCI knocked off Al Farahidi last season over 8f at Haydock which is a strong form ref for this and prior ran 2nd to the overly smart Oasis Dancer, those form refs give it big claims here, adaptable racing style so alley no major query, trading at 14.00 it can also be backed in the win market.

No6 CAPITAL ATTRACTION was pulled up having its 1st start this season but the astute yard of Henry Cecil pushes on in strong company here and the yard is in form currently, their opinion has to be respected, drawn the inside gate it is bred to be a Group horse and has shown signs of same in its short career, good scope for more, trading at 50.00 on Betfair it also has to be included in betting.

So we will back 3 here for a result across the race, the betting advice is as follows......

York 3.00 No4 Balducci - 2 units win @ 14.00
York 3.00 No8 Crystal Gal - 1 unit win @ 26.00
York 3.00 No6 Capital Attraction - 1 unit win @ 50.00

We will also be attacking one of these for the PLACE for Fifty50Share punters but that info is kept close to our chest so as not to destroy the value.

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SALISBURY 2.10 - ISTISHAARA GREAT VALUE EACH WAY

The 2.10 from Salisbury on Thursday shapes as a perfect opportunity for the superbly bred ISTASHAARA to get off to a winning start for its 3yo season. The Kingmambo filly was overly impressive holding sway over Devastation at the end of its 2yo year over 8f at Nottingham on good to slow going. Devastation came out and franked the form next start winning in decent style and the other margins further back in that win of Istashaara's also adds good depth to the form.

The depth of this race is not great for the class and is should be able to handle the top weight allocation here. The yard is in good form with 10 of John Dunlops last 11 runners improving or atleast holding their last start level at their most recent start.

The one concern is the drift in price from 6.00 out to 9.60 in the early betting exchange action but we are prepared to take that risk at the good value price.

Currently on offer at 9.60 and 4.20 in the place market (only 2 place dividends) Istashaara shapes as a good value betting commodity that can be backed with mild confidence each way.

So the bet is....

Salisbury 2.10 No1 Istashaara - 1 unit win, 2 units place

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YORK 2.00 - MIDDAY SET FOR WINNING RETURN IN G2 MIDDLETON

Midday has her 1st start of the season in the G2 Midddleton Stakes on Thursday and shapes as very well placed, last season she also resumed in this race and was 2nd to another very high class G1 quality female in the form of Sariska, after that she reeled off 3 G1 wins on end including the Yorkshire Oaks. There is no Sariska in this field she faces this year despite being a bigger field than last year and the Henry Cecil yard is in tip top form over the last 14 days (not taking into account yesterdays 2 below par results at this meeting). Despite the G1 penalty and having to give weight to all of her rivals she does look extremely hard to beat here. Currently on offer at 2.30 she shapes as good value. We have her rated a 2.20 chance so minor overs are on offer.

Get on Midday as a great way to start off the 2nd day of the York meeting in the 2.00

So the bet is.....

York 2.00 No1 Midday - 4 unit win bet @ 2.30.

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YORK 3.35 - YET ANOTHER GOOD VALUE BETTING AFFAIR

Another big field here for the 3.35 at York on Wednesday and it shapes as another good value betting affair. We have identified 2 horses here that both have serious claims and are likely to provide FTHM punters with another winning collect.

No4 DOCTOR SHIVAGO has been definitely under-estimated by the betting public here available at 20.00 on the exchanges in early betting. By Shamardal out of a Sadler's Wells mare it showed last start it was getting back to a decent level when chasing home Cono Zur at Beverley and is likely to improve considerably on that performance being upped to 12f here, last season at Newbury in the middle of May he finished 3rd to Green Moon and Monterosso btn a big margin of 7.5l but held sway over other smart types and a repeat of that form here will see it shake the life out of this race at good double figure odds. The other one that requires serious consideration is No6 SATWA MOON and the betting public do seem to agree having posted it as a 7.00 favorite in early exchange markets. He is by the under-rated Champion South African horse Horse Chestnut from a decent American female family, he has big scope for further improvement on its first up effort and if we go on the 3rd to Indian Days over 10f at Goodwood last season it seems very much well in here, no reason it cant hit that level again drawn well in the 7 alley. Back both in the win market for a result across the race.

So the betting is.....

York 3.35 No4 Doctor Shivago - 1 unit win @ 20.00
York 3.35 No6 Satwa Moon - 2 units win @ 7.00

Doctor Shivago is also worthwhile playing in the PLACE BETTING market as a semi solid betting proposition.

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YORK 2.00 - SHROPSHIRE SUPER HARD TO BEAT

The 2.00 at York on Wednesday marks an excellent opportunity to go after a high quality betting commodity in the form of the lightly race Shamardal colt Shropshire.

He is 2nd up from a spell here on the back of running a very credible 3rd to Frankel last start despite being beaten 10l, his debut win last season over 6f at Haydock by 4l on good to soft going maarked him a potential blacktype horse and that 1st up effort behind Frankel confirmed that thought.

Currently on offer at 2.90 on the exchanges he does look good value as a high quality win bet. Realistically anything better than 2.50 is good value here. We expect it to firm slightly in price from its current quote so it may well be worthwhile getting on early whilst the value exists.

So the bet is......

York 2.00 No1 Shropshire - 4 unit win bet @ 2.90

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York 1.30 On Wednesday Full Of Value To Kick Off Dante Meeting

The York Dante festival / meeting kicks off on Wednesday for UK horse racing followers and FromTheHorsesMouth followers and the first race on the card (1.30 Infinity Tyres Stakes) shapes as a good value betting affair with a big field of 20 engaged. Our analysts have found enough depth in the market to back 4 runners here for a result across the race.

York 1.30 - Very open affair with 20 runners engaged, hard to line them up with big confidence but the value on offer about the ones we like here makes it a potential good betting affair, realistically it will take a horse of potential Group quality to win here, likely trips also become paramount with such a big field engaged. We will back a few here for a result across the race. No18 CALDERCRUIX shapes as being well placed here and gets in very well weighted vs most of the other seen major chances, off the boil towards the 2nd half of last season but its effort running 2nd to Monterosso at Newmarket over 10f reads well, a repeat of that form will see it shake this at a big price, being bet at 40.00 on the exchanges early, great value, No1 RESURGE has a big weight to carry but looked to have hit a new peak 1st up last start when 2nd to Spanish Duke btn 1l at Epsom with good margins further back adding considerable depth to the form, being bet at 30.00 early it has to be included. No10 DIESCENTRIC has only faced the starter twice and won on debut over 8f at Newmarket last season and must be respected on that form reference, it has scope to improve considerably being so lightly raced and the yard is in very good form, currently being bet at 10.00 it is worth minor support, No20 PEKAN STAR has a shocking gate but gets in very well weighted as a lightly tried son of Montjeu for the astute Roger Varian yard who is placing his horses to perfection early in the season, at 7.80 on the exchanges we must save on it.

No18 CALDERCRUIX - 1 unit win @ 40.00
No1 RESURGE - 1 unit @ 30.00
No10 DIESCENTRIC - 2 units @ 10.00
No20 PEKAN STAR - 2 units @ 7.80

Both Caldercruix and Resurge can be backed in the PLACE market at very good odds for place punters as well.

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